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Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:17 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:17 pm to rds dc
quote:
It doesn't take an expert to see that one of those lines isn't like the others
He was referring to the graphic below. Someone asked, which model was that headed to new orleans, i told him the CMC. Mt Tiger said that wasn't the CMC, it was the XTRP. I told him no, it was the CMC, just an old model cause we forgot to clear the old models before publishing the graphic ( you can see the old run going to NOLA, and the new CMC run going to Tallahassee), then i posted the updated one (that you quoted in your post).
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 9:19 pm
1
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:22 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Keep fighting the good fight
He is posting updates for free... so what is your deal?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:25 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
then i posted the updated one (that you quoted in your post).
Ok, but the straight line going to Texas, that is XTRP. You can see the CMC2 shift around before heading straight towards New Orleans. It was just funny to sit down for the first time this evening and see an argument over XTRP
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:26 pm to rds dc
quote:
Ok, but the straight line going to Texas, that is XTRP. You can see the CMC2 shift around before heading straight towards New Orleans. It was just funny to sit down for the first time this evening and see an argument over XTRP
got ya, didn't know where you were going. eta: didn't notice the XTRP was even IN our graphic.. normally it's not
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:13 pm to GEAUXmedic
The 00z CIMSS analysis has the vort max a bit SW of where the 18z GFS has it at 00z. It's kind of splitting hairs but this is a complicated setup and a couple hundred of miles in one direction or the other could be the deciding factor. The image below is outdated (from this mornings 06z GFS) but it still illustrates the point that minor shifts in 96Ls path/strengthen or shifts in the 500 mb pattern could make a huge difference:
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:33 pm to rds dc
I've been model watching the last several days. Really my first time keeping track of a storms development from its earliest stages. Geaux and Rds, is this storm somewhat atypical in it's development? I've seen models aim as far west as Houston to as far East as no landfall and then shift back west again. It seems that without a defined center of circulation, the models are having a tough time nailing it down. Is this thing just taking his sweet arse time turning into something?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:39 pm to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
Is this thing just taking his sweet arse time turning into something?
yep.. should ramp up overnight and tomorrow.. its all about timing.. literally hours and miles will be the difference between it going out to sea or into the GOM..
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:52 pm to GEAUXmedic
Give me the skinny, what's going to drive it's steering?
Posted on 8/22/14 at 10:59 pm to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
is this storm somewhat atypical in it's development?
It seems like we have seen a number of systems like this over the past few seasons - systems that would be slam dunk OTS with fast development but they just never really get going, just stay weak, and keep moving west of what the models were showing.
quote:
I've seen models aim as far west as Houston to as far East as no landfall and then shift back west again. It seems that without a defined center of circulation, the models are having a tough time nailing it down.
That is pretty typical during the early stages of all systems. The models will thrash around until things get settle down and lead times are reduced. Regardless of a system or not, a Day 7 forecast is always less accurate than a Day 3. Add in that tropical systems are tracked at beyond Day 10 a lot of times and there is all kinds of room for false alarms. This will always be a problem due to the nature of the atmosphere, our ability to collect data, and then assimilate that data into the models.
Always take individual model runs with a grain of salt. Watch for trends, agreement b/w models, and things just don't make sense.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 11:11 pm to rds dc
quote:
Always take individual model runs with a grain of salt. Watch for trends, agreement b/w models, and things just don't make sense.
Speaking of agreement, GFS is east of 18z, but WELL west of 12z.. curious to see if EURO joins all the others tonight..
Posted on 8/22/14 at 11:34 pm to GEAUXmedic
Crazy CMC is crazy again. Takes him out to sea.
NAVGEM hits S Fla, then to Tallahassee as a 976 mb hurricane
NAVGEM hits S Fla, then to Tallahassee as a 976 mb hurricane
This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 11:54 pm
Posted on 8/22/14 at 11:56 pm to GEAUXmedic
This has got to be one of the most frustrating systems to track with all the possible outcomes and the models don't know what to do still.
Posted on 8/22/14 at 11:58 pm to lsuman25
quote:
This has got to be one of the most frustrating systems to track with all the possible outcomes and the models don't know what to do still.
This is how confusing it is:
all model outcomes in one animated sequence
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 12:00 am
Posted on 8/23/14 at 12:01 am to GEAUXmedic
Hopefully by late tomorrow we will have a better idea on where it will go.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 1:33 am to rds dc
Thanks CMC2. Seriously going straight for New Orleans? Not even a shade to the left or right..
Posted on 8/23/14 at 2:39 am to GEAUXmedic
Man...it gun rain
Posted on 8/23/14 at 5:00 am to GEAUXmedic
[quote]LINK ]
That was a cool graphic. But still it seems like 95% of the models still have it tracking east of Florida or a direct east coastline hit.
Doesn't seem like much of a gulf threat right now.
That was a cool graphic. But still it seems like 95% of the models still have it tracking east of Florida or a direct east coastline hit.
Doesn't seem like much of a gulf threat right now.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 5:17 am to LSUzealot
quote:
That was a cool graphic. But still it seems like 95% of the models still have it tracking east of Florida or a direct east coastline hit.
Doesn't seem like much of a gulf threat right now.
I want to agree.. but the models keep going back and forth. I'm 75% east coast, 25% GOM right now, but we've been through this before.. it can change on a dime depending on how quickly it develops, how quickly it moves NW, how strong it gets, etc. It could hurry up and get picked up by the trough to go out to sea, or it could take its time and get caught under the ridge and pushed west into the GOM.. it's just so uncertain.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 5:41 am to GEAUXmedic
If the latest GFS and NAVGEM verify, Christobal gonna wreck shite in FL, GA, and SC.
Posted on 8/23/14 at 5:42 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
If the latest GFS and NAVGEM verify, Christobal gonna wreck shite in FL, GA, and SC.
Lol, yeah I don't feel like posting them here too. GFS came back west, NAVGEM is more east but still passing over a significant portion of land.
This post was edited on 8/23/14 at 5:58 am
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