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re: How imminent is a housing crisis in this country?
Posted on 10/26/26 at 11:22 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
Posted on 10/26/26 at 11:22 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
“Real wages”
Your argument against my comments about a chart that is in Nominal Wages is to change the conversation to "Real Wages". Yeah that makes sense. You have some real brain power there.
Did you bother to read the report that you linked? I'm guessing you didn't since it clearly states REAL WAGES have increased for the 10 percentile, 50th percentile, and 90th percentile by 6%, 8% and 41.3% respectively since 1979 (which kind of contradicts your point about REAL WAGES). This reflects .12%, .21%, and a .87% annualized growth rate OVER inflation. CPI-U from 1979 to 2019 is 3.2%. This means using the data in the report you linked the 10th percentile had annual growth rate of 3.32% the 50th percentile had an annual growth rate of 3.41%, and the 90th percentile had an annualized growth rate of 4.07%.
In short your report only proves my previous comments to be accurate that wages have grown between 3-4% annually and the chart depicting the massive gap between housing prices and wages only illustrates that this board does not comprehend the mathematics behind compounding growth rates over time.
The perceived housing crisis of today is not a subset of outliers or poor economic conditions when compared to historical conditions. It is nothing more than fulfilling mathematical predictive models to be true based on historical norms for inflation, wage growth, real estate appreciation, and interest rates.
We're 17 pages into this topic and no one has suggested a fix. In my opinion the only true and realistic fix is to change the borrowing terms on the mortgage. Any fluctuations from the model is due to temporary fluctuations in supply/demand for housing. How many of you bitching about affordability of housing has contacted your congressional delegates to get them to make the 40 year mortgage a qualified mortgage with the CFPB?
This post was edited on 10/26/26 at 11:33 pm
Posted on 10/27/26 at 6:52 am to armytiger96
quote:
We're 17 pages into this topic and no one has suggested a fix.
The fix isn’t just changing housing policy. We need to change economic policy as well
1. Transferable mortgages make existing inventory much more attractive
2. Tax cuts for the middle class. Maybe a restricted federal grant program to cover part closing costs
3. Finding Somehow someway to stop job loss and closing the wage/inflation gap. 2020’s middle class doesn’t have the same purchasing power as previous decades
4. Grant program for clearing blighted properties and rebuilding neighborhoods.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 7:11 am to TheGhostOfBigLee
quote:
Let’s hear it scholars of the OT. Mortgage rates are rapidly approaching 8% and home sales are at multi decade lows. What do y’all say?
As someone who sold a house 7 weeks ago, and this included a pool (which can further reduce potential buyers) at only a $9000 reduction from asking price, all within 70 days from the time it was listed to getting 2 purchase agreements (one initially fell through), I’d say that there are still quite a few houses that I was up against still for sale, but I attribute that more to the owners not necessarily doing the work to make them sale ready.
I had plenty of activity for the 7 or 8 weeks it was listed. I also think it is very dependent on the area you are in and a certain price point. I was in the $500 to $600 selling price range.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 7:14 am to Defenseiskey
quote:
The only reason why it's making headlines right now is because there's a huge sell-off happening right now and older people are having trouble selling their houses for their preferred price.
Yup - older folks are going to have to realize 2021/2022 prices are gone. I bought a house this year for 76% of the original list price from empty nesters after they tried to sell it for 2+ years.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 7:32 am to armytiger96
quote:
Did you bother to read the report that you linked? I'm guessing you didn't since it clearly states REAL WAGES have increased for the 10 percentile, 50th percentile, and 90th percentile by 6%, 8% and 41.3% respectively since 1979
Yes, and while I actually do think you read some of it, I think you are too fricking stupid to understand it.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 7:58 am to Will Cover
quote:
I also think it is very dependent on the area you are in and a certain price point. I was in the $500 to $600 selling price range
It’s almost like you had a realistic expectation based on your location and asking price, unlike all these boomers treating their homes as retirement plans.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 8:08 am to jwalk38
Transferrable mortgages how would they work
Sale Price - 500K
Remaining Balance on the note - 150k @3.5%
That leaves a gap of $350k in equity
Buyer takes over the note @ 3.5%.
Where is the 350k coming from? Buyer would still need a loan.
Sale Price - 500K
Remaining Balance on the note - 150k @3.5%
That leaves a gap of $350k in equity
Buyer takes over the note @ 3.5%.
Where is the 350k coming from? Buyer would still need a loan.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 8:17 am to bamaphan13
quote:
Transferrable mortgages how would they work
Sale Price - 500K
Remaining Balance on the note - 150k @3.5%
That leaves a gap of $350k in equity
Buyer takes over the note @ 3.5%.
Where is the 350k coming from? Buyer would still need a loan.
That's basically exactly how VA loan assumptions work. You still make out better having a portion of your mortgage having a 2.5% rate, but I'm not sure how it works having two payments every month. Is it all a wash, assuming they are both on the same schedule, or does it affect affordability?
Posted on 10/27/26 at 8:20 am to cubsfan5150
It automatically makes houses w/ little to no equity more attractive.
Mortgage industry would love it...the amount of cash out refis would sky rocket.
Mortgage industry would love it...the amount of cash out refis would sky rocket.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 8:35 am to lepdagod
I agree with this. I’m in residential construction also and I am seeing the interest rates slowing us down as the payments are creeping upward. To counter this, we are adding options as a freebie to entice them to come in. Things such as fence, blinds, refrigerator, etc. Not seeing much in the way of people asking for a rate buy down yet. Horton and Lennar are still selling strong as are we, but I see the shift. Slowly, but surely. We are getting more into the multi family stuff as the price points are below 300,000. I believe we’re just going into a correction as the stock market is holding steady. Nothing like 2008 where everyone was leveraged to the hilt. (Mortgage and CC ) At least as far as mortgages go, everyone is sitting on those cheap ones and probably few will budge out. JMO.
Posted on 10/27/26 at 9:46 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Yes, and while I actually do think you read some of it, I think you are too fricking stupid to understand it.
It’s cute to see you calling someone stupid.
Care to dispute his post?
Posted on 10/27/26 at 9:59 am to notiger1997
quote:
It’s cute to see you calling someone stupid. Care to dispute his post?
People are being paid less in cash as part of their total real wages. Employer costs of healthcare are the main driver of wages staying even just stagnant, and premiums are up for employees and coverage is worse.
So the split of total compensation is more heavily skewed to benefits (that are worse) and less to cash. Ie people make less real money.
It’s all laid out in the link I posted if you don’t want to board the idiot train and actually read it
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