re: Home Sales in BR Decline; LP and AP Increase

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the graphic shows fewer people in EBR are selling their houses compared to last year. Meaning more people in EBR are staying put, not leaving

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Also... the difference from year to year of new listings in EBR is 4 homes... so yeah, 4 fewer people out of almost 600. Definitely a trend of people staying put.

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Also... the difference from year to year of new listings in EBR is 4 homes... so yeah, 4 fewer people out of almost 600.

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It's YOUR graphic. You concluded incorrectly based on the information in it. The same 4 homes caused you to make an incorrect analysis.

You're so biased in arriving at your "conclusion" that you ignore what's been in the news about Ascension Parish.

They are predicting a huge influx of workers from out of state to support the explosion of petrochemical plant construction and operations there over the next several years. That inflow has already started. And yet AP's voters voted down a property tax increase last month to improve their infrastructure.

You probably should just stick to analyzing baseball stats on the Rant. You're much better at that....

BR does not have much to entice young professionals and families to live there. I would like OP to provide a wider range of data points to confirm this.

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And it's not MY graphic... it's the advocates.

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You posted the graphic and made a conclusion from it. So that makes it YOUR graphic.

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I'm just reading it incorrectly

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That's the first statement you've made in this thread that I can agree with.

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ETA: I wouldn't mind having a real discussion here about what can be concluded...

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The only thing those stats tell me is that the number of homes on the market for sale (using the "inventory," "days on market" and "months supply" figures) is down significantly from the same month in 2013 in all three parishes but especially in AP and LP.

That probably is causing the significant year-over-year increase in median sales price since the supply of homes on the market for buyers is down significantly. The % increase in sales price is more than triple the average rate of inflation over the past year.

So, it's a seller's market right now in those three parishes.

It tells us NOTHING about where the buyers are coming from or where the sellers are going.

Edited to change "average sales price" to "median sales price."

LSURUssian spews his misinformation again. People with young children are leaving EBR in huge numbers.

You can look at building permits for single family homes in surrounding parishes compared to EBRP. That will tell you the story.

You have a few places in EBRP where single family homes are being built in EBRP. Central, Zachary, and the Southern portion of the parish still have SF homes coming up just not in great numbers. Look at the sf home permits inside BR the numbers are not there.

Most of the building permits in EBRP is outside the city of BR and its commercial or multi family construction. Don't worry BR will try to annex the commercial property while not annexing multi family properties. I wonder why?

Most of the homes I built in Livingston parish this year sold within 2 days or less of me listing them. Every single purchase was from people who had children that were reaching school age or young couples expecting to have kids that came from apartments in BR.

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Central, Zachary, and the Southern portion of the parish still have SF homes coming up just not in great numbers.

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I remember when Zachary was growing at 25%. Prices have skyrocketed and building has come way down. But I'm not sure about people coming and going from those places compared to the City of BR.

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LSURUssian spews his misinformation again. People with young children are leaving EBR in huge numbers.

You can look at building permits for single family homes in surrounding parishes compared to EBRP. That will tell you the story.

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Yes, it does and those figures prove your ignorance once again.

Permits for single family homes in EBR in the first half of 2014 equaled 452, an increase of 29.5% over the same period in 2013. LINK

In ALL of 2013 single family permits for Ascension Parish was 233. (I can't find the 2014 numbers for AP.) LINK

In Livingston Parish in the entire year of 2013 the number of single family permits was 248. LINK

So the number of single family home permits in EBR (for 6 months in 2014) was 194% of the total YEARLY number in AP in 2013 and 182% of the total YEARLY number of permits in LP in 2013 based on the latest information available online.

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Look at the sf home permits inside BR the numbers are not there.

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Obviously, the market is stronger there than BR... or is that wrong as well?

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That's not obvious from the graphic you posted. The median sales price % increase was higher in EBR than Livingston but slightly lower than AP. Increase in sales price year over year is a frequently used metric to determine if a real estate market is "hot" or slowing. All three parishes are "hot-ish" right now. If I wanted to sell my home in any of those parishes, now might be a good time.

See my reply to jrocket. New single family home construction is EBR is running about 3-4 times the new single family home construction than either AP or LP on an annualized basis, based on the only permit figures I could find by Googling.

ETA: Plus the permit figures I linked to also disprove your earlier assumption that AP and LP have more new home construction compared to EBR.

I wouldn't read too much in the numbers about how people are leaving one parish for another.

For one, "new listings" are any home being put on the market -- could be a 50 year old house, could be put up by people moving for work, or downsizing, or upsizing.

The second is that East Baton Rouge Parish still accounts for most of the sales activity in the metro area. There were more houses sold in EBR in October than there were in Livingston and Ascension combined.

About all these numbers show is that there's a good bit of activity in the local housing market. People are buying and selling, prices are continuing to go up and the homes on the market are moving.