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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/14/18 at 3:53 pm to Tiger Prawn
Posted on 9/14/18 at 3:53 pm to Tiger Prawn
quote:
Have they started discussing the plans to start a roux?
Unfortunately not. But they do have a source who can "rehab" the squirrels before sending them back into the wild.
1
Posted on 9/14/18 at 3:53 pm to Tiger Prawn
Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018
It has been a very interesting flight of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft this afternoon. Dropsonde and SFMR data indicate that the
maximum winds are around 35 kt again, and the pressure has fallen
to about 1002 mb. However, the system is tilted southward with
vertical height due to northerly shear, and scatterometer and
Hurricane Hunter tail-Doppler radar data indicate the system is
elongated from northeast to southwest, albeit closed. Note that the
plane was unable to sample the southwestern quadrant well because of
strong convection and intense lightning, so the flight-level winds
showing no circulation were unrepresentative.
The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac.
Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might
diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around
the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that
Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which
is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble
members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows.
It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures
this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one
that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the
situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the
best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see
if we gain any confidence.
Isaac is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic should steer the cyclone westward over the
weekend then west-northwestward early next week as Isaac reaches a
weaker portion of the ridge. Just like yesterday, a stronger system
would likely turn more to the west-northwest earlier, moving
closer to Jamaica. Since the system is forecast to be weaker, the
forecast lies on the westward and faster side of the guidance, and
should also be considered low confidence since it depends on the
intensity. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of the
Isaac.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 15.3N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018
It has been a very interesting flight of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft this afternoon. Dropsonde and SFMR data indicate that the
maximum winds are around 35 kt again, and the pressure has fallen
to about 1002 mb. However, the system is tilted southward with
vertical height due to northerly shear, and scatterometer and
Hurricane Hunter tail-Doppler radar data indicate the system is
elongated from northeast to southwest, albeit closed. Note that the
plane was unable to sample the southwestern quadrant well because of
strong convection and intense lightning, so the flight-level winds
showing no circulation were unrepresentative.
The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac.
Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might
diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around
the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that
Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which
is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble
members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows.
It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures
this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one
that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the
situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the
best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see
if we gain any confidence.
Isaac is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic should steer the cyclone westward over the
weekend then west-northwestward early next week as Isaac reaches a
weaker portion of the ridge. Just like yesterday, a stronger system
would likely turn more to the west-northwest earlier, moving
closer to Jamaica. Since the system is forecast to be weaker, the
forecast lies on the westward and faster side of the guidance, and
should also be considered low confidence since it depends on the
intensity. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of the
Isaac.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 15.3N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
This post was edited on 9/14/18 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 9/14/18 at 3:57 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018
It has been a very interesting flight of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft this afternoon. Dropsonde and SFMR data indicate that the
maximum winds are around 35 kt again, and the pressure has fallen
to about 1002 mb. However, the system is tilted southward with
vertical height due to northerly shear, and scatterometer and
Hurricane Hunter tail-Doppler radar data indicate the system is
elongated from northeast to southwest, albeit closed. Note that the
plane was unable to sample the southwestern quadrant well because of
strong convection and intense lightning, so the flight-level winds
showing no circulation were unrepresentative.
The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac.
Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might
diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around
the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that
Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which
is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble
members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows.
It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures
this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one
that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the
situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the
best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see
if we gain any confidence.
Isaac is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic should steer the cyclone westward over the
weekend then west-northwestward early next week as Isaac reaches a
weaker portion of the ridge. Just like yesterday, a stronger system
would likely turn more to the west-northwest earlier, moving
closer to Jamaica. Since the system is forecast to be weaker, the
forecast lies on the westward and faster side of the guidance, and
should also be considered low confidence since it depends on the
intensity. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of the
Isaac.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 15.3N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
meaning...
Posted on 9/14/18 at 3:58 pm to Tiger Prawn
Posted on 9/14/18 at 3:59 pm to rt3
I will say Isaac is a tenacious son of a bitch and I hate storms like that.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:01 pm to lsuman25
quote:
I will say Isaac is a tenacious son of a bitch and I hate storms like that..
Any chance it heads north and cause trouble for LA? We have been lucky the last few years other than the great flood, and i kinda feel like we are due.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:02 pm to jlc05
quote:
There are some who feel stealing items from a grocery store shouldn’t be considered looting since it was a matter of basic survival if people are trying to take water or other food items.
Yeah, no. Not 12 hours into the storm.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:03 pm to Jumbo_Gumbo
I wouldn't get worried right now just watch it and see what happens.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:06 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Forecaster Blake
Great forecaster that openly embraces the "there is a lot we still don't know about weather" side of things.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:08 pm to tiger91
New Bern is Still Getting Pounded.
No end in sight
No end in sight
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:08 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:11 pm to BilJ
quote:
this been posted?
LINK
I mean, you can tell the wind is just enough to briskly rustle the little leafy plants in that planter behind him, yet a grown man is supposed to be having difficulty standing upright.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:12 pm to fatboydave
quote:
Have they started discussing the plans to start a roux?
Father of someone I went to HS with contracted mad cow disease from eating squirrel.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:17 pm to Jim Rockford
had a few posters from Florence, SC this week.
Any word from you baws, or have they gone off the grid?
Any word from you baws, or have they gone off the grid?
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:20 pm to LaBR4
quote:
had a few posters from Florence, SC this week.
Any word from you baws, or have they gone off the grid?
I checked my security camera a few minutes ago and wind is getting a little breezy and the rain hasn't looked heavy. My wife is staying with her parents in Lake City and it is about the same there. It has picked up a little in the last hour.
Camera just went out so the power is out.
This post was edited on 9/14/18 at 4:22 pm
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:24 pm to CobraCommander83
Figured y'all are getting into it now....keep us posted
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:24 pm to slackster
quote:
USGS 0209270825
BOGUE SOUND AT SR 1182 AT ATLANTIC BEACH, NC
USGS NWISWeb real-time data
Last data update: 2018-09-14 17:06:00
Previous
Amount
(inches)
Precipitation(total in 1 hour): 1.64
2 hours: 3.98
3 hours: 6.05
6 hours: 12.09
12 hours: 24.97
24 hours: 43.11
2 days: 50.22
7 days: --
And there it is folks, the new US mainland record for rainfall in 24 hours if it verifies.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:28 pm to rt3
Does anybody know the difference if any between what the NOAA hurricane hunters and the air force hurricane hunters do? I know the NOAA Gulfstream samples upper air current but the NOAA P3 seems to perform essentially the same mission as the USAF guys.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 4:28 pm to CobraCommander83
quote:
I checked my security camera a few minutes ago and wind is getting a little breezy and the rain hasn't looked heavy. My wife is staying with her parents in Lake City and it is about the same there. It has picked up a little in the last hour.
Camera just went out so the power is out.
Should have set up the camera to be powered by a windmill.
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