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Started By
Message
3
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:04 am to slackster
I'm not a huge fan of this run for a few reasons. it starts out by initializing incorrectly and then the storm outruns the ridge but still makes a north turn for some reason. if the upper level scenario in this run plays out, it looks a lot more like a gulf storm than a hard north turn.
regardless it's just one model run and still too far out to make a real forecast
regardless it's just one model run and still too far out to make a real forecast
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:05 am to baytiger
quote:
baytiger
If you don't mind, how/why does Irma head due north given this set up?
Wouldn't the flow from the high pressure to the north want to steer her westward?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:06 am to slackster
ok. on the tropical tidbits site, which is the actual european model?
ecmwf, gfs, cmc, navgem, jma, or gfs?
ecmwf, gfs, cmc, navgem, jma, or gfs?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:06 am to slackster
so this Euro has landfalls in Cuba, Florida, Bahamas & then South Carolina
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 2:07 am
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:06 am to blight
quote:
ok. on the tropical tidbits site, which is the actual european model?
ecmwf, gfs, cmc, navgem, jma, or gfs?
ECMWF is the Euro
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:07 am to blight
quote:
ecmwf
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:08 am to rt3
ok thank you
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:09 am to jaTigerfan
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:18 am to rt3
Meh
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:36 am to rt3
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:45 am to AU24
One of the pros on Storm2k says the north term is dependent on a spurious low that wont verify. If true, hello GOM.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:52 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
One of the pros on Storm2k says the north term is dependent on a spurious low that wont verify. If true, hello GOM.
No pro is going to say a low will/won't be anywhere 5-6 days out. At least no pro should do that kind of thing.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:53 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
One of the pros on Storm2k says the north term is dependent on a spurious low that wont verify. If true, hello GOM.
EPS
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 2:58 am
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:57 am to Jim Rockford
it's a 500 mb vorticity maximum that is trying to do a pseudo fujiwhara to slingshot the storm north. it doesn't seem like a strong enough feature to steer the storm like the model is suggesting.
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 3:25 am
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:58 am to AU24
Well, yeah. It will or it won't 
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:06 am to baytiger
Another one for you...if Irma catches the end of florida with enough of itself, on its current track, could it have the same effect and whip it up the western coast?
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 3:07 am
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:09 am to TigerStripes06
not sure what you're asking. hurricanes don't generally steer themselves
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:13 am to TigerStripes06
quote:
Another one for you...if Irma catches the end of florida with enough of itself, on its current track, could it have the same effect and whip it up the western coast?
The "drag" created by land doesn't steer the storm. It's not like the northern part of the storm will slow down and the souther part will speed up to make up for it, causing a northward turn on a previous westerly track.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:17 am to slackster
That's what I meant. I didn't really mean speed up on one end so much as I meant the drag effect. I remember when Andrew crossed Florida, it hit it head on and kept going...just didn't know if it had been more than of a glancing blow if it would have effected the course at all.
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