re: Hurricane Season - July - TS Emily

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60% is just barely over 50/50 shot of developing so they aren't saying it is a sure thing, not even close.

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well the probability of it developing was only 20% yesterday

Too far out for me to care yet. Life goes on.

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Most models don't even have it sniffing the Gulf. I'll check back in a week

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TBH that's the smart play.

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Flying to Miami on the 14th

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Hell, I'm flying to Eleuthera on the 14th.

Tonight 94L is an elongated wave axis way out around 30W with the NHC running SHIPS at 10N 32.5W but the best convection this evening is well to the SE of that:



The NHC gives this 10% chance of development in the next 48 hrs and that seems reasonable, given the elongated nature of the wave and the current setup across the Atlantic:



The wide view of the Atlantic (above) shows suppressed convection across most of the MDR and SAL out ahead and over the top of 94L. The splotchy grey clouds in the red area are indicative of SAL. Typically, SAL over the top of an AEW isn't necessarily bad but it can cause issues when it gets out in front of a wave. This current batch of SAL isn't too bad, so 94L might be able to mix it out over time. In addition to the SAL, convection overall is suppressed across the Atlantic with not much red tonight in the ITCZ. This is not surprising when looking at the upper levels:



The 18z GFS was initialized with "sinking" air (red areas) across most of the Atlantic. On the large scale, this is not overly favorable for convection and will take some time to change. There are a number of equatorial planetary waves that influence convection (change red to green) with the MJO being the primary one. There are some smaller faster moving waves, such as Kelvin Waves that also play roles in tropical convection. A KW just moved across the EPAC but appears to have faded as it moved into the Atlantic. There still might be a small influence from it but it isn't showing up real well in the current analysis. So in the short term, there might not be anything to give the wave a boost out there other than low shear.

Longer range, as the wave moves west the NHC gives it a 60% chance of development in the 3-5 day range. Shear looks to not be an issue until 94L gets closer to the islands Over the next few days the Euro shows the MJO amping up in Phase 2 and that would be conducive for development (Phase 2 might be the best phase for Atlantic activity) but the bias corrected Euro MJO keeps the signal very week, so the MJO might not be a player.





One thing all the models agree on is that there will be a shear zone caused by an upper level feature (TUTT) out ahead of 94L. Most models seem to have this shear either kill off 94L or really set it back as it moves into the islands. The GFS handles this upper level feature differently than some of the other models and eventually has it vent the system to the south. At this time, the model consensus appears to be for the TUTT to keep 94L in check. Below, the 18z GFS at D10 and the 18z GFS Para at D10:





The top image shows a well developed system with outflow on the west side of the TUTT extending nearly to S. America. While the bottom image shows no system and the TUTT in pretty much the climo position. The models still struggle with these upper level features, so a solution like the GFS could end up being right.

TL, DR:

Based on current models - 94L will be slow to develop, it might have a short window to develop before getting sheared out near the islands. Probably no real reason to pay attention until it gets past the islands and has dealt with the 1st round of shear.

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You know it's going to be an active season when you get development way out there in early July. This is what we saw in 2005 when Dennis and Emily became powerful storms in July.

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Yea, June activity doesn't really correlate with overall seasonal activity but July seems to a bit more. If July is active, then it might be up to luck to keep a major system out of the Gulf.

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what name would this one get?

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Don

It's chances are only growing because we're acknowledging it.

00z tracks for 94L

frickkkk. Nothing like having a trip to Destin next week