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GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
7177 posts
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re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
I think that the odds are high that either the Lakers or the Bucks fall off a cliff by the time that their later picks and swaps come up.

Either Giannis tears up his knee, or he requests a trade, or LeBron retires, and we end up with some really good picks. I think that the pick swaps are very valuable, because I expect us to be a top ten team by then.

We have a lot of assets of unknown worth, but there's a good chance that some of them end up worth a lot.

[Edit: ATL's post below this one is good.]
This post was edited on 11/25 at 6:42 pm


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TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
53777 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
quote:

pretty risky on the back end


I feel having Milwaukee plus the Lakers picks lessens that risk some. The worst case scenario is that you have a pick in the teens and a pick in the 20s every year during the Zion era. You can use the picks for cheap depth or bundle them to move up a little if someone you like falls.

Best case scenario (besides AD and Giannis leaving) is that by getting Milwaukees future drafts you just doubled your odds that some time in the next 7 years one of 2 top heavy contenders will have an event like the Warriors just experienced happen to them.



Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
3180 posts
 Online 

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
Again this is all relatively speaking in regards to the other proposed options. It’s more risky relative to those, but a much higher upside.

In either the supposed Boston or the Atlanta situation you know what you are getting: a solid vet after a rebound year(Hayward), picks that could have gotten you Kira, Nesmith, and a couple firsts to trade for Adams and in a future draft. Atlanta you get Huerter + 6 and I’m guessing some future assets. Bucks you get a 30 year old regressing guard + a back up guard. BUT you get some intriguing future assets that could be anywhere from top ten to basically second rounders.

If you know today those picks all become picks between 26-30. Do you do this trade still over the others? You probably don’t. But if at least one of them becomes a top 5-10 in a good draft, it’s probably the best deal easily.





Epic Cajun
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
23007 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
IMO, the Celtics deal has the least long term potential, because in that deal I’m assuming we’re trading the late Boston picks for Adams, and therefore the only long term potential we have is whoever we pick at 14. Short term we’re also stuck without a starting PG, or we’re stuck starting Lonzo without another facilitating guard. So we get 1 shot at long term potential, and a starting lineup that may be more talented, but had a worse fit.

In the Atlanta trade we’re looking at more long term potential than the Boston trade because we get a young wing (Huerter) that is a good long term piece, and we get another crack at a long term piece with the 6th pick. But if we’re dead set on Adams, we have to also trade away some of our long term potential to land him (assuming 1 pick or our 13).

We kinda know what the rumor was with Denver, so if we’re looking at Harris, Barton, and let’s even give them the benefit of doubt that they’ll include 2 future picks, we’re looking at more short term gain (still staring at the issue at PG), but as far as long term potential we’re only looking at 1 future pick (still assuming we move 1 for Adams somehow).

Can’t really speculate on what was offered by Dallas, as there weren’t really any leaks there.

ETA: you’re only looking at the picks as picks, and not as future assets. The Bucks picks can be used in a trade before it’s even known where they fall, which would mitigate some of the risk.
This post was edited on 11/25 at 7:19 pm


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
3180 posts
 Online 

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
In the Boston scenario you likely pick Kira + Nesmith + Hayward and trade for Adams. Maybe get a future first or two.

That very well may be the best trade depending on how Nesmith turns out. Cementing an 8 player rotation that could theoretically swap roles as certain guys age and others come of age(or if Lonzo isn’t the right fit). Starting Lonzo and Hayward with Ingram, Zion and Adams. A bench of Kira and Nesmith. As Hayward and Adams age they take a more Iggy/Bogut type role as Hayes/Nesmith and Kira step into the starting lineup based on what we do with Lonzo.

Atlanta you maybe take Killian over Kira and draft Nesmith at 14 plus get some protected future pick.

As to future assets that all is relative as well. If Giannis signs the super max tomorrow the value on those picks drops. While the value of packaging proven commodities like Huerter do not.

If Giannis doesn’t or skips town before that last pick, you executed a coup and might be looking at a top 5 pick as you are contending. That’s 70’s era super team craziness. If he doesn’t it’s still not a bad deal, but it might not be the best deal if those other rumors are accurate.




This post was edited on 11/25 at 7:34 pm


TotesMcGotes
Virginia Fan
New York, New York
Member since Mar 2009
25396 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
quote:

If Atlanta was willing to throw in Reddish

Hard pass.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
3180 posts
 Online 

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
I take it the last time you watched Reddish was in college?

Not the guy that finished the last quarter of the season shooting 49% from the field, 40% from three, averaging 16 points and 4 rebounds while showing a tenacious dedication on defense?

I hated Reddish coming out but there is going to need to be a lot more crow being served if people are going to try and maintain this posture going forward


Pelefraan 1
Member since Jan 2018
3821 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
quote:

In the Boston scenario you likely pick Kira + Nesmith + Hayward and trade for Adams. Maybe get a future first or two.

That very well may be the best trade depending on how Nesmith turns out. Cementing an 8 player rotation that could theoretically swap roles as certain guys age and others come of age(or if Lonzo isn’t the right fit). Starting Lonzo and Hayward with Ingram, Zion and Adams. A bench of Kira and Nesmith. As Hayward and Adams age they take a more Iggy/Bogut type role as Hayes/Nesmith and Kira step into the starting lineup based on what we do with Lonzo.

Atlanta you maybe take Killian over Kira and draft Nesmith at 14 plus get some protected future pick.

As to future assets that all is relative as well. If Giannis signs the super max tomorrow the value on those picks drops. While the value of packaging proven commodities like Huerter do not.

If Giannis doesn’t or skips town before that last pick, you executed a coup and might be looking at a top 5 pick as you are contending. That’s 70’s era super team craziness. If he doesn’t it’s still not a bad deal, but it might not be the best deal if those other rumors are accurate.


The Bogey deal falling apart makes it much less likely for him to sign for 5 years than than if it went through

Helped us a lot

Also, lol at that guy who would pass on Reddish

This post was edited on 11/25 at 8:07 pm


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TotesMcGotes
Virginia Fan
New York, New York
Member since Mar 2009
25396 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
quote:

I take it the last time you watched Reddish was in college?

Not the guy that finished the last quarter of the season shooting 49% from the field, 40% from three, averaging 16 points and 4 rebounds while showing a tenacious dedication on defense?

I hated Reddish coming out but there is going to need to be a lot more crow being served if people are going to try and maintain this posture going forward


Cam Reddish was a great rookie defender and mediocre at best on offense. Maybe he figures it all out, but I doubt it happens before he’s 25, if at all. So why would we want him now?


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Epic Cajun
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
23007 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
quote:

Maybe get a future first or two.


I don’t think they are trading 3 first plus more in the future (no speculation that is was more than the picks this year plus Hayward). Again with a deal like this you are only getting the asset of the current pick, your future flexibility is taken away.

quote:

If Giannis signs the super max tomorrow the value on those picks drops.


Even if he does, the chances are good that he’s still out by 2027

As far as Atlanta goes, I’m assuming the deal was only 6 plus Huerter, and no future picks. I’ve never seen speculation that it was more than that.

The deal we took has the best chance of giving us current value, and future flexibility.

Sure, the 6th pick in this draft could turn into a superstar and we could end up looking foolish, but the likelihood of that isn’t very high.


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Chalkywhite84
New Orleans Saints Fan
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
9253 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
Kept telling everyone it would be a bidding war

Ole lester earl wanted us to take 2 average players from the nuggets


Chalkywhite84
New Orleans Saints Fan
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
9253 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
You wouldve had to pay Hayward a shite load.
Same as paying jrue


Pelefraan 1
Member since Jan 2018
3821 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
The Boston deal is typical Ainge, thinking his pu pu platter is a desirable and filling meal

The Billy King deal warped his mind, thinking every deal would be like that for him
This post was edited on 11/25 at 10:36 pm


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Townedrunkard
Member since Jan 2019
1801 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
quote:

Taking the Celtics 3 picks in this weak draft would have been borderline dumb, that’s not even appealing to me


It’s why they were trying like hell to package all three to move in top 10 and got shut down. Not sure how Hayward would get included since he was going to be a free agent.


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Townedrunkard
Member since Jan 2019
1801 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
quote:

Ole lester earl wanted us to take 2 average players from the nuggets


Don’t forget the late first pick included that we ended up getting from the Nuggets anyway that most claim was a throw away pick for Adams. Talk about being way off on Jrues value.....
This post was edited on 11/25 at 11:38 pm


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Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
5930 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
quote:

the Boston scenario you likely pick Kira + Nesmith + Hayward and trade for Adams


There would be no way to make the money work to trade for Adams with the Boston scenario.

Hayward was on the books for 34 million, add Adams 29 million and we would have had to send out around 52 million in salary to take both back.

That means sending out Jrue (27), JJ (13), Miller (7), and then having to S&T all 4 of Kenrich, Zylan, Josh, Frank.

So lose Jrue, JJ and take back Hayward, Adams, that makes us a worse team.

Not to mention, we would also be a taxpaying team after all that. Theres no case where the Boston trade would've been better


bonethug0180
New Orleans Saints Fan
Avondale
Member since Jul 2018
3741 posts

re: Jrue Holiday bidding war
Yeah I see no scenario where we want Hayward over Bledsoe without letting Ingram walk.

Hayward and Ingram are too damn similar, so then we would literally be playing small ball because you'd have to start both and Zion. That would mean starting Zion or Hayward full time at center. Yikes.

Not to mention that podcast SVG was on before even being hired where he basically laid out the plan for Ball to be the PG in transition, with someone else to be the PG in the half court. Seems we liked the idea enough to run with it and specifically targeted Bledsoe when we decided to move on from Jrue.

And none of this is to say Hayward is bad. He's a very good player. He just doesn't fit here with the current roster. I'd much rather have Adams over him.
This post was edited on 11/26 at 8:04 am


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