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Despite low oil, Gulf of Mexico production expected to hit record high

Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:48 am
Posted by RedRifle
Austin/NO
Member since Dec 2013
8335 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:48 am
LINK

quote:

Even with the price of oil hovering near $30 a barrel, crude production from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to hit record levels in 2017, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects. Because deep-water projects are costly and take years to come online, many expensive projects were authorized before the price of oil began to plummet. In general, Gulf production is less sensitive to short-term crude pricing movement than onshore shale production. The EIA projects Gulf production will average 1.63 million barrels per day this year and 1.79 million barrels a day in 2017, including hitting 1.91 million barrels in December 2017. The previous high of more than 1.7 million barrels came in 2009 in advance of the 2010 drilling moratorium after the Deepwater Horizon tragedy.
Posted by Mrs. Amaro
Uptown Shreveport
Member since Nov 2004
3660 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:50 am to
So what does this mean, that oil is going to drop $/barrel even more?

Mother F*cker
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:50 am to
Posted by MightyYat
StB Garden District
Member since Jan 2009
25029 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:51 am to
Oil certainly isn't going anywhere despite the politics of it all. Companies are still refining crude at a record pace. Oil & gas needs to just ride the wave right now. Things will get better.
Posted by Wally Sparks
Atlanta
Member since Feb 2013
32887 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:52 am to
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38451 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:52 am to
Great. More facebook posts from the oil crowd are in my future.
Posted by tke857
Member since Jan 2012
12195 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:54 am to
so them off shore oil baws will be good right?
Posted by KG6
Member since Aug 2009
10920 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:56 am to
This is all forecasted already. No real change in what operators are going to do because of this news. If they are shocked by this, they are terrible business people seeing as they are the ones creating all of these numbers. So all layoffs are already based off of this knowledge.
Posted by bamarep
Member since Nov 2013
52637 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:58 am to
So that means my trucknut stock wasn't a waste! Offshore baws to the rescue!


Posted by SEClint
New Orleans, LA/Portland, OR
Member since Nov 2006
49487 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 10:59 am to
quote:

So what does this mean


Propaganda
Posted by TexasTiger39
Member since Mar 2009
3671 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 11:01 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/8/20 at 10:31 am
Posted by KG6
Member since Aug 2009
10920 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 11:07 am to
quote:

doesn't mean they can't be canceled...
if it isn't profitable, they wont be doing it


They are cancelling some. But pretty much anyone in a rig contract was seeing that rig contract through. You have some pretty large fees associated with cancelling a rig contract. So if they already paid for the equipment, allocated money to the AFE, have a rig that they are required to pay for, they complete the project. Now that it's been a year or so and rig contracts are up for renewal, you see projects falling fast. No new orders for equipment, lot's of rigs getting dropped, lot's of projects sitting in limbo. Last year wasn't slow at all in the grand scheme of things. This year is a different story so far.

When they say years to "come online", the well may drilled and completed, but the production platform is still being prepared to take on the reserves. I know plenty of wells that sit for months before they flow.
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
75949 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 11:11 am to
The $1.00/gallon of gas OT poors won't like this
This post was edited on 2/22/16 at 11:12 am
Posted by TigerDog83
Member since Oct 2005
8858 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 11:13 am to
quote:

doesn't mean they can't be canceled...


I'm pretty sure that these are deepwater projects that were already well into construction with most of the wells likely already drilled and awaiting facility installation. Companies likely spent most of the capital and those costs are sunk. Cash flow even at $30 a barrel is more attractive than eating a 100% loss on capital spent so the project gets completed and put on line. I would assume projects that are just in the appraisal stages will indeed be cancelled. Ask some of the manufacturers how new orders are looking once existing projects get completed - it's ugly.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91874 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 11:15 am to
quote:

doesn't mean they can't be canceled...

if it isn't profitable, they wont be doing it


I'm not sure you understand the article.

Once the well is drilled and the ability to produce comes online, you basically HAVE to pump oil to pay for everything you've already spent. The production costs are already spent - at this point you have to take what you can get in order to pay your bills.
Posted by TheIndulger
Member since Sep 2011
19448 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 11:34 am to
Right. The production that comes online has mostly been paid for already, so they have to produce it. The projects that may be cancelled are the ones further down the line (several years) that are in early planning stages.
Posted by oldcharlie8
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2012
7905 posts
Posted on 2/22/16 at 11:35 am to
quote:

1.63 million barrels per day this year and 1.79 million barrels a day in 2017,


and the country uses 20 million barrels per day. go figure
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