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re: How does one learn about gambling on sports?
Posted on 5/1/21 at 9:34 am to Adam4848
Posted on 5/1/21 at 9:34 am to Adam4848
quote:
Whatever team you think will win pick the opposite
Except that then you will start pretending to like one team because you REALLY want to bet on the other team.
The most successful sports gamblers are those that have stopped. Mathematically it is remarkably difficult to be successful at gambling because of the vig.Then again, Billy Walters and Bill Bentwr have made remarkable sums of money.
If I were starting out I would follow So Money on Twitter. Knowing the end result if I were just about to start out I wouldn’t.
2
Posted on 5/1/21 at 10:16 am to go ta hell ole miss
As with most things it's depends on what you put into it.
Like a number of posts in this thread, the first thing everyone focuses on the handicapping of teams. It may be counterintuitive, but you certainly don't want to start there. A few quick things you can do out the gate to improve your odds.
Dont pay for picks, 99.999% are scams.
Avoid parlays, teasers and most of the gimmick bets, stick to single bets.
Have access to multiple books, and line shop, sports betting is way more about getting the right prices than predicting what will happen in the game.
Concentrate on niche markets, no one will start out with the ability to beat NFL main line closing lines. Anyone can beat current NFL draft markets with some effort and discipline. Other markets that would fall into this category, player props, halves and quarter markets, smaller full game markets like WNBA.
If you want to dive deeper, there's a book called the logic of sports betting that will give you a good intermediate intro.
If you want to learn to handicap, spend a few years learning python, scraping data, building models etc.
Like a number of posts in this thread, the first thing everyone focuses on the handicapping of teams. It may be counterintuitive, but you certainly don't want to start there. A few quick things you can do out the gate to improve your odds.
Dont pay for picks, 99.999% are scams.
Avoid parlays, teasers and most of the gimmick bets, stick to single bets.
Have access to multiple books, and line shop, sports betting is way more about getting the right prices than predicting what will happen in the game.
Concentrate on niche markets, no one will start out with the ability to beat NFL main line closing lines. Anyone can beat current NFL draft markets with some effort and discipline. Other markets that would fall into this category, player props, halves and quarter markets, smaller full game markets like WNBA.
If you want to dive deeper, there's a book called the logic of sports betting that will give you a good intermediate intro.
If you want to learn to handicap, spend a few years learning python, scraping data, building models etc.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 10:26 am to ThatsABigGeauxTigers
Pro Tip - DON"T
House always wins in the long run. Just look at those multi-million dollar casinos.
House always wins in the long run. Just look at those multi-million dollar casinos.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 10:31 am to Y.A. Tittle
Well I did well last year. First I joined Betnow then I bougt 5k in bit coin and used 2k on betting. Bit coin tripled
Posted on 5/1/21 at 11:28 am to Lithium
I bet baseball the most. Best odds. If a team has won the first two in the series, take the lower in Game 3. Sweeps aren't super common.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 11:47 am to HeadSlash
quote:it's not from sports betting, it's from slot machines and tables.
House always wins in the long run. Just look at those multi-million dollar casinos.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 11:58 am to saintsfan1977
quote:
it's not from sports betting, it's from slot machines and tables.
Correct, sports betting was always treated as a loss leader to get customers in the door. Those times might be changing with mass legalization. However, beating sports or being a small loser isn't as impossible as a lot of people think.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 1:10 pm to ThatsABigGeauxTigers
Really as simple as this: Make sure you have watched the team you are betting for a lot. Same for the opponent. Keep up with injuries going into the contest. Check the weather forecast. Now, COVID is a factor. Don't bet with your heart, don't be a homer, bet on facts. If you have the eye for sports, you'll do well. If you are betting on like say SEC football games, watch them all the entire season. Do research. Check the things I said above, then pick the games you feel you have a lock on with or against the spread. Don't just bet for the hell of it. Do your homework.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 1:45 pm to LarryDavid
You can win in early season college football if you follow the teams closely and understand the roster changes because the statistical models used to set the lines don’t have accurate data yet. Late season is tough. Golf odds bets can also be profitable if you know player trends
Posted on 5/1/21 at 2:04 pm to ThatsABigGeauxTigers
Bet small until you get the gist of everything, statistics and previous games mean a lot but imo the eye test is really what it boils down to when it comes to college football. I normally wait and bet on games with teams I'm familiar with and go just about "all in" (like bama being only a 7pt favorite in the 1st quarter this past fall)
Posted on 5/1/21 at 2:32 pm to LarryDavid
quote:
Make sure you have watched the team you are betting for a lot. Same for the opponent.
You don't need to do this. Check the stats and make an educated guess. I don't watch much nfl anymore but there's certain games that will be easy to pick based on certain situations. Just research.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:07 pm to ThatsABigGeauxTigers
Become friends with Roger Goodell and convince him to tell you which teams they rigged to win
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:13 pm to ThatsABigGeauxTigers
If you don't know what you are doing, don't.
I have many years of experience as a professional data scientist and have spent hundreds of hours writing complex sports betting machine learning models to bet with and at best my profit margins and ROI are extremely small. Those are my good days/weeks/months/seasons.
My 2020 MLB ROI was 0.1%. It beats losing, but I sunk hundreds of hours into my MLB models. This year its off to a poor start.
The average person doesn't stand a chance. Too many people think because they watch sports a lot, they somehow can beat the books. And sports betting books love to market to these idiots.
I have many years of experience as a professional data scientist and have spent hundreds of hours writing complex sports betting machine learning models to bet with and at best my profit margins and ROI are extremely small. Those are my good days/weeks/months/seasons.
My 2020 MLB ROI was 0.1%. It beats losing, but I sunk hundreds of hours into my MLB models. This year its off to a poor start.
The average person doesn't stand a chance. Too many people think because they watch sports a lot, they somehow can beat the books. And sports betting books love to market to these idiots.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:15 pm to Nolaville1
quote:
RJ Bell podcast called RJ Bells Dream Preview.
That guy and his cohorts are a bunch of dumbass touts who are all long term losers. They flip coins to pick a side, spend about 30 seconds coming up with a paragraph or two to make it sound like they did their research on the game, and then spend the other 99% of their efforts marketing themselves as cant lose geniuses.
Anyone who follows this idiot's advice or the advice of anyone who sells picks deserves to lose all of their bankroll.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:16 pm to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Billy Walters
Made his fortune by sending runners to books and hammering lines so he could capitalize on instant line movement and generate artificial middle opportunities. He was not a genius at actually picking winners, he just gamed the system.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:17 pm to UKWildcats
quote:
I bet baseball the most. Best odds. If a team has won the first two in the series, take the lower in Game 3. Sweeps aren't super common.
Can I be your bookie?
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:19 pm to ThatsABigGeauxTigers
Nice try police baw
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:21 pm to goldennugget
You tell em Gnugg, have you or have you thought about writing a book?
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:25 pm to Strannix
Already started to write a book. It's been a slow burn writing it but I don't want to rush it. I've written about 36 pages and 6 chapter so far.
I try to tell everyone I know... if you are going to bet on sports... keep it extremely recreational. You will lose in the long run unless you are like me and have a very strong background in math/statistics/programming and even then its still extremely challenging just to break even. The oddsmakers and markets are too efficient. I don't even bother with sports like NBA and NFL.
I try to tell everyone I know... if you are going to bet on sports... keep it extremely recreational. You will lose in the long run unless you are like me and have a very strong background in math/statistics/programming and even then its still extremely challenging just to break even. The oddsmakers and markets are too efficient. I don't even bother with sports like NBA and NFL.
Posted on 5/1/21 at 3:35 pm to LarryDavid
quote:
Keep up with injuries going into the contest.
This is the truth. I didn't give the injury report for the SB it's due when the Chiefs had a couple of OL out. Mahomey got killed and I lost $.
This post was edited on 5/1/21 at 9:29 pm
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