re: Hurricane Season - TD9 - Oh Boy

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909mb at Morgan City according to the Koreans.

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Whats that... like a cat 8


Laughs nervously. Thats like the intensity of that giant storm on Jupiter.

Awww shite

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Obligatory we will have a much better idea by this Friday night

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I think our pool of information and data will increase 3-4 fold over the next 36-48 hours.

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Holy fricking shite...Korean Model

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That hurricane luv you long time

“Isaias”? I have never heard that before and I’m old. Are the drug companies naming these now?

I'm still pretty ticked off they aren't doing a lower level flight till tomorrow. I understand why (to an extent)

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“Isaias”? I have never heard that before and I’m old. Are the drug companies naming these now?

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Nah man it’s these new aged college liberals that are naming storms

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Greetings all,

I’m brand spanking new to this hurricane business. Now that this storm is a 100% certainty, at what point is a good time to go to my local Publix to stock up on bread and milk? I’m hearty midwestern folk used to heavy snowstorms, so I’m not scared about some wind and rain. Lol!

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Minnesota native eh? There aren't any Publix locations west of the AL/MS border so you must either be in the Mobile, AL area or the Florida panhandle between Pensacola Beach and Destin.

I'd make a store run and would go ahead and top off your fuel tank when this storm gets a name. Get some batteries and candles too in case you lose power. A lot of the posters on this board will tell you from experience that getting gas after a big storm is one of the biggest pains in the arse. Lines can be very long at the few stations that have power and fuel. That and being without power for an extended period of time.

Riding out thw core of a Cat 2 or higher hurricane is no joke if you've never experienced one. I rode out the eyewall of Hurricane Sally (high end Cat 2) in Daphne, AL which is about 20 miles inland from Gulf Shores.

Power was out and my cell phone was almost dead at about 5:00 am when we finally got into the calm eye of the storm. Went outside hopped in my car and drove about a half mile away to the edge of my neighborhood to the first street light that was working. The storm shifted northeast bringing my suddenly back into the edge of the northwestern eyewall and all hell broke loose again. Had to turn my Honda Accord parallel to the wind because I could feel my car wanting to lift up from the 90 to 100 mph wind gusts hitting my car roadside. Sat there for a solid hour in the chaos waiting for "daylight" because I wasn't about to head back past the heavily wooded area between my house and risk having one of those massive pine trees come down on top of me. It finally lightened up and a modular building about 250 yards yards from where I was riding out the worst part of the storm there in my car had been destroyed by either a brief spin up tornado or from the 90 to 100 mph wind gust themselves.

Moral of the story. Don't get out and about in your car when you're in the eyewall of a hurricane like my dumbass did...lol

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TROPICS/THE WEEKEND: Satellite images and surface observations indicate that showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized while surface pressures are gradually falling around Invest 92L in the Southwest Gulf. NHC gives the system a 100 percent chance of development.

Here are my key messages...

*Most reliable models and their ensemble members bring the system to the Central Gulf Coast anywhere from Fort Morgan to Navarre Beach Saturday or Saturday night. Intensity guidance continues to be more aggressive, and odds are increasing that this will be a hurricane at the time of landfall. The name will be Isaias.

*Those on the Gulf Coast from Bay St Louis, Mississippi to 30A in Florida (Seagrove Beach, Rosemary Beach, Sunnyside, etc) need to think about hurricane preparations. Be ready to put your plan into action if you are placed in a hurricane warning later this week. This includes all of the Alabama coast.

*The system will encounter stronger winds aloft/shear near the coast; this should prevent rapid intensification.

*At the moment it looks like Saturday will be a very wet and potentially a very windy day for much of Alabama. Flooding will be a concern, and there could be a few isolated tornadoes. SPC has already defined a risk of isolated tornadoes over parts of South Alabama on the day five outlook.

*But if the system slows down as it approaches the coast the main impact could hold off until late Saturday night and Sunday. A few global models show this solution. But most ensemble members suggest our main impact in Alabama will be Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday morning.

*Isaias will most likely be a high impact event for the Gulf Coast and the state of Alabama, but it is important to note that it is still too early for a specific impact forecast for any place (rain totals, peak wind gusts, etc). Once the system develops a good low level circulation, and we get dropsonde data from hurricane hunter aircraft (the NOAA Gulfstream jet is in the area now), forecast confidence will ramp up.

*There are many big events going on, including the National Shrimp Festival in Gulf Shores, the Alabama/Georgia football game in Tuscaloosa, and the Zach Bryan concert in Auburn. For organizers and those in charge of these events, I would hold off on making any decisions until tomorrow when forecast confidence is higher. We can begin producing impact forecasts for specific places tomorrow, and NHC will likely initiate advisories very soon.

*As always, when it comes to tropical systems, if you are using old information, you are using that information. Be watching for frequent updates here over the next few days.

The weather trends drier Sunday as the circulation moves away from Alabama.

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We have Tropical Depression 9: