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Started By
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re: Hurricane Fiona - Moving Through the Islands and then OTS
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:40 pm to Oates Mustache
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:40 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
these models are way too bullish on development of this thing to ignore.
I fear it is going to stay that way, too.
1
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:42 pm to rt3
quote:
My question is... in a few months time when I leave CenLA for good to head back to SELA... do I keep following Nick Mik? I've come to respect his weather posts
Yes, the dude has been good for you. He's good at what he does, and those guys always need the support.
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:45 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I fear it is going to stay that way, too.
The GFS is absolutely bombing this thing out. I know it's still a long ways out, but it's only a few days out from when we should see it start.
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:46 pm to Oates Mustache
GFS shows it getting very large also. Just to show how far the winds spread out.This post was edited on 9/19/22 at 11:49 pm
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:48 pm to lsuman25
957 mb. landing near florabama
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:49 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
The GFS is absolutely bombing this thing out. I know it's still a long ways out, but it's only a few days out from when we should see it start.
It is worrisome because this one will possibly have the best environment out in front of it that we've seen this season.
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:55 pm to LegendInMyMind
For contrast, the CMC sends a sloppy arse mess into Mexico. 
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:59 pm to Oates Mustache
The Canucs said Florida and Mississippi should be getting ready to get whacked by Fiona in a couple days....
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:59 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
For contrast, the CMC sends a sloppy arse mess into Mexico
looks like it really depends on when then this decides it wants to strengthen. GFS has it <1000mb 2 days from now
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:03 am to gaetti15
And the GFS sends a 930mb, likely post tropical Fiona into Newfoundland. That's turned out to be a hell of an interesting storm to watch.
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 12:05 am
Posted on 9/20/22 at 12:04 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
And the GFS sends a 930mb, likely subtropical Fiona into Newfoundland. That's turned out to be a hell of an interesting storm to watch.
yeah that's a sick post tropical transition.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 5:40 am to gaetti15
Latest GFS has a cat 4 into Tampa. Feel we are gonna get all the major cities hit before we get a true center formed with this one.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 6:38 am to lsuman25
Followed by another potential major hurricane like 3-4 days later.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 6:53 am to rds dc
While I’m thinking of it I wanted to ask: when they issue a cone of death for landfall, which website was it that had the center path overlayed on something like google maps? Just for future reference.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:49 am to rds dc
Grand Turk getting hit hard, but they'll probably be back up and running in a few days as long as the power infrastructure is not too badly damaged.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 8:29 am to lsuman25
quote:
Latest GFS has a cat 4 into Tampa. Feel we are gonna get all the major cities hit before we get a true center formed with this one.
yep.
Looks like GFS is developing it faster off the coast of South America (in 24 hours it will be a developed low), while Euro takes a tad bit longer for it to develop (which causes it to drift further west/south).
Next factor...if it does develop faster like the GFS predicts, is the timing and depth of that trough coming across the United States...looks like that thing is pulling the low towards Florida.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 8:39 am to gaetti15
Did Rds die, or is he hungover?
Posted on 9/20/22 at 8:43 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
Did Rds die, or is he hungover?
putting on black jeans and rolling up his sleeves.
Takes awhile.
I joke
Posted on 9/20/22 at 8:46 am to Oates Mustache
Predictable split along the Euro and GFS modeling, with immediate strengthening allowing 98L to gain latitude now compared to the Euro, which keeps is riding the SA Coast. Won't take but a couple of days to sort out which one is correct. This has big implications on which solution favors the FL Peninsula or the EGOM/CGOM.
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 8:47 am
Posted on 9/20/22 at 8:53 am to lsugolfredman
quote:
Predictable split along the Euro and GFS modeling, with immediate strengthening allowing 98L to gain latitude now compared to the Euro, which keeps is riding the SA Coast. Won't take but a couple of days to sort out which one is correct. This has big implications on which solution favors the FL Peninsula or the EGOM/CGOM.
GFS might be closer to correct if you look at the satellite imagery. It's definitely one of the best looking storms in the main development region this early in it's formation.
Almost didn't want to believe the GFS because of it's propensity to spin up stuff fast and hard down that way.
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