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re: Josh Hart- Sources say he would reportedly like a fresh start
Posted on 6/13/21 at 7:22 pm to shel311
Posted on 6/13/21 at 7:22 pm to shel311
TigerAtl
I wasn’t suggesting we missed out on those guys. Rather, they are players who got early run on bad teams and inevitably settled in a cheap, niche players in the league. And were better for it
sheil311
Again, what is he worth then and what tangible measures are you basing it off? Anyone can answer this. We are looking for quantifiable skills that can separate him from his peers in order to justify whatever money you think he’s worth
PER isn’t spot on when measuring guys who play 15 mpg. It would be disingenuous to suggest Willy Hernangomez was the Pels 2nd best player on the Pels based on PER. But with A guy with over 3100 minutes and 112 games of data with the Pels?
Can you point to which advanced metric is being unfair to Hart? Tell me why he isn’t a 12 PER player.
Are you actually reading and following the thread or just fussing with me? Why would I falsely attribute that quote to you in an attempt to put you down
quote:
The Pels haven't won enough to attract those kinds of players though. We do this all the time here, a few outliers show you in theory could have gotten a better deal, but that's just in theory. Demps spent years trying to catch vet minimum lightning in a bottle for both SFs and Cs and it never worked. Players that would come to the Pels cheap are just a different caliber so it's not a realistic comparison.
I wasn’t suggesting we missed out on those guys. Rather, they are players who got early run on bad teams and inevitably settled in a cheap, niche players in the league. And were better for it
sheil311
quote:
If you think Hart us worth $3.5 million max, if argue your definition of average doesn't Med with probably 99% of folks out there. Not an insult, just an obvious observation.
Again, what is he worth then and what tangible measures are you basing it off? Anyone can answer this. We are looking for quantifiable skills that can separate him from his peers in order to justify whatever money you think he’s worth
quote:
And you think PER is always spot on?
PER isn’t spot on when measuring guys who play 15 mpg. It would be disingenuous to suggest Willy Hernangomez was the Pels 2nd best player on the Pels based on PER. But with A guy with over 3100 minutes and 112 games of data with the Pels?
Can you point to which advanced metric is being unfair to Hart? Tell me why he isn’t a 12 PER player. quote:
How long you been on these boards... And simple quoting of the right person is still something you're working on figuring out?
Are you actually reading and following the thread or just fussing with me? Why would I falsely attribute that quote to you in an attempt to put you down
1
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:53 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:Exactly.
PER really doesn't capture defense much at all.
Jrue Holiday - where in his PER is he getting credit for being the best perimeter defender in the game?
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:58 pm to shel311
quote:
Not sure if I'm misreading but are you stating that you think PJ Tucker has a good bit more value than Josh Hart?
Yes, especially at that price.
Did you see pj tucker just shite down durant today.
You would take josh hart over pj tucker? Tucker would help this team much more than hart.
Initially i was just pointing out those 2 players cause they make around 8 mil.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:01 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:I already did, but...
Again, what is he worth then and what tangible measures are you basing it off? Anyone can answer this. We are looking for quantifiable skills that can separate him from his peers in order to justify whatever money you think he’s worth
Elite rebounder
Above average defender
Average efficiency as a shooter in his 2 seasons with the Pels
Those 3 things alone are going to get a guy 2-3x more than the max $3.5 million you think his value is.
quote:So more minutes makes it accurate is what you're saying. Better player this season, Jimmy Butler or Steph Curry? Capela and Valanciunas or Lebron?
PER isn’t spot on when measuring guys who play 15 mpg. It would be disingenuous to suggest Willy Hernangomez was the Pels 2nd best player on the Pels based on PER. But with A guy with over 3100 minutes and 112 games of data with the Pels?
quote:Well he is a 12 PER player but see above for reasons why he's not a below average basketball player with value more than 2x below league average.
Tell me why he isn’t a 12 PER player.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 9:03 pm to Chalkywhite84
quote:KD missed shore, Tucker doesn't shut anything down. KD was fine the 1st 3 games with Tucker playing no different than he did today.
Did you see pj tucker just shite down durant today.
quote:Of course.
You would take josh hart over pj tucker?
Posted on 6/13/21 at 10:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
PER really doesn't capture defense much at all.
There are individual defensive metrics though. Most suggest a league average defender, others would show a year over year decline since Hart entered the league
PER measures nearly every important facet of the game, I don’t sleep any better if we aren’t quantifying league average D if a guy carries a 12 and strikes out in most important metrics. I don’t think the stat is the end all be all and am willing to explore any one that shows Hart’s worth is more than I think
Posted on 6/13/21 at 10:37 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:League average defender
There are individual defensive metrics though. Most suggest a league average defender,
League average efficiency shooter, at worse very slightly below league avg
Elite rebounder for his position
Does that sound like a guy with a value of less than half of the average NBA salary?
Also, even if you took the 12 PER as gospel compared to 15 as league average, you'd still come out with him deserving more than $3.5 million based solely on those 2 PER figures and league average salary, so there's that too.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 11:32 pm to shel311
quote:
Also, even if you took the 12 PER as gospel compared to 15 as league average, you'd still come out with him deserving more than $3.5 million based solely on those 2 PER figures and league average salary, so there's that too.
I think it was a little extreme to say he's only worth 3.5mil
Realistically, its probably somewhere around 6-8mil. A player like Alec Burks, Pat Connaughton caliber player.
Remember this for comparison: Seth Curry signed 4/32 in 2019 after 3 years of proving to be a solid 3pt shooter and average defender.
Now I'm of the belief that Seth Curry head to head with Josh Hart, right now Seth is the better player. But part of paying Josh Hart 6-8mil is the hope he can become anywhere from 35-37% from 3. Outside of his rookie season, he's at 33.6 (on 4.6 attempts). That's pretty lackluster to say the least.
Posted on 6/14/21 at 8:32 am to shel311
quote:
League average defender
League average efficiency shooter, at worse very slightly below league avg
Elite rebounder for his position
Does that sound like a guy with a value of less than half of the average NBA salary?
I think it goes without saying, these traits do not carry equal value, unfortunately. The money is in the shot; check the annals of NBA contracts for the position the last decade. If you do not carry a consistent stroke as a 2/3 hybrid, if you dont get to the line, then you do not carry the luxury of carving out near 30 min a night, thus relegating you to the third guy off the bench kinda guy. So you ask yourself, what is being a versatile (regressing) defender and good rebounder worth? My value reflects that, and I will go find a guy like that for cheap (Pels did in Marshall). If WAR was a NBA stat you're looking at Hart as slightly above replacement level guy based on the numbers
If Hart wouldve even broke like 35%-36% from three this year, just show any semblance of upward trajectory with the shot, it wouldve increase his value to me 4x-5x
Posted on 6/14/21 at 8:53 am to GynoSandberg
Right. As much as I like Hart I have talked myself out of wanting him back. Defense and hustle get beat by shooting and shot creation in today’s NBA. We need shooters and offensive weapons that put pressure on the defense. The Laker model of 2 superstars surrounded my nobody else who can go get their own shot only worked in Disneyworld and lost 2 games to the Heat with Bam getting hurt in game 1
Posted on 6/14/21 at 9:04 am to PrayingMantis
I think it's worth keeping Hart around for ~10 mil just to keep the asset. I don't think that's a bad value for him at all, even though you can get similar production from a cheaper guy like Naji. If you re-sign Hart for roughly 10 mil, he could be packaged with Adams (or god forbid Bledsoe) next off season and bring back a 30+ mil contract (or contracts).
Posted on 6/14/21 at 9:07 am to Epic Cajun
There's certainly value in that if the price is right.
I think there is also value in just letting him walk if it isn't, or doing a S&T to facilitate something else.
We need to have some roster turnover this year.
I think there is also value in just letting him walk if it isn't, or doing a S&T to facilitate something else.
We need to have some roster turnover this year.
Posted on 6/14/21 at 9:20 am to Fun Bunch
quote:I agree with all of this. I wouldn't put myself in a situation where Hart's contract is no longer an asset (think more than 12 mil or so), but I think keeping him around the MLE is value that could be used in the future.
There's certainly value in that if the price is right.
I think there is also value in just letting him walk if it isn't, or doing a S&T to facilitate something else.
We need to have some roster turnover this year.
Posted on 6/14/21 at 9:37 am to GynoSandberg
quote:8th man in the rotation guys make a heck of a lot more than $3.5 million.
thus relegating you to the third guy off the bench kinda guy.
quote:More like right around average.
If WAR was a NBA stat you're looking at Hart as slightly above replacement level guy based on the numbers
Posted on 6/14/21 at 9:41 am to PrayingMantis
quote:Shooting is premium but you do need both to contend.
Right. As much as I like Hart I have talked myself out of wanting him back. Defense and hustle get beat by shooting and shot creation in today’s NBA. We need shooters and offensive weapons that put pressure on the defense
Also, we're an over the cap team. It's not like if we don't give Hart $8mil then we give that $8mil to someone else. It's Hart or no Hart.
We certainly shouldn't match a crazy overpay where his contract immediately becomes a negative value but he'd be a solid contract to have to use in a trade where we'd get to send back a decent rotation piece.
quote:It won a title, that's where you should have stopped. It worked, period. End of statement.
The Laker model of 2 superstars surrounded my nobody else who can go get their own shot only worked in Disneyworld and lost 2 games to the Heat with Bam getting hurt in game 1
Posted on 6/14/21 at 10:04 am to shel311
quote:This isn't really true. Just depends on the team make up. There are many teams where the 8th highest paid player makes 3.5 mil.
8th man in the rotation guys make a heck of a lot more than $3.5 million.
Posted on 6/14/21 at 10:34 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
There's certainly value in that if the price is right.
I think there is also value in just letting him walk if it isn't, or doing a S&T to facilitate something else.
We need to have some roster turnover this year.
I think fit is more important than value. All told, even in an overpay, it’s still going to be a small portion of cap space.
The question to me is, can this team be good enough to not have to rely on Hart for major contributions? He needs to be an ancillary piece and just be able to do what he does well as a contributor. Then you just hope he can develop his shot a bit better, and you may end having a nice piece on your hands
Posted on 6/14/21 at 10:35 am to Epic Cajun
quote:I mean, on average, obviously. Especially once you filter out rookie contract guys.
This isn't really true. Just depends on the team make up. There are many teams where the 8th highest paid player makes 3.5 mil.
Posted on 6/14/21 at 11:18 am to shel311
quote:Have you actually looked at salaries across the NBA? Some teams (mostly bad teams) will have 8th guys who make considerably more, but I only found 1 team that had their 8th highest salary as more than 8 mil. The vast majority of teams' 8th highest salary is between 3.5 and 5 mil.
I mean, on average, obviously. Especially once you filter out rookie contract guys.
ETA: I see what you're saying now, it would take way too much damn time to go through every team and attempt to determine which rookie scale players are actually higher than 8th in the rotation, thus pushing other players lower in the rotation. I still don't think it's smart to pay your 8th guy considerably more than 5ish mil.
This post was edited on 6/14/21 at 11:25 am
Posted on 6/14/21 at 11:25 am to Epic Cajun
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