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re: Pels get the #1 pick, who would you want to draft?

Posted on 5/2/22 at 1:42 pm to
Posted by PrayingMantis
Member since Jul 2013
1251 posts
Posted on 5/2/22 at 1:42 pm to
Then speed lineup. Alvarado CJ BI Herb Zion
Posted by Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
12646 posts
Posted on 5/2/22 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

Holmgren can make close to 8 figures a year right now playing college ball. It's less than 40 games a year and he would be the face of the sport, a megastar. It is the dream of tons of players.


I dont think this is true, but even if it was the long-term economics still say go.

The goal in the NBA is the second contract, then the third, then the potential fourth.

Chet staying four years means right when he would be about to be signing his first major extension he would be starting out on a rookie scale contract.

It's not simply the 10 million next year you are replacing, it's the 3 year deferment of the additional contracts you can sign in the NBA. And that's before talking about injuries and possibly not landing #1 in subsequent drafts.

Even if you assume Chet doesn't get a second contract max, You are talking about Chet essentially forfeiting 50 to 80 million dollars to stay in college three more years. Starting your second NBA contract at 27 as opposed to 24. Chet's third contract being on the other side of 30 as opposed to being in his prime of mid to late 20's.
This post was edited on 5/2/22 at 1:44 pm
Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
10802 posts
Posted on 5/2/22 at 2:13 pm to
I'm not arguing he will make more money if he leaves. I get that. But he would get a lot to stay. He can sign a shoe deal, apparel and everything else. He would be the star of the sport and its more than half the work/commitment. It is a sweet deal and has long lasting ramifications.

I just think it's a mistake. He's not ready. He would be so much better off staying and I don't think he loses that much. I believe it would set him up better for the future. Just my opinion though..
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
28641 posts
Posted on 5/2/22 at 2:20 pm to
quote:

So rebounding doesn't exist anymore? Sealing on the block doesn't exist anymore?




Are you really trying to argue that Draymond or Steven Adams is going to punish someone offensively enough to the point where you have to take that player out?

quote:

If Chet is on the floor teams are going to get him matched up on their most physical players. You literally see that every single night in the league.



how's that any different than any other player on the floor? That's like saying if CJ is out there, Denver will find a way to get Jokic one on one with him. That's not what's happening. I wouldn't worry about his post defense, it's the perimeter defense. Can he play decent enough defense against Steph, Morant, Luka, Lillard, etc.
Posted by CP3forMVP
Member since Nov 2010
15511 posts
Posted on 5/2/22 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

I wouldn't worry about his post defense, it's the perimeter defense. Can he play decent enough defense against Steph, Morant, Luka, Lillard, etc.


This is the entire point though. You should be worried about the post. A lot of his blocks and contests came as a help defender, but he was very vulnerable in the post. Guys were able to get into his body, get him off balance, and negate the things he was good at. He was also prone to giving up OReb's because he was out muscled. Finishing possessions was an issue. As a help defender he's great, but when he's physically matched up with someone he often did not come out ahead. Again, this was in the WCC. NBA teams are going to attack him a ton from there. There was not much to suggest he will be able to come out and consistently defend NBA guards on the perimeter. There were some encouraging signs, but there were also some very unencouraging things as well. So couple the questionable interior post defense, and the questionable ability to defend on the wing, what are we talking about here?

People like to bring up Mobley, but he's not Mobley. He's going to be a major work in progress in the NBA defensively.
Posted by Eman5805
West Bank
Member since Nov 2010
5098 posts
Posted on 5/2/22 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

Jabari is generational, easy pick

The generational player this year is Shaedon Sharpe. But we haven’t seen him play yet so…
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
28641 posts
Posted on 5/2/22 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

People like to bring up Mobley, but he's not Mobley. He's going to be a major work in progress in the NBA defensively.



you are correct. Mobley is 20lbs heavier. Hell even Durant was 20+lbs heavier coming out of college, but KD also has put on an additional 20lbs since coming in the league. Alot of "skinny" guys were still around 215lbs, like KG and AD, as well as the two just mentioned. KG, AD and KD all put on another 20lbs eventually.

Chet at 195lbs and 7' is really really skinny, and i'd say very weak. He's the same exact size as that Poku kid that was drafted by OKC, and he looks like he walked out a POW camp he's so skinny and fragile.

I think the risk with Chet is that he never adds enough weight to be stronger. If he stays under 200lbs, he's going to have a tough time in the NBA. He needs to get to about 215lbs, which i think is doable, but even at 215lbs, he still couldn't come close to guarding Embiid or Jokic, or even JV.
It just seems very unlikely he could play the 5 at any point if there is a legit 5 he'd have to guard.



Just did a search, currently the only player in the NBA that is over 6'10" and under 200lbs is Poku.
searching at over 6'10" and under 225lb you get a few more players.
Nerlens Noel is at 220 now, came in the league at 205.
Kai Jones, Jaxson, Jalen Smith, Nic Claxton are all around 215-220 as well, as well as MPJ although he's playing SF/PF, not PF/C. Also, that's the weight they came into the league at for the most part, and none of those guys can play the 5 defensively against the Jokic/Embiid's of the world.





and by the way, i think i just talked myself out of wanting Chet altogheter.
This post was edited on 5/2/22 at 5:58 pm
Posted by Earthquake
USA
Member since Nov 2007
990 posts
Posted on 5/2/22 at 4:41 pm to
I would trade back to four, and pick Ivey
Posted by SoFresh
New Orleans
Member since May 2010
3069 posts
Posted on 5/4/22 at 3:18 pm to
Chet will put on weight in the NBA. It may take 2-3 seasons like AD, but it will happen. I'm sure he's already put on some since the college season ended.

I don't think you can pass on Chet at #1. His fit is just too good for the Pels from an offensive standpoint (will contribute in plenty of ways other than scoring) and is already a very good perimeter defender as well as shot blocker. Once he puts on weight he'll have potential to be one of the best frontcourt defenders in the league.

A long-term core of BI, ZW and CH would have the Pels contending for a decade.
Posted by Kerchek
Member since Oct 2021
585 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 1:24 pm to
Mind blowing you can consider Shapre generational without ever watching him play vs decent competition.
Posted by Dinky Mulberry
Member since Aug 2021
2156 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 1:48 pm to
quote:

I don't think you can pass on Chet at #1. His fit is just too good for the Pels from an offensive standpoint (will contribute in plenty of ways other than scoring) and is already a very good perimeter defender as well as shot blocker


It should be Chet, and it's not close. Like you say, perfect fit. Get him down there and get him hooked on them beignet thangs y'all got down there in NO. He'll be 230 by Christmas. Seriously...I WANT CHET !!
Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
10802 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

would trade back to four, and pick Ivey


The more I think about this, the more I like it. We would get back a massive haul to move back, especially from someone like OKC, who has to get a top 2 pick. Ivey fills our biggest need IMO. We have no guard depth behind McCollum, at least none that could play major minutes when/if McCollum is out. Plus gives us the ability to go smaller/faster.

Say we are 1, Detroit 2, Orlando 3 and OKC 4. OKC offers us 4, #12 pick, 2 future 1sts for the #1 pick. Would that be enough?
Posted by SoFresh
New Orleans
Member since May 2010
3069 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 2:12 pm to
for real get him on that zion diet
Posted by SoFresh
New Orleans
Member since May 2010
3069 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 2:15 pm to
We shouldn't be trying to move back. We currently have a deep, young and talented roster with plenty of picks in future drafts.

We need to do what we can to add quality, not quantity
Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
10802 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

We shouldn't be trying to move back. We currently have a deep, young and talented roster with plenty of picks in future drafts.



We aren't that deep. We only went 9 deep in the playoffs, that was playing Hayes and Graham good minutes. They can be upgraded or replaced.

Ivey has star potential and is unique in this class. There isn't another lead type guard close to him in terms of talent. If we wouldn't trade back, I'd just draft him 1st..
Posted by Dinky Mulberry
Member since Aug 2021
2156 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

for real get him on that zion diet


For the Pels, there's only ONE guy who COULD be a true "difference maker" in this draft & send us over the top. And from what I've seen of him, he's about 7'3" tall and weighs 168 lbs and has a 14' wingspan !!

I didn't come here hopin' to see the Pels finish 4th in the West & maybe make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. The "cheese" is out there...if we have the guts to go after it. So, we can either get very lucky with a ping pong ball...OR...trade our 8 pick (or whatever it ends up being) and/or whatever else it takes...and I mean WHATEVER else it takes...if you get my drift...and get Chet down to NO !!
This post was edited on 5/5/22 at 2:42 pm
Posted by SoFresh
New Orleans
Member since May 2010
3069 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 2:46 pm to
Playoff rotations are typically 8-9 guys. We actually played 10 guys regularly against the Suns and we didn't even have Zion. So I'd say we're pretty deep.

Sure Hayes, Graham and Marshall can use upgrades, but we have plenty of picks already. It's going to be a challenge to try and develop all of those picks along with the youth on our roster as it is and there will be casualties. I'd rather try and develop less, more talented players vs. more, less talented players.


But sure. I do agree that if you actually have Ivey #1 on your board then you'd likely take Chet #1 and trade him to whichever team takes Ivey to stack assets for future trades. Because everyone else will have Chet higher on their board than Ivey. That's guaranteed.
This post was edited on 5/5/22 at 2:49 pm
Posted by hometownhero89
Center of the Earth
Member since Aug 2007
1802 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

Holmgren can make close to 8 figures a year right now playing college ball. It's less than 40 games a year and he would be the face of the sport, a megastar. It is the dream of tons of players.


, man what an L of a take. The logic is backward and unrealistic. One injury changes that, this is so high risk for a young player who is an NBA prospect and makes zero sense. As you stated it's a dream and hence why it isn't realistic in any way.

quote:

College is a better life and a better atmosphere to be successful for him. It's not the most money. But that 2nd contract, that everyone says he should chase, is not guaranteed. He can easily make 20M over the next 3 years at Gonzaga (win a ring and a bunch of awards). Then he is still a lock 1st rounder. That's what I would do if I were him. Build a legacy.



An NBA title is a world championship and where legacies are cemented. Not in the NCAA. This is the equivalent of telling a rising star that they should stay in the minors and build their legacy there instead of the pros.

One injury ends your entire fallacy and it's why the league is lowering the age for NBA players. Young healthy players are depreciating assets. I don't know what vacuum chamber of reality you're placing this fallacy in, but it's definitely not a realistic one.
Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
10802 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 2:59 pm to
I'm not going to rehash it. It's my personal opinion. I've read articles since and Holmgren has no desire to stay and never thought about it. So I agree he's not staying and that was never going to happen.

I just think it's a mistake and he would be better off staying. I want both the legacy of being a legendary college player, then a great pro player. Guys like Duncan, Grant Hill, the Mannings, Burrow..

College basketball matters to me though. I think it's an awesome experience and unrivaled now that they get paid. I don't get why anybody would pick to play in the NBA over college ball. Especially when you aren't physically ready to be a contributor. Guys shouldn't be thinking about career earnings or injuries at 19 and 20 years old. It's sad they are forced to grow up so quick..
Posted by hometownhero89
Center of the Earth
Member since Aug 2007
1802 posts
Posted on 5/5/22 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

I just think it's a mistake and he would be better off staying. I want both the legacy of being a legendary college player, then a great pro player.


What you want for them is irrelevant. Everything you listed is the worst idea for the player's future and destructive to building anything resembling a legacy. This is why you are called a bad fan. You value your personal opinion over what is actually best for the individual in this situation.

quote:

I don't get why anybody would pick to play in the NBA over college ball. Especially when you aren't physically ready to be a contributor. Guys shouldn't be thinking about career earnings or injuries at 19 and 20 years old. It's sad they are forced to grow up so quick..


I took your emotional appeal out of the quote because it's also irrelevant. The players choose to go there because it's the world stage for the sport they play in.


You say you have all this care and concern for the future of these players you have takes on, but your mentality is closer to that of Kathy Bates from Misery than it is a fan of the sport.

How is the player going to take their game to the next level to get to the pros while staying in fricking college?

It's better for the player to let the pro team take the risk on their ceiling than to stay longer in college and risk injuries. Only the athlete is holding the bag on their future with your suggestions. The logic you applied to this is moronic and lacks any reason except what your own personal desires are.

Money and injuries are the only things that matter when your athletic talent is the asset. Sorry reality happens and some of us have to make adult decisions quicker than others. The point of diminishing returns is a thing and it is on the earlier end of life for an athlete. For a self-proclaimed value assessor ad stat man, i don't see how your emotions got in the way of this. Less soy helps.

quote:

I'm not going to rehash it. It's my personal opinion.


We're happy to hear. Keep the laughs coming. Just don't expect other posters to not ridicule the majority of your opinions because they are without reason. Pels Talk might just have their own OweO after all. Given that you didn't get the sonic reference the other day, i assume that this joke will be lost on you.
This post was edited on 5/5/22 at 3:31 pm
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