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re: Simmons: “Top 5 Dumbest Trades of this decade”
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:52 am to TeamCKennedy
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:52 am to TeamCKennedy
quote:
Bad take right now. If Queen becomes the next Jokic then who cares what we gave up. We have to see how he turns out.
I think the best we can hope for is Naz Reid
2
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:55 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
If a person makes a -EV decision on a bet and ultimately gets lucky and wins the bet, is that still a good decision?
How are people downvoting this lol. There’s clearly no answer to it because their logic makes zero sense lol.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 8:59 am to Fun Bunch
it was an absolutely retarded trade. you can't play devils advocate in that situation when we know we have a shot at lottery next year.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:00 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
If a person makes a -EV decision on a bet and ultimately gets lucky and wins the bet, is that still a good decision?
Its not a "bet."
It is a decision based on a lifetime of basketball knowledge and player evaluation. I guess that's the rub in this argument. I don't see the draft as a bet. I believe some people are better at player evaluation than others. Nobody is perfect, of course. Sometimes you're right. Sometimes you are wrong. But its not a bet.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:05 am to SCLSUMuddogs
quote:
I think the best we can hope for is Naz Reid
He's better than Naz. My question is will he develop an outside shot comparable to Naz.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:09 am to CP3forMVP
I do find it a bit humorous that the Grizzlies trade a 2028 first rounder and two seconds, all to jump only five spots and get Coward. No guarantee that unprotected Magic firsts isn’t better than ours next year.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:23 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
How many different variables that occurred AFTER the trade that had no direct relationship to the trade/decision affected the eventual outcome of that trade?
I realize that but as much as I don't like the trade we just made, currently it isn't one of the 5 worst trades of the decade. You have to judge the trade on how it plays out. If the kid is a bust and the Bucks end up in the lottery then it's a disaster. If the kid ends up being good and the bucks have a surprising season and that pick ends up being a later first then it's not even remotely one of the worst trades.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:25 am to AOC4PREZ2028
quote:
Its not a "bet."
It's the same decision-making process and in many ways is a "bet".
quote:
I believe some people are better at player evaluation than others.
And I don't think there is any statistical evidence of this take.
Even then, assuming you're 100% correct, it's still a bet and evaluation. You just have insider information to hedge your % a bit towards higher EV. The question/scenario is still in play.
If a person makes a -EV decision on a bet and ultimately gets lucky and wins the bet, is that still a good decision?
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:25 am to higgsBoson
quote:
How are people downvoting this lol. There’s clearly no answer to it because their logic makes zero sense lol.
It's a combination of hopium-fueled fandom and the romance/mythology of sports that people still cling to.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:26 am to Fun Bunch
End this shite. Sell and move the fricking team
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:28 am to iwyLSUiwy
quote:
I realize that
quote:
You have to judge the trade on how it plays out.
Those same post-decision variables affect this decision.
To take it to morbid extremity, Queen could die today. Does that make his selection bad? The trade worse? Of course not because it has nothing to do with the decision itself. It's an unlikely outlier scenario that swings the ultimate values drastically in hindsight.
It's like arguing Zion was a bad pick at #1. Insane in terms of objective decision analysis, but "logical" with hindsight.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:30 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
, Danilo Gallinari, three unprotected first-round picks in 2022, 2024, and 2026, two first-round picks from the Heat in 2021 and 2023, and two first-round pick swaps in 2023 and 2025 for Paul George
quote:
crazy hindsight bias.
True, but in hindsight, this was an INSANELY BAD deal!
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:30 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
, Danilo Gallinari, three unprotected first-round picks in 2022, 2024, and 2026, two first-round picks from the Heat in 2021 and 2023, and two first-round pick swaps in 2023 and 2025 for Paul George
quote:
crazy hindsight bias.
True, but in hindsight, this was an INSANELY BAD deal!
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:31 am to SCLSUMuddogs
PS, I can't believe this wasn't AT LEAST top-4 protected!
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:32 am to Fun Bunch
Wow thats fricking dumb smh but were likely gonna pick around 12-16 ish anyway next season.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:46 am to SlowFlowPro
We just disagree that the NBA draft is just a series of bets.
FWIW, as of now, I think the trade was GM malpractice. But if Queen ends up being a star and the pick ends up being in the teens, then I will admit that my initial opinion was incorrect.
Joe Dumars knows so much more about basketball that you, me, Bill Simmons & Nick Wright. So we shall see. But I readily admit it don't look good right now.
FWIW, as of now, I think the trade was GM malpractice. But if Queen ends up being a star and the pick ends up being in the teens, then I will admit that my initial opinion was incorrect.
Joe Dumars knows so much more about basketball that you, me, Bill Simmons & Nick Wright. So we shall see. But I readily admit it don't look good right now.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:48 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
There isn't a lot of data to show that teams are actually good at evaluating players in the way that y'all are describing. This is more of a myth and romance of sports that we're finding out isn't really true in the age of data and analytics.
The way to draft well is to accumulate a ton of draft picks and have them land at the top of drafts with elite talent or just pick so many players that you end up on the right side of variance eventually.
Both the Saints and Pels refuse to do this. It shows.
!00% whole heartedly agree with this.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:49 am to AOC4PREZ2028
quote:
Joe Dumars knows so much more about basketball that you, me, Bill Simmons
I would be money if NBA teams had to pick between the 2 Simmons would have the decisive lead
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:51 am to SlowFlowPro
I honestly don't even know what you're trying to argue at this point.
I guess the Paul George trade was a good trade for the Clippers. The trade that set them back and won OKC a championship.
I guess the Paul George trade was a good trade for the Clippers. The trade that set them back and won OKC a championship.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:56 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I would be money if NBA teams had to pick between the 2 Simmons would have the decisive lead
That is a "bet" I would take.
Simmons is a tool. Dumars built from the ground up a team that made it to six straight ECF appearances. Bill Simmons masturbates to Beverly Hills 90210 and makes jokes from his couch.
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