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re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat

Posted on 8/21/22 at 1:50 pm to
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102783 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

was going to say that’s Ft Morgan. Probably on Ponce De Leon.


Bingo
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102783 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 1:51 pm to
Latest GFS is a spicy meatball

Posted by GreenRockTiger
vortex to the whirlpool of despair
Member since Jun 2020
60651 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 1:52 pm to
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26630 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 1:54 pm to
It sends it toward Texas. And it's 384 hours, those ALWAYS verify. So get ready!
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26630 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

don’t know Otis IRL


I changed that with the time machine.
Posted by GreenRockTiger
vortex to the whirlpool of despair
Member since Jun 2020
60651 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

I changed that with the time machine.
skillet is accusing me of having STDs in the lunch thread - so oops
Posted by johnnyrocket
Ghetto once known as Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2013
9790 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:00 pm to
The blue shed that survived a few hurricanes ago looks like it will be ok.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102783 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

And it's 384 hours, those ALWAYS verify. So get ready!


The storm originates in the MDR way earlier. The wave behind the current wave on the NHC map. It’s not fantasy, and the last few runs have picked up on it forming. Each run moves it father south and west lately. It started going north of Cuba 3-4 runs ago, then crossing Cuba, now south of Cuba.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26630 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

It’s not fantasy


384 is factually fantasyland. You might as well post the winter season forecast here too.
Posted by GreenRockTiger
vortex to the whirlpool of despair
Member since Jun 2020
60651 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

You might as well post the winter season forecast here too.

It will be cold
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
33509 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

skillet is accusing me of having STDs


Posted by trussthetruzz
Member since Sep 2020
9380 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:14 pm to
same spot as ida
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102783 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

384 is factually fantasyland. You might as well post the winter season forecast here too.


The storm forms at hour 114. But keep being the biggest douche bag on here
Posted by lsumailman61
Gulf Shores
Member since Oct 2006
7968 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:17 pm to
I’m in Ft Morgan every day. Got married on Ponce in March. Know exactly where you are staying by the wheel house. Enjoy the peace and quiet. You are not far from the farm.
This post was edited on 8/21/22 at 2:18 pm
Posted by GreenRockTiger
vortex to the whirlpool of despair
Member since Jun 2020
60651 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

But keep being the biggest douche bag on here
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102783 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:19 pm to
It is nice and quiet here. Caught a bunch of blue crab earlier boiled them for lunch
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131605 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

384 is factually fantasyland. You might as well post the winter season forecast here too.


384 has a cold front with lows in mid 50s south LA!
Posted by trussthetruzz
Member since Sep 2020
9380 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

384 is factually fantasyland. You might as well post the winter season forecast here too



gfs hinting at the first cool front arriving early this year
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75207 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:28 pm to
The GFS completely killed that second wave just two runs ago when it got to the Eastern Caribbean. There's no trend involving anything other than it actually forming at the moment.

What matters is watching the trend of if either of those waves continue to form (with ensemble support) and if either of them can actually make it across the MDR.

Anything beyond that is just for fun banter.

Also, watching to see how the MDR looks after those two waves pass through. That will be a big part in setting the stage for future systems.
This post was edited on 8/21/22 at 2:31 pm
Posted by Ponchy Tiger
Ponchatoula
Member since Aug 2004
49699 posts
Posted on 8/21/22 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

gfs hinting at the first cool front arriving early this year




No way in hell this happens.
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