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re: Category 5 Hurricane Melissa - 185 mph, 892mb, Top 3 in Recorded History
Posted on 10/22/25 at 8:49 pm to Spankum
Posted on 10/22/25 at 8:49 pm to Spankum
quote:
what is causing the various models to be so inconsistent from model to model?
How fast they organize the storm. The GFS has been too fast since the get go. That resulted in a deeper system that could more easily feel the weaknesses from the passing trough. A couple of days ago the GFS already had this heading NE into the trough. On the flip side, the UK Met keeps this weak long enough for the low-level flow to push it into Central America. That's how you end up with this:
1
Posted on 10/22/25 at 9:13 pm to rds dc
I wonder how good/accurate rainfall records are in Jamaica? This has a chance to shatter whatever records are there if it stalls to its south. It has pegged out the scale of every model for accum. precip.
Posted on 10/22/25 at 9:51 pm to rds dc
quote:
it could make a run at Wilma and Gilbert
Aint lost on me itll be in the same general area both went bananas in too.
quote:
It will come down to inner core dynamics and how long it can hold on before an ERC
Im about as curious to its max rate of pressure drop as the final numbers.
Posted on 10/22/25 at 10:13 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I wonder how good/accurate rainfall records are in Jamaica?
i always find them a bit high
This post was edited on 10/22/25 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 10/23/25 at 4:02 pm to LegendInMyMind
The cone from the NHC looks catastrophic for Jamaica. Major hurricane sitting just offshore for over 3 days
Posted on 10/23/25 at 4:18 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:
Major hurricane sitting just offshore for over 3 days
You'd be talking unfathomable erosion, flooding and landslides in the mountainous areas not even factoring in wind and storm surge when it finally comes ashore.
And if a storm pushes surge into an area already devastated by flooding from rain bands it would greatly reduce the rate at which the waters would recede to allow people to perform rescues, etc.
On the upside can you imagine the surfing?
Posted on 10/23/25 at 4:29 pm to gaetti15
quote:
always find them a bit high
Yah we got some rain, mon. Covered up me flip flops.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 4:55 pm to tide06
quote:
You'd be talking unfathomable erosion, flooding and landslides in the mountainous areas not even factoring in wind and storm surge when it finally comes ashore. And if a storm pushes surge into an area already devastated by flooding from rain bands it would greatly reduce the rate at which the waters would recede to allow people to perform rescues, etc.
Reminds me of Hurricane Mitch that sat over Honduras for a few days.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 5:21 pm to FrontlineTiger
quote:
FrontlineTiger
Stop.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 5:57 pm to FrontlineTiger
quote:
It's past time to defund this non sense.
Don't send your kids to CSU
Also, their 1st forecast was issued on April 3 and called for 17 named storms, with 4 majors. We are currently at 13 & 3 with Melissa forecast to become the 4th major. It's likely there will be another named storm or two. So, we could see final numbers of 15/4 vs. their 17/4 forecast.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 6:14 pm to BritLSUfan
They only use one model. Just multiple runs of the same model with bright colors for those not god at reading.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 10:11 pm to rds dc
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. A three day total of foot or more forecast for eastern Jamaica with possibly two more days of rain after that. NHC is now forecasting a Major hurricane that will move less than 150 miles in ~36 hours time.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 11:03 pm to rds dc
quote:
Also, their 1st forecast was issued on April 3 and called for 17 named storms, with 4 majors. We are currently at 13 & 3 with Melissa forecast to become the 4th major. It's likely there will be another named storm or two. So, we could see final numbers of 15/4 vs. their 17/4 forecast.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 11:09 pm to Drank
Current ACE is 20% below average
If Melissa can hang as a major for a couple days it becomes an essentially average season
Certainly not above average as they will pick every year
If Melissa can hang as a major for a couple days it becomes an essentially average season
Certainly not above average as they will pick every year
This post was edited on 10/23/25 at 11:11 pm
Posted on 10/23/25 at 11:59 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Certainly not above average as they will pick every year
Sigh......
Posted on 10/24/25 at 12:10 am to LegendInMyMind
I don’t have family in Jamaica but if I did, I’d tell them they need to get off that island and be prepared to never go back.
Posted on 10/24/25 at 7:16 pm to BregmansWheelbarrow
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Jamaica is now forecast to have a direct landfall from a possible Cat. 5. That final approach to landfall looks to take almost a full day as Melissa creeps towards land. Rainfall forecast for more than half the island is now 20-30" over four days.
Posted on 10/24/25 at 11:16 pm to Swazla
If it's decent enough for tropical tidbits to include it in analysis it's good enough for me as one source of info.
Meantime... prayers for residents of Jamaica.. looks like its going to be rough.
I can't imagine.
Meantime... prayers for residents of Jamaica.. looks like its going to be rough.
I can't imagine.
Posted on 10/25/25 at 7:00 am to LegendInMyMind
Not only that if you look at where it’s supposed to go the capital is what would take the worst of the storm surge and flooding.
Given my one trip there (never again) those houses aren’t exactly built to modern storm codes although there is a good bit of cinderblock that they’ll just have to attach new roofs to after the storm moves through.
Given my one trip there (never again) those houses aren’t exactly built to modern storm codes although there is a good bit of cinderblock that they’ll just have to attach new roofs to after the storm moves through.
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