re: Beta - Downgraded to TD - Now Short Break in Storms or Season Over?

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Text HOME to 741741 to connect with a Crisis Counselor

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Don't work yourself up over any of the models on this one. It's way too unpredictable right now. Hang in there.

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As we like to say on other boards...”way too much smoke to ignore.”

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Houston has avoided the major hurricane but damn if a tropical system is going to stall somewhere, you can almost guarantee Houston is where it'll happen

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I am sure shite not getting caught up at the office like i did for Imelda

Well... that's my new favorite gif.

I'm stealing that

Hopefully, after Teddy and Beta, we get a week or two break, but October is looking to stay just as active, particularly for FL and the possibility of an east coast storm. The setup longterm through October should be favorable for these systems.

And, yes, an active second half of Sept and October was forecast prior to the season.

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And, yes, an active second half of Sept and October was forecast prior to the season.

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It should cool down for a week or two after Beta gets done. October is screaming for some west Caribbean to Florida curvers though and wouldn't be surprised to see an east coast runner come out of the Caribbean either. Shear anomolies look quite low in that part of the basin and October is the season for that sort of genesis.

Which i now realize is basically what you said. I need a nap.

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I am pretty good with Geography

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looking for Portugal in South America

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Euro getting it just inland in south Texas and then starting a run up the Texas coast just onshore starting Wednesday. So basic idea is holding. North then west and then N to NE by Wednesday.

Just how west in weak steering is the question at this point. Sounds kind of familiar but I can't think of why.

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Both hmon and hwrf have this thing staying weak and stalling out and dying over texas between corpus and brownsville. Not dumping terrible amount of rain there either

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Pretty in line with the globals too. I know the GFS a dick earlier, but it was a count hair from getting it inland and not being that much trouble either.

We've had the ridge to the east of it trend a little stronger today, pushes it near or inland in Texas. The shortwave kick to the NE does dive out of the Rockies, weak but strong enough to push it NE but after it's basically inland the way things are trending.

Only the UKMet is showing a more dangerous set up with it hanging out farther south and not getting inland. Just sitting off Corpus on the 24 about to run NE. Outlier at this point at least as it isn't building the ridge in like the GFS or Euro.