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Dr. David Katz offers logic on Bill Maher Last Night
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:11 am
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:11 am
15m Insightful Interview
Quite interesting how intelligent one can sound when not jumping to conclusions and promoting one extreme side or another, now isn’t it?
Basically, he is advocating protecting high risk individuals and letting the rest of the population go on as usual. The curve is flattened, there is no way to eradicate the virus, a vaccine may take years, so let’s build up herd immunity so that when we are released from our caves we don’t just start this all over again.
Quite interesting how intelligent one can sound when not jumping to conclusions and promoting one extreme side or another, now isn’t it?
Basically, he is advocating protecting high risk individuals and letting the rest of the population go on as usual. The curve is flattened, there is no way to eradicate the virus, a vaccine may take years, so let’s build up herd immunity so that when we are released from our caves we don’t just start this all over again.
This post was edited on 4/25/20 at 11:20 am
5
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:25 am to Salamander_Wilson
Thanks for posting. Everyone interested in this should watch this whole clip. Maybe we should add this guy to the team of "experts" advising our leaders.
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:41 am to Salamander_Wilson
quote:
letting the rest of the population go on as usual.
quote:
Dr. David Katz offers logic on Bill Maher
About to be some confused rednecks up in here.
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:42 am to dbeck
quote:
About to be some confused rednecks up in here.
I was one of them, but the guy seems to make a lot of sense.
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:48 am to Salamander_Wilson
quote:
build up herd immunity
I agree with the overall approach but we aren’t even sure this is possible with this virus yet
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:50 am to Salamander_Wilson
Haven't watched the guy, but what we're doing just doesn't make much sense to me. You're drawing out infection over time trying to get to points b and c.
The issue is the order of points b and c (herd immunity/workable vaccine). By continuing and drawing out, you are banking on the "workable vaccine" option is point b before the "herd immunity" option, which would be point c.
The delta between point b, vaccine, and point c, herd immunity, is what you are doing this shelter in place for. The shorter the delta, the less worth it it is. You are banking on the delta being large enough to out weigh the negative side effects.
This of course assumes, as we have seen, hospital capacity will not get overrun causing unnecessary serious illness/death.
The issue is the order of points b and c (herd immunity/workable vaccine). By continuing and drawing out, you are banking on the "workable vaccine" option is point b before the "herd immunity" option, which would be point c.
The delta between point b, vaccine, and point c, herd immunity, is what you are doing this shelter in place for. The shorter the delta, the less worth it it is. You are banking on the delta being large enough to out weigh the negative side effects.
This of course assumes, as we have seen, hospital capacity will not get overrun causing unnecessary serious illness/death.
This post was edited on 4/25/20 at 11:53 am
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:52 am to DallasTiger11
quote:
I agree with the overall approach but we aren’t even sure this is possible with this virus yet
We are less sure there can be a workable vaccine.
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:54 am to Salamander_Wilson
quote:The OT has been advocating this for weeks.
Basically, he is advocating protecting high risk individuals and letting the rest of the population go on as usual.
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:55 am to LSUminati
quote:
This of course assumes, as we have seen, hospital capacity will not get overrun causing unnecessary serious illness/death.
Spreading out infections was, most importantly and what you mention, about not overrunning hospitals.
However, the other benefit was the hope that given extra time we would be able to develop/discover better methods of treatment.
This post was edited on 4/25/20 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:55 am to DallasTiger11
quote:
I agree with the overall approach but we aren’t even sure this is possible with this virus yet
True, but the numbers associated with asymptomatic carriers and now...those with antibodies present, seem to strongly suggest "herd immunity" is likely.
In short, we have to start somewhere and what this doctor is suggesting is both logical and reasonable imho.
Posted on 4/25/20 at 11:59 am to Asharad
quote:
letting the rest of the population go on as usual.
I don't think he goes this far. But what he has to say shows the folly (and maybe future danger) of the current lockdown/stay at home approach. We are overdue for opening most things back up. It sounds crazy to say, but we actually need people to be getting infected, albeit in a more gradual way.
This post was edited on 4/25/20 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 4/25/20 at 12:05 pm to jimmy the leg
It is still a completely unproven assumption that people with antibodies really are immune to it.
Not sure what we can do about it since we probably just have to re-open on schedule anyway.
However, all these elaborate plans to "clear' people with antibodies seem to be a bit premature when there's no real evidence that passing an antibody test means immunity (not to even mention that some of the tests seem to have 10-15% inaccuracy margins).
Better to have a re-opening plan that doesn't need to include such large untested assumptions since a second shutdown in short time would be worse than this one.
This post was edited on 4/25/20 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 4/25/20 at 12:18 pm to wm72
quote:But isn’t it a good assumption that this coronavirus works like basically every other virus? I’m sick of everyone saying “there’s no evidence that....” when it comes to this thing because of course there will be no evidence of anything for a brand new virus.
It is still a completely unproven assumption that people with antibodies really are immune to it.
But we know how related viruses work and can make decent assumptions based off those.
Posted on 4/25/20 at 12:32 pm to Cold Drink
quote:
But isn’t it a good assumption that this coronavirus works like basically every other virus?
Nothing in my post says that it's not a decently probable assumption.
However, forgetting that it is still an assumption and basing too much policy such as spending billions on questionable antibody tests and assuming people who test positive pose no risk whatsoever seems like the height of stupidity.
It may turn out to be the case that people exposed to trace amounts of virus they quickly got rid of now test positive for antibodies but are not really immune.
Even more importantly, to base too much on tests that many suggest may reveal 10-15% false positives is equally absurd.
I'm not saying this is a reason to not re-open. I am saying that the re-opening plans should be very aware of the possibility that antibody tests are not as reliable as their perfect best case scenario.
This post was edited on 4/25/20 at 1:21 pm
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