re: Average high temp in BR over the next week 103 degrees

at least when it's cold my AC isn't running 90% of the day running up my electric bill

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

quote:

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 301550
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1050 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

A few updates this morning. First and most important was the
issuance of the Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow and the
Excessive Heat Watch for Tuesday. Midnight shift was very
confident we would hit Warning criteria tomorrow and after a quick
looks at the new data along with what was already occuring this
morning saw nothing to disagree with that expectation. For the
sake of getting the information out faster especially being a
Sunday we have opted to issue the Warning and Watch now instead of
waiting till 4 pm. Highs tomorrow look to be a degree, 2, or
possibly even 3 degrees warmer in some spots and with no real
drier LL air moving in see no reason why we won`t easily see Heat
Index values of 113 or higher in many locations. Yes some places
will remain below but the majority of the area will likely reach
warning criteria while others are just a touch below. Biggest
concern with respect to hitting those heat index and ambient temp
values tomorrow will be convection and that is the other forecast
update for today.

Convection could develop again and that would provide some
temporary relief from the heat but when and where is highly
uncertain. The best chance for any storms to impact the area will
be late this afternoon and perhaps a few hours into the evening.
Thanks to northwest and northerly flow for that but also the very
warm conditions that will require the area to warm up enough to
get anything to spark. A few isolated storms could possibly
develop late this afternoon along boundaries that collide much
like yesterday afternoon where seabreeze/lake breeze/and even the
slight differential heating boundary provided by the Pearl River
led to a few storms developing. After that it was outflow
boundaries that helped things along. Problem is with the ridge
still trying to build in the suppression in the mid lvls will
increase and with h5 temps of around -5 to -5.5C it will be
difficult to get anything more than isolated to widely scattered.
Best chance for coverage to be greater than isolated is east of
I-55 and probably could get more specific and say coastal MS. A
few reasons for that. 1 is less impact from the ridge but the
other appears to be in the form of a subtle impulse moving south
through the mid lvls. That should get some convection to fire
across northern/central MS later today and this activity could
quickly surge south as it cold pools moving towards southeastern
and coastal MS by late this afternoon and through the early
evening hours. With that we did slightly increase the PoPs for
coastal MS.

All products including the new NPW to handle the Warning and
Watch have already been sent and grids were updated. /CAB/


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

No large changes in this package. We will begin to come under
northerly flow aloft and in the mid levels later today, and this
will even happen at the sfc before going variable this evening.
Northerly flow is never good for keeping storms from becoming strong
or severe. So that variable will stay with us for at least the short
term. The heat will continue to be the story though. Temps are now
reaching above the century level at least for Baton Rouge. But other
sites may actually get in on this as well. Records should continue
to fall. The heat advisory will remain and we will be at the upper
end of this with the thoughts of a possible heat watch/warning over
the next few days. So why are we mostly talking about BTR. It`s
because this will be the site in the entire CWA that should be the
hottest. Other sites will move to 100F as well but BTR will surpass
it most days. This is due to the orientation of the stacked high
that has moved this way from the SW CONUS. The high will actually
ridge from the Texarkana region SE to near BTR. This corridor should
be the hottest areas for the next few days and possibly beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Key Message: 1. Dangerous heat is expected across southeast
Louisiana and southern MS through the remainder of the week. Stay
hydrated and limit time outdoors during the peak heating hours of
the day.

Low to mid-level ridging centered over Louisiana will dominate
through midweek which will bring record-breaking heat across
southeast LA. 925mb temperatures for Tuesday are solidly 31-32C per
guidance which would be supportive of surface temperatures as high
as 103-104F in Baton Rouge and surrounding metro areas.
Probabilities are highest for New Orleans metro to reach the 100s on
Monday through Wednesday as well. These temperatures coupled with
increased moisture (morning dewpoint temps in the mid to upper 70s)
will cause dangerous heat indices in excess of 110-115F through at
least Wednesday.

Rain chances will be suppressed (10-30%) with ridging overhead, but
still expect pop up storms to be possible in the afternoon primarily
focused along lake and seabreezes in coastal LA and MS. Severe prob
guidance shows a low chance for some of the stronger updrafts that
manage to develop to carry downburst (damaging wind) potential on
Tuesday, a continuation from Monday`s threat.

By late in the week, the ridging will begin to shift southeastward
into the northern Gulf allowing the heatwave to abate some and
enhance southwesterly flow enough to increase afternoon PoPs closer
to climatological average (30-50%). However, it won`t be a
significant reprieve from the heat as temperatures will still be
hovering in the upper 90s to low 100s during the day with heat
indices as high as 108-113F through Friday.

Accounting for Baton Rouge`s record-setting 101F high yesterday, the
forecast currently calls for as much as 8 consecutive days of 100
degree temperatures for BTR. If verified, this would tie the record
for longest streak of consecutive 100F temperatures on record set in
1921.

Other 100F streak records in jeopardy include:
New Orleans MSY - 2 Days (08/01-02/2010 & 07/15-16/1980)
Slidell ASD - 3 Days (06/22-24/2022)
Pascagoula PQL - 5 Days (07/05-09/2019)

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quote:

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Look above and see I posted actual proof.

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The "proof" is unsourced but you can fix that.

The "proof" is also a data set from all of CONUS and not the SE and definitely not SELA. Few here car about what the summer is like in Miami, San Diego, Portland ME, or WA. The data set may be germane to a discussion of the entire US but it is useless for a discussion of the SE, LA, or SELA.

Brother it’s about to be dust bowl the sequel and you know what comes next

Nazis

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Be sure to come back if it happens!

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I will. Be sure to not fricking lie about what I said, either.

Because you still have no clue what I have been saying. You're too damn hysterical.

Apparently, explicitly saying, "Yes it is hotter than Normal.", and "If the trend holds this will be one of the hottest Summers the Baton Rouge area has ever experienced." isn't clear enough for some of these dense motherfrickers.

It is hot. I'm cranky. Forgive me.

And just to clarify, my involvement in these threads began when some jackleg said he has now experienced, "Weeks of 100°+ temperatures in BR" and that they had a, "....similar stretch a few weeks ago." In the next sentence he accused people of "trying to brainwash" him.

I called bullshite.

quote:

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During 1930, 1931, 1933, 1934 and 1936, more than 70% of the US reached 100F (38C.) This year so far has been third lowest on record with only 23% of the US having reached 100F. Summers in the US were much hotter prior to 1960

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Does this data use the same stations across the entire measuring period? Measuring the percent of stations reaching a certain temperature is useless if the actual stations are changing all the time over the measuring period.

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Breaking: It's hot in August in Louisiana

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Breaking:

This summer is hotter than normal in south Louisiana