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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Milton - The Cleanup Begins...
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:09 am to NorthEndZone
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:09 am to NorthEndZone
NHC backed off slightly for the wind field expansion forecast:
quote:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 130SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.8W
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 130SE 130SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 140SE 130SW 170NW.
0
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:09 am to MrFreakinMiyagi
quote:
We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30 nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location.
Hedging bigly
Which Im actually happy to see them do
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:10 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south,
Would you look at that… like the radar was showing us. Best not miss if you come after the radar king.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:11 am to NorthEndZone
Nm
This post was edited on 10/9/24 at 10:26 am
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:11 am to The Boat
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:11 am to rmnldr
PDS tornado near Clewiston
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:12 am to Dtbtiger
quote:
Pressure still rising?
Rising like sirwinstons wang in a dylan mulvaney thread
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:13 am to NorthEndZone
I finally found a Live YouTube stream with 8 different cameras from Tampa to Key West. Shows the live radar too. Key West is getting battered
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 10/9/24 at 10:23 am
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:13 am to Cosmo
Is it projected to be a 3 or 4 at landfall? Seems like I've seen both lately.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:14 am to Cosmo
quote:
Rising like sirwinstons wang in a dylan mulvaney thread
Now he’s into DiddyBiebs sex tapes.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:15 am to GhostofJackson
quote:
Is it projected to be a 3 or 4 at landfall? Seems like I've seen both lately.
Won’t be a 4. Even 3 is questionable.
Nhc doesn’t like to drop categories so they will probably hold it on. But the observations upon landfall will tell the story.
This post was edited on 10/9/24 at 10:18 am
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:15 am to rds dc
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:18 am to MrFreakinMiyagi
quote:
Proximity is not the only factor here
Just looked up her address, she's 13' above sea level.
11'-15' storm surge potential in her area so the possibility of her having a foot or two is certainly there.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:18 am to Wally Sparks
Is that a sparse area?
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:19 am to TDsngumbo
the interactive cone map is a good visual, better than the static cone map
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:20 am to The Boat
quote:
Nhc doesn’t like to drop categories so they will probably hold it on. But the observations upon landfall will tell the story.
Pressure up like 20 mb in 2-3 hours. Might be 960 or more by landfall
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:23 am to cgrand
quote:
the interactive cone map is a good visual, better than the static cone map
Link?
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:23 am to Cosmo
It went from late August Gulf to late October Gulf in a couple of days. A bigger storm might have fended it off longer. But it’s small size is also a reason why it bombed out so fast.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:24 am to NorthEndZone
Total distance between center of cone at shoreline from first advisory to current one is only 12 miles.
But with the small size of Milton, that 12 miles +/- wherever eventual landfall is will be a huge difference in local impacts.
But with the small size of Milton, that 12 miles +/- wherever eventual landfall is will be a huge difference in local impacts.
This post was edited on 10/9/24 at 10:27 am
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