re: How 'Dark' Tankers In Strait Of Hormuz Are Keeping Oil Prices In Check

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Wouldn't those transponders eventually be turned back on?

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Faux and cloned transponders could be placed on all kinds of drones and vessels unrelated to shipping.

Good luck associating particular transponders to particular ports, bills of lading, or vessels.

So much winning that they’re now begging other world leaders to close the loopholes that have kept Iran afloat and on life support for decades. Think about that: a country with an extraordinarily low standard of living, largely neutered by sanctions and locked out of the global economy for nearly half a century, has the most powerful country in the modern world begging everyone else to stop doing business with it to put an end to the war.

If that isn’t a “scoreboard” moment for the bald eagles, I don’t know what is.

https://apple.news/AnsrW7fQQTROjXzooGVDjxw

Hell if that was the case, we could’ve left after we got Bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011.

And unfortunately, iran is doing the same w their oil, keeping them afloat.

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Ever heard of the Persian Empire?

Never say never

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Ever heard of Barack Obama?

The dem party will rush in to build them back up if they are ever elected again.

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The dem party will rush in to build them back up if they are ever elected again.

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If you are taking the bait, you are the one behind the 8 ball

It is NOT D vs R as your seem to believe, BOTH pick our pockets, then blame the other side. This is the UNITED states of America and either side that seeks to divide "The People" is not worthy of being here.

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1. It's summer, typical US summer fuel price rise is anywhere from 10% to 25%, so it is disingenuous to claim that all of the fuel price increase is due to the war.

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They rarely go up that much in the summer, more like 10% to 15%. And they increased immediately, not over summer. Within 8 weeks, prices had risen from $3 to 4.48. By April 2, they officially crossed $4 after hovering just under $4 for a few weeks. Thats 33% by april. April =\= summer.

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2. The market prices for crude disagree with the contention that the supply has been constricted by 10-15%.

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It is theorized that the sharp pricing increase in spring caused demand destruction on some level, which helped stabilize prices.Strategic reserves have been used as a stop gap to cover a big chunk of that supply side shortfall. Here is the math for you with a source.
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026
At the peak of the Hormuz disruptions, direct supply losses from Persian Gulf producers (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, and Iran) exceeded 14 million b/d of shut-in production. The IEA noted that second-quarter global oil supply dropped by 12.8 to 13.6 million b/d compared to pre-conflict baselines, representing a direct 13% to 15% contraction in global oil availability.

In response to the supply shock, the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) unanimously agreed to the largest coordinated stock release in history: 400 million barrels of emergency oil made available to global markets.

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Russian crude exports are running well behind 2022 and are presently falling like a rock, They are just below 2023-24 numbers, and have been all year. Worse still for them, Ukraine has seriously impaired their ability to export higher margin refined product, so their net margins are down significantly.

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Rather than benefiting from high export volumes, Russia gained through narrowed price discounts and higher per-barrel realizations. Prior to the Iran conflict, Western sanctions and price caps forced Russian exporters to sell Urals crude at a steep discount—often $20 to $30 below Brent benchmark rates. When Persian Gulf supplies were severed, desperate global buyers pushed the Urals discount down to under $10, earning Russia roughly $1.6 billion per month for every $10 decrease in discount depth. The Russian Finance Ministry projected over 1 trillion rubles ($13.6 billion) in pure windfall revenue directly attributed to the Hormuz price shock.

To stabilize global fuel supplies during the spring peak, the U.S. Treasury and Western partners issued targeted temporary waivers on stranded Russian seaborne oil cargoes. This allowed Russia to clear inventories faster and capture peak market prices ($90–$110+/barrel).

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The $200B number accounts for all the costs of running the carrier battle groups, pay for sailors and troops, food, water, munitions expended, etc. The catch is that NONE of that goes away except the munitions expenditures if we do nothing. Sailors and soldiers still get paid and fed, carrier battle groups still put to sea etc, etc. Real incremental cost is closer to that of Somali learing centers than it is to $200B. Go and calculate it for yourself.

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Some truth to this, from an accounting perspective. But I’m betting the number the Somalis stole is closer to zero than $35-45bn, and that’s what we’ve blown on munitions and other operational expenses so far. Oh, and since we are accounting for costs, Iran turned around and caused $50Bn or so in retaliatory damage to our GCC trade partners who are heavily invested in the perpetuation of the American economy. Then took huge chunks of their supply out of the system, as evidenced above

Then you have to factor in the opportunity cost of operating such a large scale effort in such a far flung theater.

Shifting carrier groups, destroyers, and 5th-generation air assets (like F-22s and F-35s) away from the Western Pacific reduces deterrent coverage against Chinese operational movements in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

Diverting land-based air squadrons (e.g., F-15Es relocated from RAF Lakenheath) and European-stationed air defense batteries weakens theater defense capability against Russian airspace or missile threats along NATO’s eastern edge.