re: Predict Tyler Shough stats this year

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Do you realize that this would put him in the top 5 or 6 in the league?

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if you strictly look at his 10 games started,
give him a break on the first 2 games of him and team getting aclimated, then you take his 8 games pace and spread that on a 17 game schedule, he averages 4400+ yards and that's a rookie season.

he will have better weapons and better OL this year. Shough is a very matured 2nd year player as we know. Sky is the limit.

I think he's capable of it for sure. We as a team need to have team success in staying healthy and be balanced on both run/pass offensively and have a steady defensive presence. Shough's numbers might take a little bit of a hit if we are WINNING which i'm sure we'll all be ok with. Even still, we want Shough to be efficient, take care of the ball, and the yards will come on their own.

4,400 yds
36 Tds
9 picks

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Capable of it is pretty vague:

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i'm saying capable now. he's already has demonstrated capable now in an 8 game stretch with a pretty badish roster.

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i'm saying capable now. he's already has demonstrated capable now in an 8 game stretch with a pretty badish roster.

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I didn't see your prediction in this thread...only that he's "capable" now of being a top 5-6 QB.

Personally, I think that would be a crazy prediction.

3600yds, 24 TDs 12 INTS.

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This response was funny. I read it as a 1980's commentator in a rather shocking fashion.

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Saints fans are funny. It's an extreme prediction...and there is apparently zero difference between "it could happen" and "it's likely to happen".

I just ran it through AI. The following QBs have been top 6 in passing yards by year 2 of their career:

Here are well-documented examples:
Recent / modern era

C.J. Stroud (2023) – top 6 as a rookie
Justin Herbert (2020–2021) – top 6 in Year 2 (and close as a rookie)
Andrew Luck (2012–2013) – top 6 as a rookie
Patrick Mahomes (2018) – MVP year in first season starting (Year 2 overall)
Jameis Winston (2015–2016) – borderline, but not top 6

2000s–early 2010s

Cam Newton (2011) – top 5 as a rookie
Matthew Stafford (2011) – top 6 by Year 3 (just misses cutoff)
Matt Ryan (2012) – top 6 in Year 5, not early
Carson Palmer (2005) – top 6 by Year 3 (close but not Year 2)

1990s–early 2000s

Peyton Manning (1998) – top 5 as a rookie
Kurt Warner (1999) – top 6 first season starting (Year 2 in league)
Daunte Culpepper (2000) – top 6 by Year 2

Pre-1990 examples

Dan Marino (1984) – top 6 (actually #1) in Year 2
Jim Kelly (post-USFL return) – quickly top 6
Warren Moon (similar delayed NFL path)

Now, I know we are optimistic about Shough. But, are we really THAT optimistic? Even with the year 1 he just showed, it's probably still a 1 in 50 chance of him being that kind of player.