re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

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I’m confused. I would have thought that the because of the cool front that came through the other day. That would drive it more east as it gets closer us? At least that’s what the baw on tropical tidbits said on his video earlier.

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I haven't watched Levi's video, but the trough/front that has already passed through isn't too big a player. The western edge is being influenced by an eventual shortwave trough in SE TX. What remains to be seen is what impact the shift in timing has with the center forming a little farther north than expected. That is what has led to the Western shifts because the shortwave won't be as strong or as far SE if timing is moved up.

Dont think this makes passed Vermillion bay coming in. However, SELA (Dr Reed picked this up earlier) will be under a decent/more than average nocturnal tornado threat.

Hurricanes hate sheer but embedded Supercells dont...

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However, SELA (Dr Reed picked this up earlier) will be under a decent/more than average nocturnal tornado threat.

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SPC put a Day 3 Slight Risk on the board a bit ago. No specific probabilities yet, though.

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we should know a lot more in the next 48 hrs.

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possibly down to 45 hours till landfall.

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With GOES-16 data back, a few observations can be made from loops of #Francine. One notable thing here is the strong westerly flow to the SE of the storm. It looks like this is the remnant of the trough that used to be attached to Francine, and interaction with this feature may explain why there hasn't been significant latitude gain yet.

Another is the effects of the diurnal minimum setting in. Central convection has waned, uncovering the eye somewhat, while banding convection remains strong. This degradation of central convection is seen well on the latest radar. This is probably a sign that the quick burst of intensification has stopped, and until more central convection forms, there will be little progress on developing the inner core. If this structure persists, it may cause broadening and a less intense storm in the long run. We'll have to see what ends up happening

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Dont think this makes passed Vermillion bay coming in

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Famous last words

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When you compare the 1pm come to the 4pm come; the only thing that shifted was the east side. 1pm come had the range from LA/TX border to the east side of Lake Pontchartrain 1pm come had the range from LA/TX border to the west side of Lake Pontchartrain

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The edges of the cone shift for two reasons:

1) Technical reasons that have to do with the methodology- The cone gets smaller as the time until each interval shrinks. The edges at 24 hours are half the width of the edges at 60 hours, for example. Also, keep in mind the last cone was issued at 10am, so there is no apples to apples comparison of the intervals since it’s only been 6 hours. The intervals are 12/24/36/48/60/72/96/120, but they’re also based on Zulu time, so at 10a the “12h” forecast was 7pm CT, then so on and so forth. At 4pm, the 12h forecast is 1am. You won’t be able to compare the 10am forecast to the same time frame until the 10pm forecast.

-OR-

2) The actual track shifts.

They just announced in KPLC that it’s safer to let the debris stay until after the system passes through lol. Gotta love our local officials

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we should know a lot more in the next 48 hrs.

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possibly down to 45 hours till landfall.

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Already got the rain jacket on