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Started By
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re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2
Posted on 12/27/17 at 2:37 pm to TDsngumbo
Posted on 12/27/17 at 2:37 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:lol- yeah that’s not happening. That particular (very unlikely) forecast would have Orlando in the low-mid teens. That’s never happened. Our all time record low was19 back in ‘85. And in all of recorded history have only made it to the low 20’s like twice.
That's after damn near a whole week of highs in the low to mid 20's. Although this is hard to believe --- 24 degrees almost to Miami, FL??
This post was edited on 12/27/17 at 5:30 pm
1
Posted on 12/27/17 at 2:46 pm to otowntiger
Not to nit-pick, but the thread title says models have come into agreement. I don't think that's true yet.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 2:50 pm to notiger1997
All I know is that 21 degrees beats the shite out of 7 degrees so I like the upward trend.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 3:14 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Not to nit-pick, but the thread title says models have come into agreement. I don't think that's true yet.
Exactly. Statistically, it's a good bet to bet against single digits temperatures in south Louisiana. HOWEVER, models are beginning to align together on some very, very cold days next week. One of those models has us with snow/ice and a prolonged period of highs in the mid 20's with one morning dipping to 6 degrees. Is that an outlier? Yes. But so is the model showing highs in the upper 30's - it's an outlier in that it's the warmest.
In these events it's important to remember that forecasts are made using model consensus and that outlier models are usually taken with a "it can happen but not likely" attitude. It's also important to remember that these models are created using very, very sophisticated formulas that take into consideration real-time data collected from every corner of the world, not just across the US. They are not exact science but they're the closest to it that meteorology has gotten to date.
A brutal cold outbreak is quite possible next week. A stretch of 3-4 days of quite cold conditions is likely.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 3:19 pm to TDsngumbo
It's already too damn cold here in Cenla. It hasn't been above 50 since Christmas Eve and not expected to before middle of next week.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 3:26 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:And I had shite I wanted to do this week that did not involve cold and wet.
It's already too damn cold here in Cenla. It hasn't been above 50 since Christmas Eve and not expected to before middle of next week.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 3:26 pm to AlxTgr
Im off all next week. Was hoping fish erryday but that may not happen
Posted on 12/27/17 at 3:55 pm to notiger1997
Here’s a place to compare models.
Weather.us Baton Rouge
I encourage anyone to post pics.
Canadian has Baton Rouge at 4.5 degrees on 1/6 while other models have us at 46 degrees at that same time.
Weather.us Baton Rouge
I encourage anyone to post pics.
Canadian has Baton Rouge at 4.5 degrees on 1/6 while other models have us at 46 degrees at that same time.
This post was edited on 12/27/17 at 4:03 pm
Posted on 12/27/17 at 4:29 pm to TDsngumbo
The model forecast low on the morning of 1/2/18 in B.R. the last several GFS runs has been:
13, 16, 16, 19, 27, 24, 25, 25
Looks like the model is converging on the mid 20s. Nothing ridiculous, but a few degrees colder is still possible.
13, 16, 16, 19, 27, 24, 25, 25
Looks like the model is converging on the mid 20s. Nothing ridiculous, but a few degrees colder is still possible.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 4:31 pm to NorthEndZone
True but the fact is that these models usually under perform on arctic air. Meaning their track record is usually that of forecasting temps a few degrees higher than they actually wind up being.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 4:34 pm to TDsngumbo
Yeah upper teens to mid 20s is probably what will occur.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 4:37 pm to bayoubengals88
Every model on there says it will be cold. Some much colder than others. Pulling for the American from what I can tell and frick Canada
This post was edited on 12/27/17 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 12/27/17 at 4:45 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Pulling for the American from what I can tell and frick Canada
I'd settle for the American model to be correct but honestly, call me crazy, but I really want the Canadian to be correct. I've never experienced single digit temps so for once, I'd like to see just how painful that kind of cold is.
I'm kinda weird.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 4:45 pm to bayoubengals88
Yall sure that canadian version isnt in Celsius?
This post was edited on 12/27/17 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 12/27/17 at 4:50 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
and frick Canada
I want some REAL cold for once in my life
Posted on 12/27/17 at 5:03 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
I really want the Canadian to be correct. I've never experienced single digit temps so for once, I'd like to see just how painful that kind of cold is.
The problem is that kind of cold is serious down here. Homeless people will end up dying. You get housefires from people trying to stay warm. Some industrial processes around here have issues with a sustained deep freeze like the Canadian has.
Ive shoveled snow in Sub-Zero temps. It fricking sucks.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 5:23 pm to Duke
Its gonna cost me about $2k. Was not prepared for it
Posted on 12/27/17 at 5:30 pm to Duke
quote:
Some industrial processes around here have issues with a sustained deep freeze like the Can
Can someone expound on this as to how it could affect the chemical plants and refineries down here?
Posted on 12/27/17 at 5:35 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Its gonna cost me about $2k
Funny how that works. I spent double that last week on a new condensing unit for my AC unit.
Posted on 12/27/17 at 5:36 pm to notiger1997
Exxon exploded last time BR saw single digits. 1988 I think.
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