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re: 9:30am update — predictions thread

Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:38 am to
Posted by Athis
I AM Charlie Kirk....
Member since Aug 2016
16919 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:38 am to
quote:

Coronavirus latest in Louisiana: COVID-19 state cases now at 347; 231 in New Orleans
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21849 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:38 am to
Nationally I expect 2000+ new cases, and 40+ new deaths.

So 190 deaths total and 11,900 cases total so far.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 9:40 am
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:39 am to
347 cases
8 deaths
Posted by Boat Motor Bandit
Member since Jun 2016
1891 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:40 am to
Exactly....those commercial test numbers are about to hit different and folks gonna panic. I know for a fact. we have more cases than just reported at 9:30 and also know for a fact that at least 7 more parishes have cases. Just wait till JBE has the balls to release the real numbers. He is baby feeding us the stats for some reason.
Posted by BiggerBear
Redbone Country
Member since Sep 2011
3164 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:42 am to
quote:

That’s an increase of 102 tests from yesterday with 67 additional confirmations — a 65.6% positive rate! Yes, they only tested those with symptoms, but still that’s huge.



quote:

"Tests Completed by State Lab
805
(does not include commercial testing)"


You cannot calculate a fraction without a denominator.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
37483 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:44 am to
quote:

You cannot calculate a fraction without a denominator.
Of course you can when you're attempting to create hysteria
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
51630 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:44 am to
quote:

they only include the state lab test numbers but they include the commercial test positive results so the positive rate % ins now where close to that

I forgot that! I edited it since it was misleading.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 9:47 am
Posted by gsvar2004
Member since Nov 2007
8894 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:47 am to
do the 930 numbers include the drive through testing sites? they must not because i can't imagine only 5 EBR residents out of all of those tests
Posted by Hat Tricks
Member since Oct 2003
28974 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:48 am to
LINK

Why isn't the cases by parish tab showing up?
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:48 am to
Can someone explain to me the difference between state lab testing and commercial testing?
Posted by MojoGuyPan
Intercession City, Florida
Member since Jun 2018
2797 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:49 am to
quote:

9:30 update:
347 confirmed cases
805 tests
8 deaths


How is Louisiana pulling off these numbers?

Florida has like 5x the population and only has 328 cases and 8 dead. (that includes state and private lab results)

Is it impossible to social distance in Louisiana? Seriously. Was Mardi Gras that much of a factor?
Posted by Russ337
NM
Member since Dec 2013
1473 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:50 am to
416 positive
967 test
15 dead
Posted by jlovel7
NOT Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
24261 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:51 am to
Louisiana is part of that pilot program to do more efficient testing. States with higher numbers are likely just testing more people, not that they have more people necessarily infected. I think people are really failing to grasp that lots already have it but whoever is testing the most is going to show the highest numbers.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
51630 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:51 am to
Louisiana citizens are a very pompous group of people who think they know better than experts. The vast majority of them will never social distance. Then there are many others who probably spread it at Mardi Gras. There’s a reason the majority of cases are in the NOLA area.
Posted by More beer please
Member since Feb 2010
46609 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:52 am to
Yeah because only Louisiana residents go to Mardi Gras
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
51630 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:53 am to
Well more than half of parade goers damn sure aren’t tourists when the world’s biggest party is in our backyard.
Posted by Not Cooper
Member since Jun 2015
5051 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:54 am to
quote:

Seriously. Was Mardi Gras that much of a factor?

Probably. Considering the incubation time and the fact that we only started social distancing a few days ago, the numbers will continue to increase exponentially for the next week or two. If we have enough tests, that is.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:56 am to
quote:

There’s a reason the majority of cases are in the NOLA area.


Do you have any idea what that reason is? There is already over 1mm people in the Orleans/Jefferson area, add Mardi Gras on top of that, the amount of people interacting for 2 weeks straight is off the charts.......1mm of those people went back home some with the virus some without and some dont even know they have it YET...thats why you're going to start seeing these numbers spike in another areas of the state.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:59 am to
quote:

Was Mardi Gras that much of a factor?


Absolutely

Posted by BRIllini07
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
3211 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 10:07 am to
Mardi Gras is a huge factor. People are packed in and camped on the same street corner for a few hours watching parades. That’s a very long exposure time if someone around you is infected.
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