Penalty Stats

I posted in another thread about penalties, but I decided to make a new thread to go into a bit more detail.

If you watch the games, a lot of us get the feeling that the refs and the league are "out to get us". But if you look at the total penalty statistics, the Saints may be on the high side but the pure numbers don't jump out at you as nefarious.

Total Penalties
Jacksonville 129
Tampa Bay 122
Cleveland 118
Oakland 118
New Orleans 117
Atlanta 114
N.Y. Jets 113
Arizona 113
Buffalo 112
Detroit 109
LA Rams 108
Houston 106
Pittsburgh 105
Washington 104
Seattle 104
Baltimore 103
Kansas City 102
Denver 101
Chicago 100
Dallas 99
San Francisco 97
LA Chargers 95
Tennessee 94
Philadelphia 93
Cincinnati 90
Minnesota 90
Green Bay 89
Miami 88
New England 88
N.Y. Giants 86
Carolina 82
Indianapolis 75

Mean 102
StDev 12.6

The least penalized team is 2.1 standard deviations below the mean, and the most penalized team is also 2.1 standard deviations above the mean. Nothing here indicates foul play. Some teams just commit more penalties than others.


Now, obviously not all penalties are created equal. Problem is it is very difficult to estimate the impact each penalty has on the game. But if we just want to try to determine if the games are being manipulated, we need to single out certain types of penalties that are subject to manipulation. That is, the penalties that are often judgement calls, and that could be flagged on nearly every play if close enough attention is paid. These would be offensive and defensive holding, offensive and defending pass interference, and hands to the face.

Judgement Calls - Per Game
New Orleans 5.40
Jacksonville 4.80
Kansas City 4.73
Miami 4.73
N.Y. Jets 4.33
Minnesota 4.57
Denver 4.20
Oakland 4.20
Detroit 4.13
Washington 4.00
Tampa Bay 3.93
Atlanta 3.80
Pittsburgh 3.73
N.Y. Giants 3.67
LA Chargers 3.60
Seattle 3.60
Chicago 3.53
Indianapolis 3.53
Cleveland 3.47
Tennessee 3.47
New England 3.33
Philadelphia 3.27
Baltimore 3.20
Houston 3.20
Buffalo 3.13
Dallas 3.07
San Francisco 2.93
Arizona 2.87
LA Rams 2.87
Green Bay 2.93
Cincinnati 2.27
Carolina 2.07

Mean 3.64
StDev 0.74

The least penalized team by these 5 penalty types is 2.1 standard deviations below the mean. This is expected given the total penalty stats. The most penalized team by these 5 penalty types, excluding the Saints, is 1.57 standard deviations above the mean. This is also well within reason given the total stats. What may stand out is that the Saints are penalized in these 5 penalties much more often than anyone else. The Saints are 2.38 standard deviations above the mean in these penalties that are subject to manipulation.

Now, the penalty figures for the Saints are not absurdly high. They are not high enough to be an obvious example of manipulation, but they are certainly high enough to raise an eyebrow. We might get a clearer picture of what is going on if we could combine this data with the game situation at the time of the penalty.

But as it stands, this data is IMO enough to make me feel that there is an agenda in the NFL.