re: Hurricane Season - TD9 - Oh Boy

NHC has it becoming a hurricane and eventually reaching 100 mph sustained winds (Cat 2).

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure locatedover the southwestern Gulf of America has recently developed a
closed circulation, though it might still be elongated. Associated showers and thunderstorms have also become better organized, and this system now meets the criteria to be a tropical depression, the
ninth one of the season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The depression has barely moved over the past 6 to 12 hours, with the initial motion estimated to be 120/1 kt. The cyclone is expected to track slowly eastward or east-northeastward during the next couple of days while it moves in the flow near the base of a broad deep-layer trough, and could bring gusty winds and heavy rains to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. By Friday, a sharp turn to the northeast is expected when a shortwave
trough forms over Texas and a ridge strengthens over the western Atlantic. This pattern change should cause the system to accelerate toward the northern Gulf Coast on Friday and into early Saturday. The NHC track forecast lies near the fast side of the guidance, in best agreement with the GDMI and ECAI aids. It should be noted that
there is significant uncertainty in where the system makes the northeast turn and how fast it moves toward the coast. It appears
that the stronger the system gets, the faster it will move toward the coast given the strength of the deep-layer flow. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently sampling the environment and special upper-air soundings are being deployed over the south-central U.S. The
assimilation of these data into the dynamical models should improve their representation of the current environmental conditions, ideally yielding more reliable track and intensity guidance.

The environmental conditions appear generally conducive for strengthening over the next few days, and given that the storm appears compact, it will likely steadily strengthen during that time. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Based on the environmental conditions and the model guidance, the cyclone
will likely peak in strength before reaching the coast. Although not seen in the forecast, some weakening seems likely when the storm nears the Gulf Coast due to an increase in vertical wind shear, but it is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall. This forecast is in fair agreement with the consensus aids, but it should be noted that there are skillful models that are higher than the current forecast.

Although the storm is expected to be compact for the next few days, it will likely grow significantly in size, particularly on the
eastern side, when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Therefore, based on the forecast uncertainty and expected larger size, users
are urged not to focus on the forecast points and stay tuned to updates.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge
impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and watches could
be required on Wednesday. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

2. The system will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central
U.S. Gulf coast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding,
along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.

3. Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico: The depression is expected to
strengthen and could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to
the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.1N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.1N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.6N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 23.1N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 90.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 88.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 34.0N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1800Z 38.9N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

I remember the other day about several coastal radar installations that were down.

Does anyone know if they have they been repaired?

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Yep, done deal, baws. Close this thread and get back to work.

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This needs to head to Mobile Bay or east. Anything from Ms River to Biloxi would be bad news for me and mine

Gulf Shores right in the bullseye :-(

Might actually be better for it to be slower and more southward because it likely means if it turns to Louisiana it's at worst a tropical storm and some parts of Louisiana need rain badly.

I wonder what the tornado threat will be with this storm

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Thats like the intensity of that giant storm on Jupiter.

I don't think that's even close. 909mb has been achieved multiple times on earth and even in the Atlantic basin. It's rare, but it happens.

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Correct.

For a serious comparison, 909 is roughly Camille at landfall. Katrina and Andrew were low 920s.

Shameless plug of my hurricane app:

Landfall

Hey man I wish this back on you from Mobile Bay. No take backs, double k and double r, triple dog dare

From watching this weather shite for the last three or four hours today, this is the best I can tell.

The models are coming together on the area of land fall and impact and everybody that’s over 50 should be familiar with that because we’ve only seen it 20 fricking times and it’s essentially Biloxi to Mobile. Pulse or minus 50 miles.

The intensity is where is really huge variations in the models. Some of the models anticipated it becoming a tropical storm earlier, which is already happened so that’s one factor that we don’t have to worry about. Obviously location of the initial eye.

Then reallythe principal factor is how fast the storm comes in. if it comes in fast and it’s Friday landfall it’s likely to be a tropical storm. Because the wind sheers will still be off the coast and they will greatly reduce its power before it hits landfall. however, if it comes in slower, which is also starting to show some indications that may be the situation, it is much more likely to become at least a hurricane and very, possibly a cat two or three hurricane. They are saying the wind sheer will contract m, be weaker then and will not influence its development as much.

I’ll let you guys discuss the actual landfall area if it comes in slower, or raster but obviously some people are gonna do much better off than others in that situation. (Sorry put I am pulling for a slow storm that as it missses me completely)