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Why the Rams aren't scary.
Posted on 1/1/19 at 11:44 pm
Posted on 1/1/19 at 11:44 pm
The NFC splits thread had me curious on things like quality of wins so since I keep harping on how the Rams just beat up bad teams I decided to just show everyone what I mean.
Rams
7 double digit wins
+20 @Oak 4-12
+34 vsAri 3-13
+12 vsLAC 12-4
+29 @SF 4-12
+14 @Det 6-10
+22 @Ari 3-13
+16 vsSF 4-12
Avg margin of victory: +21
Avg opp win total: 5.14
6 single digit wins
+7 vsMin 8-7-1
+2 @Sea 10-6
+3 @Den 6-10
+2 vsGB 6-9-1
+5 vsSea 10-6
+3 vsKC 12-4
Avg margin of victory: +3.67
Avg opp win total: 8.67
3 losses
-10 @NO 13-3
-9 @Chi 12-4
-7 vsPhi 9-7
Avg margin of defeat: -8.67
Avg opp win total: 11.33
This data tells us that against poor teams they won REALLY big, but against average teams that margin shrunk by about 19 points.
There is a clear correlation between margin of victory and opp record throughout all breakdowns. It's not a clear line, but if you graphed it there would be an obvious trend.
Against good teams they lost by an average of more than one score.
Of course the loss data is small so one of those teams isn't nearly as good, and they do have one quality win at home over the Chargers.
But overall the data shows they beat up bad teams and struggled and lost against better teams.
For the curious if you take the Chargers out of the double digit wins (call it the 2 TD wins):
Avg margin of victory: 22.5
Avg opp win total: 4
May do this for the other teams if I have time, but I wanted to illustrate the point I've been making about the Rams beating up on bad teams to make their rep. They really are not to be feared if you are a truly good team (like us and Chi), especially if you have a decent defense (which we seem to have now).
Rams
7 double digit wins
+20 @Oak 4-12
+34 vsAri 3-13
+12 vsLAC 12-4
+29 @SF 4-12
+14 @Det 6-10
+22 @Ari 3-13
+16 vsSF 4-12
Avg margin of victory: +21
Avg opp win total: 5.14
6 single digit wins
+7 vsMin 8-7-1
+2 @Sea 10-6
+3 @Den 6-10
+2 vsGB 6-9-1
+5 vsSea 10-6
+3 vsKC 12-4
Avg margin of victory: +3.67
Avg opp win total: 8.67
3 losses
-10 @NO 13-3
-9 @Chi 12-4
-7 vsPhi 9-7
Avg margin of defeat: -8.67
Avg opp win total: 11.33
This data tells us that against poor teams they won REALLY big, but against average teams that margin shrunk by about 19 points.
There is a clear correlation between margin of victory and opp record throughout all breakdowns. It's not a clear line, but if you graphed it there would be an obvious trend.
Against good teams they lost by an average of more than one score.
Of course the loss data is small so one of those teams isn't nearly as good, and they do have one quality win at home over the Chargers.
But overall the data shows they beat up bad teams and struggled and lost against better teams.
For the curious if you take the Chargers out of the double digit wins (call it the 2 TD wins):
Avg margin of victory: 22.5
Avg opp win total: 4
May do this for the other teams if I have time, but I wanted to illustrate the point I've been making about the Rams beating up on bad teams to make their rep. They really are not to be feared if you are a truly good team (like us and Chi), especially if you have a decent defense (which we seem to have now).
This post was edited on 1/1/19 at 11:47 pm
19
Posted on 1/2/19 at 1:32 am to bonethug0180
Their problem in the playoffs last year was that they were soft. Their o-line and d-line got whipped. No mental toughness. I don't think that problem has gone away as the team is virtually the same, mediocre defense and all.
They're a finesse team that will underperform when the opponent is playing hard-nosed, playoff football. Some of our Saints teams were built exactly the same so it's easy to spot.
They're a finesse team that will underperform when the opponent is playing hard-nosed, playoff football. Some of our Saints teams were built exactly the same so it's easy to spot.
Posted on 1/2/19 at 3:09 am to bonethug0180
@Saints Loss
Gurley - 13 rush attempts - 68 rush yards - 1 TD
3rd and 4th down conversions combined 3/10
@Chicago Loss
Gurley - 11 rush attempts - 28 rush yards - 0 TD
3rd and 4th down conversions combined 4/15
Eagles Loss
Gurley - 12 rush attempts - 48 rush yards - 2 TDs
3rd and 4th down conversions combined 4/13
Rams had 8 turnovers over the 3 games
@NO - Rams had a 0 differential
@CHI - Rams had a -1 differential
PHI - Rams had a -2 differential
It doesnt hurt to have quality run stopping personnel
Chi - No.1 home rush D
NO - No.3 home rush D
Philly - No.5 away rush D
However it is not a neccessity
In LA's best win of the season against KC(@LA) by 3 points
Gurley - 12 rush attempts - 55 rush yards - 0 Rush TD (KC has the 24th Away Rush Defense)
3rd and 4th down conversions combined 6/15
+3 in TO differential with 5 Mahomes turnovers
it may be a simple blue print but it appears to be an effective one against LA.
Contain Gurley
Defensively put LA down and distances that neutralize Gurley's impact
Dont turn the ball over
Their WRs arent enough on their own to dominate a game against the better teams in the NFL.
Gurley - 13 rush attempts - 68 rush yards - 1 TD
3rd and 4th down conversions combined 3/10
@Chicago Loss
Gurley - 11 rush attempts - 28 rush yards - 0 TD
3rd and 4th down conversions combined 4/15
Eagles Loss
Gurley - 12 rush attempts - 48 rush yards - 2 TDs
3rd and 4th down conversions combined 4/13
Rams had 8 turnovers over the 3 games
@NO - Rams had a 0 differential
@CHI - Rams had a -1 differential
PHI - Rams had a -2 differential
It doesnt hurt to have quality run stopping personnel
Chi - No.1 home rush D
NO - No.3 home rush D
Philly - No.5 away rush D
However it is not a neccessity
In LA's best win of the season against KC(@LA) by 3 points
Gurley - 12 rush attempts - 55 rush yards - 0 Rush TD (KC has the 24th Away Rush Defense)
3rd and 4th down conversions combined 6/15
+3 in TO differential with 5 Mahomes turnovers
it may be a simple blue print but it appears to be an effective one against LA.
Contain Gurley
Defensively put LA down and distances that neutralize Gurley's impact
Dont turn the ball over
Their WRs arent enough on their own to dominate a game against the better teams in the NFL.
This post was edited on 1/2/19 at 3:14 am
Posted on 1/2/19 at 6:57 am to bonethug0180
They’re scary enough. Do you think we looked scary down the stretch?
Posted on 1/2/19 at 7:17 am to eddieray
quote:
They’re scary enough. Do you think we looked scary down the stretch?
Pretty much this. Whatever team can best replicate two months or so ago will win. Wouldn’t shock me in the least if Seattle came in and kicked our asses or if we blew everyone out at this point.
Rams needed that bye week probably worse than we did to test their skill players.
This post was edited on 1/2/19 at 7:32 am
Posted on 1/2/19 at 7:52 am to bonethug0180
If we play them and make mistakes, they will beat us. That’s scary enough.
Posted on 1/2/19 at 1:43 pm to partywiththelombardi
They lost Kupp. He was a big part of their passing attack.
He was one of Goff's crutches, and when he was taken away, their ability to convert on 3rd downs has been diminished.
He was one of Goff's crutches, and when he was taken away, their ability to convert on 3rd downs has been diminished.
Posted on 1/2/19 at 1:54 pm to partywiththelombardi
quote:So... stop the run and protect the football. A host of HoF coaches say "hey"....
Contain Gurley
Defensively put LA down and distances that neutralize Gurley's impact
Dont turn the ball over
Posted on 1/2/19 at 2:33 pm to clamdip
I’m sure you could probably pull similar stats for the saints on the road in most years.
If we’re fully healthy no team can beat us in the dome.
Problem is half our ol is banged up and we may be missing Lattimore
We could still win without Armstead, peat and Latt but it’s going to be nail biters
If we’re fully healthy no team can beat us in the dome.
Problem is half our ol is banged up and we may be missing Lattimore
We could still win without Armstead, peat and Latt but it’s going to be nail biters
Posted on 1/2/19 at 2:43 pm to ulsaint
quote:Whats wrong with Lattimore?
and we may be missing Lattimore
Posted on 1/2/19 at 2:55 pm to Mahootney
I don't know how much it affected their 3rd down %, but it had a huge affect on Cooks.
Taking out the first Sea and the Den game (both got hurt in Sea and Kupp in Den):
Cooks with Kupp:
6 games
42 catches (7 per game)
666 yards (111 per game)
15.9 ypc
2 TDs (0.33 per game)
Cooks without Kupp:
8 games
36 catches (4.5 per game)
485 yards (60.625 per game)
13.5 ypc
3 TDs (0.375 per game).
2.5 fewer catches per game is a good bit, and his yards per game are nearly cut in half.
Taking out the first Sea and the Den game (both got hurt in Sea and Kupp in Den):
Cooks with Kupp:
6 games
42 catches (7 per game)
666 yards (111 per game)
15.9 ypc
2 TDs (0.33 per game)
Cooks without Kupp:
8 games
36 catches (4.5 per game)
485 yards (60.625 per game)
13.5 ypc
3 TDs (0.375 per game).
2.5 fewer catches per game is a good bit, and his yards per game are nearly cut in half.
Posted on 1/2/19 at 7:08 pm to bonethug0180
Double teams are more likely when you aren't afraid of getting burned by kupp.
Posted on 1/2/19 at 8:31 pm to bonethug0180
My favorite thing about this is that they went all in for this year and it's really just a couple of weeks until the wheels fall off that Jaguar.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:42 pm to bonethug0180
Figure now's a good time.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:47 pm to ulsaint
quote:
roblem is half our ol is banged up and we may be missing Lattimore
dafuq???
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:50 pm to CptRusty
This was posted when people thought Lattimore got hurt against the Panthers.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:50 pm to bonethug0180
The eagles d-line eating is what makes me nervous.
Rams aren't as good at end but stout at Tackle.
If they can blow up plays like Philly its going to be a grind.
Rams aren't as good at end but stout at Tackle.
If they can blow up plays like Philly its going to be a grind.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:53 pm to HollierThanThou
Yeah the Oline health will be key, but I feel they'll hold up enough to give Brees time.
Containing their run game is a bigger key, imo.
Containing their run game is a bigger key, imo.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:54 pm to bonethug0180
Eddie Lacy in a CJ Anderson jersey doesn't scare me.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 1:55 pm to bonethug0180
They've managed to win 14 of the 17 games they played and that should induce a good healthy dose of respect out of any opponent playing them.
They are not the invincible team talking heads tried to make them out to be during the first two months of the season but they are a darn dangerous team to have to get around.
They are not the invincible team talking heads tried to make them out to be during the first two months of the season but they are a darn dangerous team to have to get around.
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