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Pelicans Offseason Preview (The Athletic)

Posted on 7/19/21 at 9:33 am
Posted by hendersonshands
Univ. of Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Member since Oct 2007
160104 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 9:33 am
I know a lot of you poors don't have a subscription...

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quote:

The Pelicans plan on beginning this process by hiring Phoenix Suns assistant Willie Green as their next head coach in the near future, per league sources. After firing head coaches in each of the last two offseasons, VP of basketball operations David Griffin hopes Green can be the right voice to guide a young team going into next season with playoff expectations.

Even if Green ends up having a tremendous influence on this team, there won’t be a major improvement on last year’s 31-41 record without some serious upgrades to the roster in a few important places.

With that in mind, The Athletic’s Pelicans beat writer, Will Guillory, teamed up with draft expert Sam Vecenie to outline what New Orleans’ summer may end up looking like. Guillory is responsible for the first two sections, on the Pelicans’ immediate goals and the roster profile around Williamson. Vecenie broke down New Orleans’ salary-cap situation, free-agent options and profiled seven potential selections with the No. 10 pick in the NBA Draft.



quote:

What goals are the Pelicans trying to achieve this offseason?


They’ve (almost) locked down who will be the head coach next season, a crucial step in this process. The Green deal may not be done yet, but the expectation is he’ll be able to step in and be a much more influential presence in the locker room, as a former player with championship experience during his brief tenure as an assistant coach.

Green is known for developing strong relationships with players, and he’s played a crucial part in the Suns’ transformation into one of the most consistent defensive units around the league this season. With all the instability New Orleans has dealt with in the coaching ranks recently, finding someone who can hold that seat down and execute their vision over the long term would go a long way in making stars like Zion and Brandon Ingram feel a bit more comfortable with their situation.

As far as on-court improvements, the Pelicans need a few more 3-point shooting threats surrounding the stars on the team, and at least one more defensive-minded presence on the perimeter to put more pressure on opposing guards. The Pels were a bottom-five 3-point-shooting team last year despite having the most dominant paint scorer in the entire league. That has to improve immediately.



quote:

Who are the true building blocks for the Pelicans next to Zion, and are we sure those guys are the right fits next to such a unique talent?


Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams are two veterans who were brought in to fill in the holes as essential role players last season, and they both ended up having fairly disappointing seasons. Sources say there’s an expectation that at least one of them will be on the move this offseason, with hopes of adding more depth to the roster. It’s unclear how much New Orleans would be willing to give up to make sure a trade happens involving either one of them. As tough as it may be to move some of these pieces around, I would be completely floored if the Pels try to roll out the same starting five next season.


Posted by hendersonshands
Univ. of Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Member since Oct 2007
160104 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 9:33 am to
quote:

But here’s the thing: if the Pelicans really wanted to blow up their core around Zion/Ingram, they can do it somewhat easily. Which is why, Will, it’s so interesting to hear you say that “at least one of Adams or Bledsoe” is expected to be on the move. That could actually change this outlook substantially. It’s funny: I thought Bledsoe had a much worse season than Adams. He was a disaster for the Pelicans given his price point, in my opinion. Legitimately, I’ve been wondering if there is a chance the team could waive and stretch him, given that he has a low non-guaranteed portion of his contract in 2022-23. If they went that route, they’d open up about $14 million in additional cap space, and he would cost the team about $4.4 million on their cap sheet over the next five years. They shouldn’t just stretch him for no reason. But if they were able to get into the mix for an extremely high-level free agent, I wonder if it would make some sense.

Adams, I thought, was pretty good at his end of the defensive scheme that Stan Van Gundy wanted to run. But the problem is, if I was moving one of Adams or Bledsoe, I think it would be Adams because his deal is for the extra year and I really do not like the long-term fit of he and Zion. They need to find a center who can protect the rim and space the floor a bit. Adams has no chance to do the latter. There are real choices to be made on that front by the Pelicans this summer. For instance, if the team really wanted to move Adams, I would bet the Hornets might have some real interest in taking him into their cap space given their hole at the center position.

Let’s just go down this pathway, shall we? Say the Pelicans find a home for Adams into a team’s cap space, and then stretch Bledsoe. That opens up approximately $30 million in cap space for New Orleans. Basically, they could get up to around $45 million-plus in cap space if they find a real player in free agency willing to come to New Orleans. They absolutely should not make those calls until they know that they can get the guys they’re looking for in free agency. But the Pelicans should be genuine players at the max level, offering just about anyone who fits with their core. Even if they wanted to re-sign Ball at something like a four-year, $80 million contract, the team could still have around $25 million in space in this scenario.

Who are some of the free agents I’d target in New Orleans’ position? I’d certainly look into Spencer Dinwiddie as an option. His ball-screen creativity would be terrific with this core. I’d at least make calls to Kyle Lowry and Mike Conley, too, although I’m skeptical the latter will be leaving Utah and that the former will want to go to a potential non-playoff team.

Lauri Markkanen also is intriguing as a restricted free agent given his shooting ability, although I’m skeptical of a defensive frontcourt of Zion, Ingram and Markkanen. The better option, in that vein, might be another Bull in Daniel Theis. Theis is more of a theoretical shooter than a real one, but he at least takes 3s on top of being a strong defensive center who could likely be had as a legitimate starting option in the vicinity of $10 million per year. Given the option of paying Theis $10 million or Adams $17 million, I’d probably choose Theis. Tim Hardaway Jr. will likely be expensive, but he’s the kind of shooter who would space the floor for Williamson. The same can be said for Evan Fournier. A smart, lower-cost (but not much lower) option could be Doug McDermott, who is coming off of a career season and has settled in as a strong floor-spacer.

Another low-cost option I’d look at if I was New Orleans: Zach Collins. Portland has to make a relatively large qualifying offer to retain his restricted free agency rights, and I’m skeptical they’ll do so. The Athletic’s Jason Quick reported the Blazers will not tender a qualifying offer at $7 million, making Collins an unrestricted free agent. Should Collins hit unrestricted free agency, he has a real shot to be a valuable player for the Pelicans due to his size on the interior at 7-foot and his potential to shoot it. He just needs to stay healthy. I’d be willing to give him something in the vein of a three-year, $25 million deal with the third year as a team option to find out if he can do it, largely because I think it’s harder to find these 7-foot floor spacers who can be legitimate rim protectors next to Zion than you’d think. I would also be willing to give Alex Caruso a similar-sized deal, given how effective he’s proven he can be as a connecting role player who defends at a high level — but I’d only do that if the team decides to let Ball walk in free agency.
Posted by hendersonshands
Univ. of Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Member since Oct 2007
160104 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 9:34 am to
quote:

NBA Draft big board


The Pelicans have a loaded draft slate ahead, with picks at No. 10, 35, 40 and 53. Under David Griffin, I don’t know that there is necessarily a real standout quality that the Pelicans have looked for. They have tended to draft younger players, with all of Williamson, Hayes, Lewis and Louzada being teenagers at the time they were selected. That lines up with a lot of the players who will be on the board at No. 10.

Moses Moody, Arkansas: Moody is my top option for the Pelicans. He’d be the perfect pick for what they need, and what they’ve valued in recent years in regard to age and upside. Why? He’s 6-foot-6 with a near-7-foot wingspan. He’s a legitimate shot-maker and a switchable defender, which is something every team is looking for. He hit about 37 percent from 3 this past year as the top option on Arkansas, meaning he had very few open shots. If he falls to No. 10, I wouldn’t think twice about getting to the podium for him. He fills the need with shooting and defense.

Franz Wagner, Michigan: Wagner is a terrific defender in a team concept, and does a great job on the ball against a variety of different players. He’s really smart and makes high-level decisions as a passer. He’d be a really strong fit next to Williamson and Ingram on defense. And while he’s not a completely consistent shooter yet, I would anticipate he gets there. Another shooting-and-defense player here for the Pelicans, and he fits the youth demographic that they’ve tended to draft.

James Bouknight, Connecticut: Bouknight would be more of the shot-creator profile as opposed to the shooter variety, although I do think he will be an effective shooter at some point in his career. He has a bit more offensive upside than the guys ranked ahead of him, although doesn’t necessarily bring the defensive upside that they do. I’d be a fan of this pick, but not an enormous fan, as I think there are better players that would work around Zion on the board.

Alperen Sengun, Besiktas: The Pelicans just took Jaxson Hayes last year, and still have Adams on the roster. But Sengun is different than both of those guys as an elite-level producer overseas in Turkey. He’s coming off of having won the Turkish League MVP, which is a staggering accomplishment for a teenager given how strong that league is. I think at some point he’ll shoot well from long distance, although he doesn’t quite tick the defensive box that I think New Orleans would be looking for.

Chris Duarte, Oregon, Corey Kispert, Gonzaga: Two plug-and-play shooters. Duarte is a 6-foot-6 combo guard who would really fit from a scheme perspective. He’s good on defense and hits 40-plus percent of his 3s. That’s just an easy fit. In the case of Kispert, he has a case as the best shooter in the class, which is a weapon that the Pelicans desperately need. Both would work, even if they’d be slight reaches talent-wise at 10.

Josh Giddey, Adelaide: Giddey isn’t a great shooter, and doesn’t defend yet. However, he was incredibly productive at a young age in Australia this past season, averaging 11 points, seven rebounds and seven assists (with the assists number leading the pro league as a teenager). Again, I don’t think he fills enough of what the team is looking for in a Zion Williamson complement, but he’s worth mentioning due to his high feel for the game and positional size on the perimeter.

Jaden Springer, Tennessee: If the Pelicans go off the board, this would be my bet. Springer is extremely young and was very productive on a per-minute basis. He’s a terrific defender at the point of attack and would pair nicely with either Alexander-Walker or Lewis in the backcourt. It’s a bit early for him for my liking, but not that early. It wouldn’t stun me if they like him.

Best realistic case outcome: Moody. I actually really hope this happens on draft night. It would be one of my favorite selections of the evening.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115868 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 9:39 am to
Some actual interesting stuff there. I would have some interest in Theis for around the MLE. Collins scares the heck out of me with his crazy amount of injuries.

I would absolutely hate it if we stretched Bledsoe unless we are doing it to get back a REAL difference maker. Not freaking Dinwiddie but a real dude. It just seems shortsighted to have 4.4 mill on the books for 5 years when you could just hold onto him throughout the season hoping someone will give value for an expiring and then be done with him.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61506 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 9:45 am to
I think you absolutely have to ship Bledsoe out (but do not stretch him). He was brought in for veteran leadership and publicly admitted he wasn't even trying. Maybe Willie Green can get him on board, but I wouldn't bet on it.

As for picks, I really want to trade back to 16 and have one of Kispert/Duarte still be on the board. Not sure how realistic that is, but dumping Bledsoe, drafting one of those 2, while picking up either 18 or a future 1st is probably about as good as draft night can go if there isn't a blockbuster trade.
This post was edited on 7/19/21 at 9:46 am
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115868 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 9:52 am to
I really just do not think stretching Bled is necessary. Green and Bledsoe are friends if I recall correctly so the absolute worst case scenario is no one will take him and you go into the season hoping Green can get through to him.

I mean, sure, if we are looking at getting a true difference maker max/near max guy, ok stretch Bled and move Adams into space. A Miami Heat-like move.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25564 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:02 am to
I know i've thrown out some scenarios where we create cap space to sign Conley, but there really isn't much out there for us to really go after in FA that we can't acquire via S&T. Our best moves this offseason will be via trades and the draft imo, and then making sure we do what is necessary to be able to use the full MLE.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
32473 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:11 am to
quote:

I think you absolutely have to ship Bledsoe out (but do not stretch him). He was brought in for veteran leadership and publicly admitted he wasn't even trying. Maybe Willie Green can get him on board, but I wouldn't bet on it.

As for picks, I really want to trade back to 16 and have one of Kispert/Duarte still be on the board. Not sure how realistic that is, but dumping Bledsoe, drafting one of those 2, while picking up either 18 or a future 1st is probably about as good as draft night can go if there isn't a blockbuster trade.
I really don't see the point in using an asset to move off of Bledsoe, unless it's part of a bigger deal where we're bringing in a better player. Moving from 10 to 16, just to get off of Bledsoe accomplishes what exactly? Frees up a bit of cap space? Who are we signing with that space?
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115868 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:14 am to
I think the point would be just to get rid of him and have him off the roster, while still having relatively good picks.

But yeah, my goal would be 10+Bledsoe (and whatever else) to acquire a better player.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25564 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:23 am to
quote:

I really don't see the point in using an asset to move off of Bledsoe, unless it's part of a bigger deal where we're bringing in a better player. Moving from 10 to 16, just to get off of Bledsoe accomplishes what exactly? Frees up a bit of cap space? Who are we signing with that space?



it's not that it frees up cap space, it frees up salary so we can comfortably stay under the tax and use the full MLE, like we didn't get to do this past year.
There's obviously a lot of scenarios that can play out, but maybe that's one of them where he needs to be moved just so we can use the full MLE. would you rather #10 and Bledsoe, or #16/$18/MLE, assuming that was a real scenario? I've played around with the trade machine and the salaries to know it may be the case.


and i think there will be guys we are interested in at 16, that we would take at 10, like Moody or Kispert.
After the first 6 picks, there's really no telling who's going where. There's mocks that have guys like Wagner, Kispert, Moody, Mitchell, Sengun, Giddey, Zaire, Jalen Johnson going anywhere from 8 to 18
How may of those guys would you be happy with? What if you got to get two of them? Or even just getting 1 and then getting someone like Duarte, or even Cam Thomas or Primo?
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61506 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:24 am to
quote:

just to get off of Bledsoe accomplishes what exactly?


Takes the guy that lead the team in not trying and puts him in someone else's locker room. I'm not interested in 10 for just 16 and dumping Bledsoe. But if you can get 10 for 16 + 18 while dumping Bledsoe, I like that move.
Posted by Mulkey Man
Member since Apr 2021
19403 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:26 am to
Won't Collins be out for much of next season?
Posted by saints5021
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
17480 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:29 am to
Those FA options are the definition of MEH
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115868 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:31 am to
Yeah that wasn't my ideal offseason I will tell you that.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115868 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:39 am to
One of the more interesting things in this is the thought of sending Adams into, say, Charlotte's space.

Is that something you guys would do without having to give up major assets for them to do it, and not getting anything back?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422561 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:41 am to
quote:

Those FA options are the definition of MEH


Why I like re-signing Zo (even if an overpay) and getting Sexton (if it's like for the 10th pick). Having both opens up options for trades next year that we may not have if we sign the wrong guy this year.
Posted by hendersonshands
Univ. of Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Member since Oct 2007
160104 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:41 am to
Depends on what you use the cap space for. Theis and a bench shooter instead of Adams? Sure.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61506 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:41 am to
You’re still going to need someone to bang with the bigger centers. I’d keep Adams unless you have a cheaper bruiser lined up or you need his salary to make a bigger deal work.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25564 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:43 am to
Phoenix traded 16 and and expected non lottery 1st 2 years out (Miami's 2021 1st) to move up to 10 in 2019 to draft Bridges, just to give some perspective on 10's value.


#15/#20 were traded by Portland in 2018 to move up to #10 for Zach Collins.

So i'd think getting #16 and #18 for #10 is pretty fair value, but not sure OKC would also take on Bledsoe too.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25564 posts
Posted on 7/19/21 at 10:52 am to
quote:

One of the more interesting things in this is the thought of sending Adams into, say, Charlotte's space.

Is that something you guys would do without having to give up major assets for them to do it, and not getting anything back?



I agree.
Something wasnt' mentioned, i didn't read the whole article, is Hayes future on this team. I am under the impression that Hayes is ready to start and be our 5. I haven't really entertained the idea of Myles Turner or anyone in FA playing the 5 b/c i expect Hayes to be the starter and be a good one. We still need a big body 5, but i think you can find that in FA for cheap. K'hem Birch had a great little stint in Toronto to close the season out (and he's canadian), but he'll probably get a 2 or 3 year deal around $6M/yr. He's not huge, but he has been a great rim protector and rebounder. He's not going to stop Jokic or Emiid, but he can at least match physicality of guys like Nurkic and Valanciunas.
Hayes/Birch/Billy would be a decent rotation at the 5 if that's what we started the season with, and then find a backup 4 that is a legit 3 point shooter.
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