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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 40% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:22 am to TigerinATL
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:22 am to TigerinATL
I would agree he looks better defensively, but his defensive rating is higher than it's ever been, and we routinely get scorched by the opposing teams best perimeter player.
Like i said, i think he's a good defender, but he's not good enough to be the best perimeter defender on a good team.
Like i said, i think he's a good defender, but he's not good enough to be the best perimeter defender on a good team.
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Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:26 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
he was 2-8 after the 1st quarter yesterday 0-3 in the 4th, but he finished with 16 (14 in the 1st half) on 3-6 shooting from 3 so box score watchers loved his game last night.
32% from 3 in the 4th quarters this year, 38% from the field.
Yeah that seems about right. It just feels like he does all of his damage early and then disappears offensively, which is the meme for this team as well.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:30 am to TigerinATL
He has the highest +/- on the team as well as the best drtg along with Hart outside of Adams for players with significant minutes. Both these guys guard the best perimeter players on the opposing teams. Ball stats backs up your eye test.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:33 am to supe12sta12z
The question is, what does he need to do to go from good defender to lock down defender. I really feel getting more physical is where he needs to go, which might require putting on a little more muscle. He's not skinny, but he could be bigger.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:34 am to NOSHAU
quote:
how can you say he is so limited offensively?
Because he is? Roughly 65% of his shots come from three. The majority of which are catch and shoot generated by someone else.
He’s only shooting 40% on half court driving layups, of which he averages just one a game. He’s not particularly great in running the PnR. Which he does too infrequently as well. And while his efficiency in ISO situations isn’t terrible, we both know it’s not a strength of core component of his game.
I don’t get the Harris comparison, not saying he’s worth that contract, he’s not, but he’s a legit 20-8 guy that can score at all three levels, with an elite three point shot on high volume and high contest rates. But Bogdanovic is a cautionary tale, if anything, for me. I think Lonzo is going to get an offer in the 20-25 million range, and that puts you in the awkward position of having to match a guy on the hopes he will eventually live up to his overpay. Possibly in a city he is going to not really want to be in, which could create it’s own challenges.
In Jrue’s case it happened eventually, but every other example we have cautions against doing that: Asik, Evans, Gordon, Hill.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:39 am to supe12sta12z
quote:
He has the highest +/- on the team as well as the best drtg along with Hart outside of Adams for players with significant minutes. Both these guys guard the best perimeter players on the opposing teams. Ball stats backs up your eye test.
we have the 2nd worst defensive rating in the league, so saying he has the best drtg on the team pretty much proves that his defense isn't that good. I don't think that means he's not a good defender, just that he's not capable of lifting our defensive rating. Our opponenets offensive rating pretty much stays the same whether he's in or out. 117.5 when he's on the court, a slightly worst 116.3 when he's off the court, so we are actually slightly better when he's off from a defensive standpoint.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:42 am to TigerinATL
quote:
The question is, what does he need to do to go from good defender to lock down defender. I really feel getting more physical is where he needs to go, which might require putting on a little more muscle. He's not skinny, but he could be bigger.
the same has been said about him driving to the goal. It'll never matter b/c he has no idea how to use the size advantage he already has over most players. He's just not an aggressive player when it comes to using his physical strength. He's a finesse player, always has been, always will be. You can watch Josh Hart out there and see that he is exerting all of his strength at times trying to stop someone from gaining position on him. Lonzo never does that.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:46 am to TigerinATL
He's never going to be a shutdown defender. That's extremely rare in today's league and even great defenders today gets lit up from time to time. His defense will highlight itself more once this team is able to play complimentary defense. It's virtually impossible with Bledsoe as he is awful on defense and has the highest drtg on the team after Redick. You saw what good defense looked like when Hart was on the court with him. Bledsoe has really hampered our perimeter defense and there's no way to get around that unless they bench him for Hart.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:51 am to TeddyPadillac
That's most likely because we sub Hart in when he's off the court so that we can have a good perimeter defender on the court at all times.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:56 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
we have the 2nd worst defensive rating in the league, so saying he has the best drtg on the team pretty much proves that his defense isn't that good. I don't think that means he's not a good defender, just that he's not capable of lifting our defensive rating. Our opponenets offensive rating pretty much stays the same whether he's in or out. 117.5 when he's on the court, a slightly worst 116.3 when he's off the court, so we are actually slightly better when he's off from a defensive standpoint.
I mean Jrue should have shown anyone that you can have an all defensive level defender and not have a good defense. One player can’t guard 5 positions.
Fact is though, when you look at things like Cleaning the Glass’s advanced metrics, Lonzo is statistically our 3rd best defender after Adams and Hart. Currently in the 68th percentile in on/off points per 100 possessions and opponent efg, and typically Lonzo is going to be guarding the opposing teams best perimeter guard every night.
Problem is that after those three, Ingram is basically break even and everyone else on the team goes from bad to downright terrible.
We basically have three plus defenders on this roster and everyone else is pretty bad.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:56 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
This is my biggest issue with him currently.
People will see that he had 17 points and was 4/5 from deep and say "wow" he was great.
The Problem will often be he was 4/4 in the 1st quarter and then didn't make another the rest of the game. At least that's what it feels like.
So like 98% of NBA players
Such a ridiculous critique for a 23 year old, third scoring option on a team
We expect Ball to shoot well from 3, score consistently, finish efficiently at the rim, get to the line in bunches and hit free throws, and create for others. Give effort on D. Just realize that’s a $35 mil a year player
This newfound role that has been discovered in February seeks to be working well. He’s adapted and improved, just like every season of his young career. The obsession of “ will he be worth it?” Is nauseating. Like y’all don’t realize by how every contact carries risk. Or that maybe you are just wrong about a player? Hmmm
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:58 am to GynoSandberg
He's playing well. You would like to see his production spread out through the game instead of disappearing for 3 quarters. I don't think that's a hot take or something crazy.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 11:05 am to Fun Bunch
quote:Except that he doesn't disappear for 3 quarters. Some cannot look at the entire game, but only the scoring. The steals, assists, blocks, defense, do not seem to matter if it does not show up in the scoring column evenly distributed throughout all 4 quarters. That is the hot take.
He's playing well. You would like to see his production spread out through the game instead of disappearing for 3 quarters. I don't think that's a hot take or something crazy.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 11:12 am to supe12sta12z
I know defense is more about the team than an individual, and our team defense sucks. Bledsoe was supposed to be a great defender, Jrue level, and he's simply is not. It is a travesty that Jrue made 2nd team all defense in 2019 while Bledsoe was 1st team, and Bledsoe made 2nd team last year while Jrue was left off. Jrue is 10x's the defender Bledsoe is. I think Jrue is the best defender in the league.
I think Lonzo can be a member of a good defensive team, matter of fact, i think players like him are crucial to have in order to be a good defensive team, but he can't be your best perimeter defender. He has never shown the ability to slow down the opposing teams best player, especially late in games. I'm not expecting that to happen every possession, but he generally does a poor job of keeping his man out of the paint late in games, even when there is no pick involved. I would much rather see Hart on the opposing teams best player late in games than Lonzo. Luka, Lillard, CP3, Mitchell, Fox, all those guys did whatever they wanted offensively against us.
How often has the best player from the opposing team surpassed his ppg average for the year against us? With Jrue, we generally held that guy in check. We just saw Lavine/Luka/Lillard drop 40+ on us recently. D'Aron Fox would be the MVP of the league if all he did was play the Pelicans, averaging 41 and 12 in the two games we played them. Donovan Mitchel score 36 and 28 against us, he's averaging 24ppg this year. Beal scored 47. Again, i know it's a team game, but if you're the best defender, you have to take more pride in what you do, adn that means making sure you are guarding that best player more often than not, fighting through screens.
I think Lonzo can be a member of a good defensive team, matter of fact, i think players like him are crucial to have in order to be a good defensive team, but he can't be your best perimeter defender. He has never shown the ability to slow down the opposing teams best player, especially late in games. I'm not expecting that to happen every possession, but he generally does a poor job of keeping his man out of the paint late in games, even when there is no pick involved. I would much rather see Hart on the opposing teams best player late in games than Lonzo. Luka, Lillard, CP3, Mitchell, Fox, all those guys did whatever they wanted offensively against us.
How often has the best player from the opposing team surpassed his ppg average for the year against us? With Jrue, we generally held that guy in check. We just saw Lavine/Luka/Lillard drop 40+ on us recently. D'Aron Fox would be the MVP of the league if all he did was play the Pelicans, averaging 41 and 12 in the two games we played them. Donovan Mitchel score 36 and 28 against us, he's averaging 24ppg this year. Beal scored 47. Again, i know it's a team game, but if you're the best defender, you have to take more pride in what you do, adn that means making sure you are guarding that best player more often than not, fighting through screens.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 11:13 am to Fun Bunch
You don’t think expecting 4 quarters of linear production from a 23 year old, 3rd option isn’t crazy 
What about the rest of the team? Zion and Ingram are two of the highest usage guys in the league. Bledsoe and NAW are launching when they touch it.
A handful of the best players in the league don’t struggle to find consistency. It’s why they are the best
The goal posts for Bunzo keep moving. He starts doing something well and y’all want more. If we get rid of him and a new third option emerges, guess what, it’ll be the same type of guy
What about the rest of the team? Zion and Ingram are two of the highest usage guys in the league. Bledsoe and NAW are launching when they touch it.
A handful of the best players in the league don’t struggle to find consistency. It’s why they are the best
The goal posts for Bunzo keep moving. He starts doing something well and y’all want more. If we get rid of him and a new third option emerges, guess what, it’ll be the same type of guy
Posted on 2/22/21 at 11:14 am to NOSHAU
quote:
steals, assists, blocks, defense
Do you have stats for these stats per quarter this year? I'd like to see them. (something like DBPM for defense perhaps).
Posted on 2/22/21 at 11:16 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Last 12 games Lonzo Ball is averaging 16/5/5 on 62.1% TS in a off ball role.
46/46/87 shooting splits on 8 3PT attempts per game.
quote:
Lonzo Ball ranks 14 in Real Plus-Minus which puts him at 6th place for PG's.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 11:18 am to NOSHAU
quote:
Except that he doesn't disappear for 3 quarters. Some cannot look at the entire game, but only the scoring. The steals, assists, blocks, defense, do not seem to matter if it does not show up in the scoring column evenly distributed throughout all 4 quarters. That is the hot take.
The game matters the most in the 4th quarter in the regular season. It's the most indicative measurement we can look at to judge how a player would look in the playoffs as well, as teams will generally play hard defense for much more than the normal 8 minutes a game they do in the regular season.
I don't care that he doesn't score much in the 4th. That is supposed to be Zion/BI time. What i don't like is that he's our 3rd option to score on this team, and he's simply not capable of that role b/c he's not a creator of offense, he's a catch and shoot guy and that's all. That isn't his fault, we need to find that 3rd guy.
One thing i have really liked about his games recently is him penetrating the paint. I know he isn't intending to get to the rim to score, but him simply penetrating is creating open looks for other guys on the perimeter. He far too often just sits outside the 3 point line with zero movement inside it most offensive possessions, which makes our offense extremely stagnant.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 11:21 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
You don’t think expecting 4 quarters of linear production from a 23 year old, 3rd option isn’t crazy
I expect everyone's stats to get a bit worst in the 4th quarter. that's not a knock on Lonzo.
quote:
. If we get rid of him and a new third option emerges, guess what, it’ll be the same type of guy
And if that's the case, we'll continue not winning many games. If we want to compete, we need a legit 3rd scoring option, and Lonzo isn't that guy, but he can still be a great complimentary player to this team.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 11:21 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
Do you have stats for these stats per quarter this year? I'd like to see them. (something like DBPM for defense perhaps).
I'd like to see this too. The thought that he's not clutch or a "crunch time" player isn't far fetched at all. It's very true when it comes to his scoring, and his assist numbers aren't high enough to say that he's creating for others. He had 1 point during the 25 point comeback yesterday. I'm not saying he's worthless, just not worth $20M per year.
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