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Message
re: Home prices rose in March
Posted on 5/31/23 at 11:47 am to UAinSOUTHAL
Posted on 5/31/23 at 11:47 am to UAinSOUTHAL
quote:
Try selling it for that 40K and see if you get it.
They are selling for that right now. New builds have a 2 year wait list right now. At the new price.
Homes are being sold and people are paying the 10% downpayment
0
Posted on 5/31/23 at 12:17 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
We have 40K worth of equity in our house and we have not even moved in yet
Price increase doesn’t equal equity increase unless you put zero down.
You meant “increased in value “ , not equity. Equity considers debt on the property where “value” does not.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 12:24 pm to Dawgfanman
Housing starts vs. housing completions is at a huge disparity in favor of completions. The pricing statistic in OP's linked article doesn't tell the entire story.
Posted on 5/31/23 at 12:25 pm to Chingon Ag
quote:
Housing starts vs. housing completions is at a huge disparity in favor of completions. The pricing statistic in OP's linked article doesn't tell the entire story.
So there won’t be more inventory? What’s the entire story?
Posted on 6/1/23 at 6:46 am to MikeBRLA
quote:
You meant “increased in value “ , not equity. Equity considers debt on the property where “value” does not
Agree. I used the wrong term..
Either way, our prices are going up. Not down here.
Posted on 6/1/23 at 7:06 am to Dawgfanman
The 1100 square foot 3 bedroom one bath semi-dump I rented in Boulder with zero updates since the 1960s is clocking in at $825k. Run, don’t walk !
Posted on 6/1/23 at 7:14 am to tigeraddict
quote:
no one with a sub 3.5% interest rate wants to sell their house to get a plus 7% rate......
That plus most who bought at those low rates are now sitting on a lot of equity and don't want to blow all that to pay for an inflated upgrade. I'm at 2.875% and I don't think I'll buy another home til I retire (though that was likely always the plan, it definitely is now).
Posted on 6/1/23 at 7:18 am to LanierSpots
quote:
There are still 750 houses to be completed in our huge subdivision.
Holy moly......WHY?
quote:
We have 40K worth of equity in our house and we have not even moved in yet
Nvm. I see where you clarified above. I'd still never have anything to do with a subdivision that big, though.
This post was edited on 6/1/23 at 7:22 am
Posted on 6/1/23 at 7:30 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
Home prices rose in March
From the article
quote:
U.S. single-family home prices increased solidly on a monthly basis in March
But when you look at the overall data it shows a different story:
LINK
Reduce the time to 1 year or five years and you notice median home prices fell from $480,000 to under $440,000 between the end of the fourth quarter and the second quarter.
That's concerning because seasonally prices generally rise in the spring through summer peak selling season.
Posted on 6/1/23 at 7:34 am to LanierSpots
quote:
There are still 750 houses to be completed in our huge subdivision.
Enjoy suicide.
First, you are in a 750+ home neighborhood.
Second - it’s only AFTER a price increase that you only have 40k in equity. Another adjustment will come and you will be woefully upside down on a house with an 8% mortgage and 29 more years to pay on it.
Posted on 6/1/23 at 7:40 am to molsusports
quote:
Reduce the time to 1 year or five years and you notice median home prices fell from $480,000 to under $440,000 between the end of the fourth quarter and the second quarter.
Yeah, but March kinda looks like a reversal of the trend since summer/fall of last year.
From another article:
quote:
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price index rose 0.4% in March compared with the previous month, according to data released on Tuesday. That was the second straight month of gains after seven consecutive months of price declines
Prices stabilizing in early spring, generally rise into summer. We will see if the trend has continued as the data comes out.
Posted on 6/1/23 at 7:56 am to Dawgfanman
Devils advocate. Aren't people hoping for a reversal in the slide and pointing to a normal seasonal bump to justify that?
The Case- Shiller index referenced is historically elevated.
LINK
That's not a bullish sign, it is generally interpreted as a negative future indicator.
The ratio of median income to median home price is around 7.6. That's historically high. It was 6.8 at the peak of the last bubble
The Case- Shiller index referenced is historically elevated.
LINK
That's not a bullish sign, it is generally interpreted as a negative future indicator.
The ratio of median income to median home price is around 7.6. That's historically high. It was 6.8 at the peak of the last bubble
Posted on 6/1/23 at 8:05 am to molsusports
quote:
Devils advocate. Aren't people hoping for a reversal in the slide and pointing to a normal seasonal bump to justify that?
Yeah seems possible.
quote:
The ratio of median income to median home price is around 7.6. That's historically high. It was 6.8 at the peak of the last bubble
We had a glut of homes (nearly 3 times the number today) for sale during the peak of the last bubble. We appear to have a supply problem. It doesn’t look to be improving. Without some massive job losses or other disruption, it just seems a “crash” is unlikely in the near to mid term.
Posted on 6/1/23 at 8:37 am to Dawgfanman
people aren't selling because they're locked in at 3%. If they're not selling, that means less inventory, which translates to higher prices. A very interesting phenomenon.
Posted on 6/1/23 at 9:17 am to The Goat
quote:
people aren't selling because they're locked in at 3%. If they're not selling, that means less inventory, which translates to higher prices. A very interesting phenomenon.
This right here will limit supply for a while and prices will either rise or stagnate because of it.
Posted on 6/1/23 at 10:15 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
We appear to have a supply problem.
Partially agree. Partially disagree
The number of people who locked in rates under 5% is really high. A homeowner is going to have the incentive to stay where they are and not upgrade. That naturally reduces both supply and demand.
Investment properties are a different thing. There are a lot of those. Those people are the type who will make the rational economic decision to sell their Air BnB or rental property when it becomes a money losing enterprise.
An underappreciated number of the defaults last time were investment properties. That is a danger again this time especially if the leading economic indicators are correct.
Posted on 6/1/23 at 10:27 am to Swagga
A correction doesn’t mean a crash. I’m a builder. Most of what I do is presale custom, about 20% speculative. My sales are down, but customers are backlogging waiting for either cost or interest to move. These are people which own their property, are going to build. Pent up demand.
Our specs are moving steadily. We don’t just build Willy nilly and try to set the market. We do market research and see if we can build more house for the same, or the same for less. If not, we move along.
We are building about 25% less units, but making about 30% more on the bottom line.
2022 we did $11.7 million, 2023 we will do about $9 million.
We will make more in 2023 than 2022.
Chasing prices up causes more slippage between contract and completion.
I welcome the correction.
Our specs are moving steadily. We don’t just build Willy nilly and try to set the market. We do market research and see if we can build more house for the same, or the same for less. If not, we move along.
We are building about 25% less units, but making about 30% more on the bottom line.
2022 we did $11.7 million, 2023 we will do about $9 million.
We will make more in 2023 than 2022.
Chasing prices up causes more slippage between contract and completion.
I welcome the correction.
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