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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 1/2/18 at 6:02 am to Python
Noticed NWS has upped snow chances in some areas and is mentioning ~1/2 inch accumulations Tuesday Night after Midnight.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
346 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018
.SHORT TERM...
Two main short wave features are showing up in WV imagery this
morning. The first is over central Manitoba, which will not affect
us. The second shows up as deep dry air over southern Montana and
Wyoming. This one will affect us and it will be responsible for
drawing some moisture northward very slowly late today. The
moisture should be deep enough to squeeze some snow flakes over
mainly south shore locations but it would not be at all surprising
to see a flake or two over a few coastal areas of the north
shore.
Keeping a chance of snow in the fcast for mainly south shore
locations overnight tonight. The update to these grid sections
were mainly cosmetic and semantic. Tried to keep pop numbers where
previous fcast had them since this looks very good. WPC also
paints some measureable precip in these same areas as well and
this brings up the chance of a snow amount instead of flurries.
There is a big difference in snow amount and accumulation. The
idea is there will be a measureable snow amount that falls but it
will not be enough to accumulate. So a 10:1 ratio would show a
.10" of snow amount with a .01" QPF while there will be no
accumlation. As confusing as this may be, a simplified version
can be written like this; Light snow may occur over south shore
locations tonight with a few areas receiving some snowfall
slightly heavier than flurries. Hope that helps.
The cold temperatures will be the biggest issue through the next
few days. All areas are into the 20s this morning and still
falling. Have kept all advisories and warnings as is. There may
be the addition of another hard freeze warning for Wed night but
will let at least one of the current 3 headlines fall before
adding another of the same headline.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
346 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018
.SHORT TERM...
Two main short wave features are showing up in WV imagery this
morning. The first is over central Manitoba, which will not affect
us. The second shows up as deep dry air over southern Montana and
Wyoming. This one will affect us and it will be responsible for
drawing some moisture northward very slowly late today. The
moisture should be deep enough to squeeze some snow flakes over
mainly south shore locations but it would not be at all surprising
to see a flake or two over a few coastal areas of the north
shore.
Keeping a chance of snow in the fcast for mainly south shore
locations overnight tonight. The update to these grid sections
were mainly cosmetic and semantic. Tried to keep pop numbers where
previous fcast had them since this looks very good. WPC also
paints some measureable precip in these same areas as well and
this brings up the chance of a snow amount instead of flurries.
There is a big difference in snow amount and accumulation. The
idea is there will be a measureable snow amount that falls but it
will not be enough to accumulate. So a 10:1 ratio would show a
.10" of snow amount with a .01" QPF while there will be no
accumlation. As confusing as this may be, a simplified version
can be written like this; Light snow may occur over south shore
locations tonight with a few areas receiving some snowfall
slightly heavier than flurries. Hope that helps.
The cold temperatures will be the biggest issue through the next
few days. All areas are into the 20s this morning and still
falling. Have kept all advisories and warnings as is. There may
be the addition of another hard freeze warning for Wed night but
will let at least one of the current 3 headlines fall before
adding another of the same headline.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 8:15 am to GEAUXmedic
Had some light sleet in Houston this morning, just for a couple minutes though. Radar shows a decent band moving through Ft Bend.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 8:36 am to LSUJuice
Yeah AccuWeather radar indicates some pretty decent snowfall in Southeast TX right now.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 9:00 am to dgtiger3
I wonder just how much of that is making it to the ground. Still, wasn't anticipating quite that signature out of Texas this morning. Definitely worth watching if you live on the southshore. Still think north of I-10 is going to be too dried out at the lower levels to produce snow.
ETA: The stars look to be lining up nicely for Jacksonville and up the coast into NC for a proper snowstorm. If I saw correctly, NWS out of Jacksonville is rolling out winter weather advisories already. That shortwave coming over La tonight will get working with a developing low in the Atlantic.
ETA: The stars look to be lining up nicely for Jacksonville and up the coast into NC for a proper snowstorm. If I saw correctly, NWS out of Jacksonville is rolling out winter weather advisories already. That shortwave coming over La tonight will get working with a developing low in the Atlantic.
This post was edited on 1/2/18 at 9:04 am
Posted on 1/2/18 at 9:18 am to Duke
6:00am tomorrow morning
Gotta wonder if it will be too "cold dry" for it to even make it to the ground. It's not every day that we are too dry for precip to fall because it's too cold.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 9:25 am to Duke
It's definitely reaching the ground. I'm in am area where there were very faint radar returns, and we had light sleet. Echos looked heavier down in Fort bend so I'm guessing they had heavier stuff than I saw.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 9:33 am to LSUJuice
Thanks Juice. That's useful information. The bands look a little far south for Louisiana as it stands but our short range models weren't picking it up at all...watching soundings and dew points in Louisiana this evening with a close eye.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 12:24 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Gotta wonder if it will be too "cold dry" for it to even make it to the ground. It's not every day that we are too dry for precip to fall because it's too cold
New Orleans has a dew point at 16 right now. Still too low but slowly moistening up.
BR is at 11. Going to need a rapid increase in moisture that doesn't appear to be in the cards. A dew point in the teens and even single digits in the BR area is kind of incredible.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 12:26 pm to Duke
Posted on 1/2/18 at 12:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
not gonna get up to me 
Posted on 1/2/18 at 12:41 pm to GEAUXmedic
Still hanging out down in the gulf and it seems early for all the precip to be moving this way. Better returns on radar than I expected though. South shore is starting to look like they'll get a little winter fun today.
Those of us in the frigid north of BR just get cold.
Those of us in the frigid north of BR just get cold.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 12:43 pm to rt3
I don't have anything to add except my observed report. It's cold outside and really not fun anymore. Now I understand the plight of the Florida snowbird.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 12:43 pm to Duke
Steve Caparotta said on the noon news BR could see a few flurries but it won't amount to anything because of the very dry air mass with the dew points.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 12:44 pm to Duke
What's your bet on south Baton Rouge's possibility of seeing anything?
Posted on 1/2/18 at 12:46 pm to tigerbandpiccolo
quote:
I don't have anything to add except my observed report. It's cold outside and really not fun anymore. Now I understand the plight of the Florida snowbird.
if I'm gonna have my nuts freeze up like this... I need something aesthetically pleasing (i.e. snow)
this ain't it
Posted on 1/2/18 at 12:50 pm to tigerbandpiccolo
quote:
What's your bet on south Baton Rouge's possibility of seeing anything?
Slim. It's too dry. Anything that falls will evaporate and add some moisture to the lower levels but there's not enough moisture available to overcome the dry air. If we see the dew point recover into the low to mid 20s by 6 pm, then we might have a shot. So far today, we've been sitting at 11 and the wind is out of the north still. Need a quick change to the SW for that to change.
Farther south is a bit wetter. Putting south of I10 in position to see something.
Posted on 1/2/18 at 1:03 pm to Duke
Lake Pontchartrain water temperature is down to 44 degrees. It’s getting serious, Southshore folks! 
Posted on 1/2/18 at 1:06 pm to LSUneaux
quote:
Lake Pontchartrain water temperature is down to 44 degrees. It’s getting serious, Southshore folks!
Is this when that earlier predicted Slidell lake effect kicks in?
Posted on 1/2/18 at 1:10 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Is this when that earlier predicted Slidell lake effect kicks in?
No.
The lake isn't really large enough to make lake effect happen, and the winds certainly aren't out of the right direction if it was.
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