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re: Why is the tank off?

Posted on 3/11/14 at 7:24 am to
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 7:24 am to
The great Howard Beck on the myth of tanking

LINK
Posted by Hammond Tiger Fan
Hammond
Member since Oct 2007
16220 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 8:46 am to
quote:

Benson's moronic win-now football mentality doesn't translate to rebuilding an NBA franchise and is the reason we're strapped with an unbalanced roster, little depth, and next to no cap space. O and almost certainly no first round pick this year.


Pretty much my arguement as well.
Posted by SouthMSReb
Member since Dec 2013
4424 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 9:05 am to
quote:

Holiday is a top PG in the league.


PGs better than Holiday:

Paul
Curry
Rondo
Dragic
Lillard
Westbrook
Wall
Parker

Arguably better:
Lowrey
Irving
Bledsoe
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61577 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 9:24 am to
Eric Gordon is the reason we're strapped with an unbalanced roster. I like the Holiday/Tyreke backcourt combo. Plenty of size, ball handling, and scoring ability. You can either acquire players when they are available, or put the rebuild on hold until you unload Eric Gordon and hope that a similar level of talent is available then.

I understand why people think a $35 million backcourt is a bad idea. I don't understand why people can't see this team is a Gordon dump or optout away from getting the pieces they need to be very good very soon.
Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
9822 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 9:39 am to
quote:

I understand why people think a $35 million backcourt is a bad idea. I don't understand why people can't see this team is a Gordon dump or optout away from getting the pieces they need to be very good very soon.


I think a lot of people on here have just accepted that Gordon isn't going anywhere. He has been on the block for over a year and there haven't been any credible rumors on him in a long time. I think we are just stuck with that group for a little bit. We just got to hope they turn it around or learn how to mesh somehow..
Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
9822 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 9:48 am to
I don't know if all those guys are better or just as good or whatever. But one guy you overlooked is Ty Lawson. Guy is having a really great year for a horrible team.. 18.6/9.0/3.5/1.5..
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 10:06 am to
quote:

Paul(yes)
Curry(yes)
Rondo(better assist/steals but jrues a much better scorer)
Dragic(Jrue is 4 years younger and is a better defender)
Lillard(same age and jrue is a better defender/passer)
Westbrook(yes)
Wall(yes but not by a whole lot)
Parker(yes)



quote:

Arguably better:
Lowrey(Jrue is 4/5 years younger so i'd rather him)
Irving(see wall)
Bledsoe(his injury might screw things up)

Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 10:13 am to
quote:

Benson's moronic win-now football mentality doesn't translate to rebuilding an NBA franchise and is the reason we're strapped with an unbalanced roster, little depth, and next to no cap space.


Unbalanced roster will be balanced just fine with EG gone.

Roberts/Rivers/Morrow/Babbitt/Ryno/Ajinca(when we get a new starting C) is solid depth. Better than what most teams have on their bench.

Smiht/Steam/and possibly roberts are all gone next year which will free up 7 Mil

EG gone will add at least 7-12(hopefully we get back a decent SF or sign one with the cash)

O the 13th pick sounds grand!
Posted by VOR
Member since Apr 2009
63651 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 11:09 am to
quote:

I think a lot of people on here have just accepted that Gordon isn't going anywhere. He has been on the block for over a year and there haven't been any credible rumors on him in a long time. I think we are just stuck with that group for a little bit. We just got to hope they turn it around or learn how to mesh somehow..



I still think Gordon will be more tradeable than people believe beginning this next offseason. We may not get much back other than a better contract situation and flexibility, but that's cool.
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15292 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

I don't understand why people can't see this team is a Gordon dump or optout away from getting the pieces they need to be very good very soon.


The problem is assuming that you can get any value for Gordon (or even not take a shite contract in return) and/or he opts out.
This post was edited on 3/11/14 at 2:00 pm
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61577 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 3:00 pm to
quote:

The problem is assuming that you can get any value for Gordon (or even not take a shite contract in return) and/or he opts out.


When AD gets his extension we'll only have AD, Holiday, Tyreke, Rivers and a Ryno cap hold on the books. If you dump Rivers (maybe bring him back with the cap room exception) you'd have enough cap space to go after a $10 - $12 million starter. It's far from ideal, but if the goal is to add another $10 millionish player to the mix they can do it.

There's also the question of is the goal to add another $10 millionish player to the mix. That seems pretty unsustainable unless everyone else are on minimum or rookie deals. A better strategy might be adding slowly with the MLE.

Offseason of 2016 with Gordon off the books

Davis $17
Holiday $11
Ryno $10.6 (25% raise)
Tyreke $10.2
Ariza $5.5 (2014 MLE)
Koufos $5.1 (2015 MLE)
SF or Post scorer $5 (2016 MLE)
Rivers $4.2
Morrow $2.2 (2014 BAE)
2015 1st $1.5
Ajinca $1.2
Withey $1.2
Pierre Jackson $1.2
2016 1st $1.2

This is a pretty complete and balanced roster but it also would probably be slightly over the tax threshold, which makes me think adding another $10 millionish player to the mix may not be part of the plan. If it's not part of the plan, then the MLE should be in the salary range of the players we would be targeting anyway, we just can't fill both the 3 and 5 holes in the same offseason.
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15292 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 3:04 pm to
quote:

When AD gets his extension we'll only have AD, Holiday, Tyreke, Rivers and a Ryno cap hold on the books. If you dump Rivers (maybe bring him back with the cap room exception) you'd have enough cap space to go after a $10 - $12 million starter. It's far from ideal, but if the goal is to add another $10 millionish player to the mix they can do it.

There's also the question of is the goal to add another $10 millionish player to the mix. That seems pretty unsustainable unless everyone else are on minimum or rookie deals. A better strategy might be adding slowly with the MLE.

Offseason of 2016 with Gordon off the books

Davis $17
Holiday $11
Ryno $10.6 (25% raise)
Tyreke $10.2
Ariza $5.5 (2014 MLE)
Koufos $5.1 (2015 MLE)
SF or Post scorer $5 (2016 MLE)
Rivers $4.2
Morrow $2.2 (2014 BAE)
2015 1st $1.5
Ajinca $1.2
Withey $1.2
Pierre Jackson $1.2
2016 1st $1.2

This is a pretty complete and balanced roster but it also would probably be slightly over the tax threshold, which makes me think adding another $10 millionish player to the mix may not be part of the plan. If it's not part of the plan, then the MLE should be in the salary range of the players we would be targeting anyway, we just can't fill both the 3 and 5 holes in the same offseason.



I think that's probably more likely than just offloading Gordon. Now, with that said, what do you think his value will be at that point? As much as some may hate the idea, if we can resign him to a reasonable deal, it may be worth bringing him back.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61577 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 3:10 pm to
quote:

what do you think his value will be at that point?


I don't know. Last year there were quite a few similar players on the market, Monta Ellis, KMart, OJ Mayo, and the going rate was around $7-$8 million. But this offseason there will be a very low supply of starting caliber SGs so I wonder if we'll see the price go up again. And IIRC, in 2015 I think Marcus Thornton may be one of the more notable SGs (which might be a reason for Gordon to opt out). If Gordon comes out in a year of limited supply he could get over paid again.

Even if the price is right I think you'd have to choose between Gordon and Rivers. If Rivers improves on his areas of weaknesses I'd go with Rivers for half the price in a heartbeat. If he's still shooting FTs in the mid 60% and not finishing at the rim...
This post was edited on 3/11/14 at 3:11 pm
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 4:25 pm to
ATL thoughts on this? (My math might be a bit off)

Assuming we keep EG

Smiht/Roberts/Steam/AFA off the books(We'd be at 47 Mil) I'll assume cap is at 62ish MIL

Roster:
Jrue/Rivers
EG/Morrow
Tyreke/Babbit/Miller
AD/Ryno
Ajinca/Withey

Sign someone like Gortat or maybe Hawes for 7-8 Mil

Sign a 3 to start(If they indeed decide to keep tyreke on the bench)

Someone like Ariza to a 4 year 25 Mil deal(similar to what webster/korver got)

That'd put us at 59ish MIL with:

Jrue/Rivers
EG/Morrow
Ariza/Tyreke/Babbit
AD/Ryno/Withey
Gortat/Ajinca

That's a pretty complete team and if we got rid EG so much the better.




Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61577 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 4:37 pm to
quote:

Assuming we keep EG

Smiht/Roberts/Steam/AFA off the books(We'd be at 47 Mil)


I think you're leaving someone out. Gordon/Tyreke/Holiday/Ryno/Davis/Rivers, renounce rights to everyone else, include minimum roster holds to get the roster up to 11 = $55.6 million

Gordon $14,898,958
Evans $11,265,416
Holiday $10,404,495
Anderson $8,491,500
Davis $5,607,240
Rivers $2,439,840
PJ $507,336
$507,336
$507,336
$507,336
$507,336

Total $55,644,129


This post was edited on 3/11/14 at 4:40 pm
Posted by Spitting Venom
Member since Sep 2013
1110 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 5:03 pm to
The tax level is around $71 million. Without signing guys to MLE contracts would we be able to add any non-minimum contracts this summer?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we could just go out and sign Gortat or Hawes to an $8 million contract without moving Gordon or another big salary, because it would put us over the $58 million mark.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61577 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 8:25 pm to
quote:

The tax level is around $71 million.


This season. I've seen projections of the salary cap as high as $62 million, and the luxury tax threshold would likely have a similar rise.

quote:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we could just go out and sign Gortat or Hawes to an $8 million contract without moving Gordon or another big salary, because it would put us over the $58 million mark.


You are correct. Loslobos calculated we'd be at $47 million with Gordon, but I calculated $55 million which wouldn't be enough cap space to sign anyone. It's either move Gordon or be limited to the MLE.
This post was edited on 3/11/14 at 8:26 pm
Posted by Spitting Venom
Member since Sep 2013
1110 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 8:50 pm to
quote:

$62 million

Do you really think it could be this high? I'm sure there is some serious number crunching behind it, but just from looking at the trend of salary cap changes from year to year I think that jump would be too large.

Posted by Colonel Flagg
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
22817 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 8:52 pm to
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we took another massive step forward with a healthy roster and the MLE used on a solid defensive big.

Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61577 posts
Posted on 3/11/14 at 9:15 pm to
It's all speculation from journalists. The league is doing well, but people thought the cap would go up this season too and it didn't.
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