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What are the chances?

Posted on 2/13/19 at 11:59 am
Posted by LlyodChristmas
The Abandoned Jazzland
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 11:59 am
We get a top 5 pick in the draft (figure to be either Zion, RJ, Morant, Reddish, Bol, Langford, Nassir) and also end up with a combo of Tatum, Horford, Smart, and/or Brown?

Posted by different arse
'Merica
Member since Apr 2014
4299 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:01 pm to
3/50
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
38653 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:01 pm to
between three and three-fifty
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
9933 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

We get a top 5 pick in the draft (figure to be either Zion, RJ, Morant, Reddish, Bol, Langford, Nassir) and also end up with a combo of Tatum, Horford, Smart, and/or Brown?


We can't get 5, but we currently have a 26% chance of landing a top 4 pick. Highest we can get is 37% of top 4 with 26% or 32% being most likely.
Posted by LlyodChristmas
The Abandoned Jazzland
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

We can't get 5, but we currently have a 26% chance of landing a top 4 pick. Highest we can get is 37% of top 4 with 26% or 32% being most likely.

What keeps us from getting 5? I figure it has to do with some weird protected rights rule.
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
9933 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

What keeps us from getting 5? I figure it has to do with some weird protected rights rule.



Lottery is only for 1-4 and we can't realistically catch the teams currently siting 1-5 in the loss column.
Posted by Macintosh504
Leveraging Salaries University
Member since Sep 2011
52530 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:13 pm to
At this point about a 29% chance
Posted by SCLSUMuddogs
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2010
6858 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:20 pm to
It is possible that we finish with the 5th worst record which would give us over a 30% chance at a top 3 pick. It is also possible that the Knicks will won the lottery.

With that, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we end up with Zion and RJ; plus someone like Knox, other picks
Posted by Ryan3232
Valet driver for TD staff
Member since Dec 2008
25787 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:23 pm to
quote:

between three and three-fifty

tree and fid
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
9933 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

It is possible that we finish with the 5th worst record which would give us over a 30% chance at a top 3 pick


We do have 2 games left vs the Hawks, but they are 5 games up on us in the loss column with 25 games left. They have been playing better and have the following games left: PELSx2, CHIx2, NYK, PHX, MEM.

We could catch them, but we play PHX 3 times, ATL twice, and Lakers 3 times.
Posted by hsfolk
Member since Sep 2009
18537 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:35 pm to
I'd rather have 2 picks inside the top 5
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166136 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:40 pm to
20%
Posted by DJ3K
Member since Dec 2011
6742 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 12:48 pm to
69%

Posted by Wes225
Member since Jan 2017
727 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

We can't get 5, but we currently have a 26% chance of landing a top 4 pick.

Why can't we get the 5th pick but can get a top 4 pick?
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
11861 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

Why can't we get the 5th pick but can get a top 4 pick?
Because only the top 4 are determined by the ping pong balls. After that, teams are slotted by record.
Posted by SoFresh
New Orleans
Member since May 2010
3068 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

I'd rather have 2 picks inside the top 5


I'd rather have Tatum over any player in this draft aside from Zion, and that's even somewhat of a tossup.
Posted by SoFresh
New Orleans
Member since May 2010
3068 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 1:23 pm to
Posted by LlyodChristmas
The Abandoned Jazzland
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

Because only the top 4 are determined by the ping pong balls. After that, teams are slotted by record.


Ah I guess this was apart of the change to the lottery system.
Looking at the standings rn its Knicks, Suns, Cavs, Bulls, Hawks, Grizz, Pels. With a big difference between us (25-33) and the Bulls (13-44) for that fourth spot. Clearly we have some work to do and need things to fall into place if we want to end up in that top 4 position
Posted by SCLSUMuddogs
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2010
6858 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 3:44 pm to
quote:

We do have 2 games left vs the Hawks, but they are 5 games up on us in the loss column with 25 games left. They have been playing better and have the following games left: PELSx2, CHIx2, NYK, PHX, MEM.

We could catch them, but we play PHX 3 times, ATL twice, and Lakers 3 times.


Yeah, it would take a lot of performances like last night. For sure it's not likely, but the fact that having 2 of the top 3 is possible is a fun outcome to think about. I don't think they'd be a playoff team or anything right away, but they'd be really fun to watch
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 2/13/19 at 3:54 pm to
At best the pels will get 7

Memphis wants to keep losing and keep their pick

Washington has no reason to win either but pels could match or pass their futility

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