re: Experts believe 1 in 3 positive infected patients getting negative test result

quote:

---

WSJ

---

Trump bashed one of their reporters for running with conjecture at a virus briefing a few days ago.

quote:

---

Currently Orleans Parish sitting at 115 deaths out of a population of 400,000 people. That's already double your estimate - and assumes 100% of the people in the parish have it (0.029%).

---

you know a death rate is different for different areas because of demographics right? Please tell me you know that.

It has already been reported that tests some European countries bought from China had 30% sensitivity rating (70% actually with virus not detected).

The original tests sent out by WHO and probably CDC had to be made using genome mapped by China because they would share actual samples the original 2 strains spreading there.

The study using patients in Wuhan back in Feb and saying tests used were similar to US seems strange considering CDC did their own (but again all started from China's genuine at least I think). Unless it's talking about using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) tests generally.

But article also throws in this with all the 70% stuff

quote:

---

The technology that underpins the new coronavirus tests so far available, a genetic method called polymerase chain reaction, typically detects over 90% of positive cases accurately, said Tom Taylor, a professor and former CDC statistician. In less dire circumstances, he said, the CDC would typically do a study to verify the accuracy of such tests, which might take a year.

---

And even though for doctors treating it's probably safest precaution with the boy until another test why wouldn't they get him tested again instead "betting".

quote:

---

Last week, a 16-month-old boy in Florida tested positive for the new coronavirus, a lab report shows. A few days later, he tested negative at a second lab.
The chief medical officer at the practice where the tests were ordered is betting that the positive result is the right one.

---

That's like the NO healthcare worker that died whose test came back negative. They had them redo test with same sample and sent another sample to a university, and all came back negative.

quote:

---

Country - Institute - Gene targets

China - China CDC - ORF1ab and Nucleoprotein (N)

Germany- Charité - RdRP, E, N

Hong Kong - HKU - ORF1b-nsp14, N

Japan - NIID - Pancorona and multiple targets, Spike protein (Peplomer)

Thailand - National Institute of Health - N

United States - US CDC - Three targets in N gene

France - Pasteur Institute - Two targets in RdRP Detection of virus using PCR tests

---

No one was expecting any tests to be perfect especially in such a short time. After hitting over 1 million results in just over 2 weeks now some want to bitch about oversight after just complaining about CDC oversight slowing down process.

quote:

---

By the end of this the death rate is gonna be 0.015%

---

That doesn’t sound very trivial to me if half the people in the country get it and 250K people die.

When this thing started and Louisiana received 2000 tests kits, JBE tried clarifying the reason the tested/confirmed/kits numbers didn’t make sense. At the time he said it took 3-4 test kits to confirm a single positive. ...So, it sounds like the quality of testing kits is slowly improving.