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re: How are farmers doing right now?
Posted on 10/9/25 at 4:22 pm to mmmmmbeeer
Posted on 10/9/25 at 4:22 pm to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
we lost our biggest soy bean customer via a self-inflicted tariff/trade war
Just clear up your comment with context, DJT’s retaliatory tariffs are a direct result to China’s theft of American intellectual property that causes an estimated annual loss between $225 - $600 billion. It’s about damn time an American administration starts, you know, standing up and protecting American interests.
1
Posted on 10/9/25 at 4:31 pm to BraveCajun
quote:
China's Soymeal Crisis: Overcapacity and Policy Constraints
China's role as the world's largest soybean importer has shifted dramatically in 2025. Despite a record 43.86 million metric ton soybean stockpile—36% of global reserves—China's soymeal demand has collapsed. Domestic crushing plants are operating at a loss, with spot prices in northern China plummeting to 2,925 yuan ($408) per metric ton, a 6.5% year-on-year decline. Over 20 million metric tons of soymeal inventory now sits idle, forcing plant closures and storage constraints.
This crisis is compounded by China's strategic policies to stabilize meat prices and curb overconsumption. Reduced breeding sow numbers, restrictions on new crushing capacity, and limits on soymeal use in animal feed are set to suppress demand. Even if U.S. soybean prices fall below Brazilian imports, China's stockpiling strategy and domestic policies will likely delay new purchases.
https://www.ainvest.com/news/assessing-bearish-outlook-soybean-futures-abundant-supply-weak-china-demand-trade-uncertainty-2507/
Posted on 10/9/25 at 4:48 pm to loogaroo
A rare OT interesting discussion. Nice
Posted on 10/9/25 at 5:00 pm to Gauxt
quote:
A rare OT interesting discussion. Nice
Exactly what I was thinking! So much mis-information out there, though.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 6:51 pm to WeeWee
That is precisely what they voted for. Except they did not count on the ChiComs inking long term deals with Brazil and Argentina to buy soybeans. Support tariffs don't be surprised when your trading partner finds work arounds.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 6:56 pm to charminultra
Probably breaking even. That's all they ever do and you get tired of breaking even. I have good friends that are farmers or former farmers. He was the one that said you get tired of just breaking even.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 7:14 pm to charminultra
So if the farmers are doing so bad, can we leave the clocks alone once we go back to real time?
Posted on 10/9/25 at 7:27 pm to charminultra
quote:
Would be interested to hear from any farmers here that might have insight into what's going on, how they're pivoting/navigating, their thoughts for the future, etc.
I’m speaking solely as a farmer in the delta.
How we’re doing is totally dependent upon the financial health of each individual operation.
Farms that have been responsible in the good years, don’t have significant debt on equipment, land, etc., prudent about purchasing inputs, and aren’t paying outrageous land rents are paying out, weathering the storm and in some cases, growing their operation.
Farmers that are heavily leveraged have got to be pissing themselves.
I will say, the land jockeying has not been as active this fall. Last fall, generational moves were being made almost daily.
Who knows what Daddy Trump is going to do, but it’s bad enough that payments to a lot of farms will simply be passed on to banks, chemical companies, and John Deere to try to get back in their good graces.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 7:51 pm to chinhoyang
quote:
When cattle prices are low, no one calls the vet. At current prices, they do all the time.
Same for cattle rustling. Local Facebook page said 9 steers were stolen two nights ago.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 7:55 pm to KiwiHead
quote:
That is precisely what they voted for. Except they did not count on the ChiComs inking long term deals with Brazil and Argentina to buy soybeans. Support tariffs don't be surprised when your trading partner finds work arounds.
And like all business, once those new sources of grain are established and relationships built it’s very difficult to bring them back. This is different than the soybean bailouts in Trump’s first term. This could destroy US soybean farmers for decades. There isn’t enough money to keep them afloat forever
Posted on 10/9/25 at 8:04 pm to redneck hippie
If the ChiComs continue the trend do we try to bailout farmers next year....what if it continues another year beyond that?
Posted on 10/9/25 at 8:27 pm to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
mmmmmbeeer
This guy has a well broken in cuck chair in his bedroom
Posted on 10/9/25 at 8:28 pm to charminultra
They are struggling big time
Posted on 10/9/25 at 8:34 pm to AndyCBR
Exactly! Hard to imagine when less than one percent of the population controls the food supply in the country how they are not extremely wealthy. Basically 99% of the population dependent on them for food. Makes you wonder who is really being subsidized is it the farmer or the American Consumer? on average American spend less than 10% on food! Cheapest in the world.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 8:43 pm to charminultra
The farm economy needs a complete overhaul. The model is broken and the foreign market is not coming back. Brazil is only going to grow it production as is Argentina.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 9:21 pm to charminultra
Most I know aren’t doing well. Impossible to make profit and they are praying for federal relief money to make them whole
Large generational family farms who own the land and equipment paid off can weather a few bad years because they have assets and can sell them or borrow against them.
Smaller farms or large farms that are over leveraged or living beyond their means are in dire straits because these live farm loan to farm loan and without relief money many will fold or downsize because they can’t pay back their loan.
Small Farming operations that lease the land are largely done for. Banks already this past year refused to lend to farms paying over 200/acre rent.
Next year will be the 3rd shitty year with no end in sight, most farms can weather it out for a couple tough years but unless Trump gets a deal with China next year you’ll start to see the real damage barring a major bailout. Truth is even if China starts buying, there’s just too much supply out there and prices won’t be going way up until supply is reduced. South American production keeps increasing and they can make money at much lower prices. American farmers will either 1. Go out of business 2. Find alternative crops that are profitable 3. Get bailed out repeatedly by Uncle Sam
Large generational family farms who own the land and equipment paid off can weather a few bad years because they have assets and can sell them or borrow against them.
Smaller farms or large farms that are over leveraged or living beyond their means are in dire straits because these live farm loan to farm loan and without relief money many will fold or downsize because they can’t pay back their loan.
Small Farming operations that lease the land are largely done for. Banks already this past year refused to lend to farms paying over 200/acre rent.
Next year will be the 3rd shitty year with no end in sight, most farms can weather it out for a couple tough years but unless Trump gets a deal with China next year you’ll start to see the real damage barring a major bailout. Truth is even if China starts buying, there’s just too much supply out there and prices won’t be going way up until supply is reduced. South American production keeps increasing and they can make money at much lower prices. American farmers will either 1. Go out of business 2. Find alternative crops that are profitable 3. Get bailed out repeatedly by Uncle Sam
Posted on 10/9/25 at 9:26 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
If their cost are up they should sell higher to offset the costs.
Commodities don’t work this way. The best you can do is guess the futures market and book to sell your crop at a price you think is the best you can get.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 9:26 pm to deltaland
quote:The real economy feels like it has been trash since 2023 Q2 ish.
Next year will be the 3rd shitty year with no end in sight
Posted on 10/9/25 at 9:27 pm to deltaland
I am not blaming the farmers on this one, I had buddies that were paid more not to plant than they could make planting crops. The feds have been completely heavily in this for many decades. Suddenly to declare no subsidies is like a river deciding not to flow anyone.
Posted on 10/9/25 at 9:27 pm to deltaland
quote:
American farmers will either 1. Go out of business 2. Find alternative crops that are profitable 3. Get bailed out repeatedly by Uncle Sam
There is a fourth, and most likely, possiblity, brother Delta: those farms will continue to be bought out by large industrial/conglomerate farms, consolidating more and more of our country's food supply into the hands of mega corporations.
ETA: Oh, and not just the actual crop production, but more and more of our food processing, as well.
This post was edited on 10/9/25 at 9:29 pm
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