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Jaylen Brown or Grizzlies Pick
Posted on 4/30/19 at 8:35 am
Posted on 4/30/19 at 8:35 am
Lets say the negotiation has gone back and forth. Ainge and Griffin have agreed on Tatum, Smart, Kings pick, filler, and Clippers pick for AD. They talk about Jaylen Brown and the Grizzlies pick. Ainge says neither, Griffin says both. They compromise and Griffin can choose one. Which one should he choose?
For those who don't know the ins and out -
Brown makes 6.5 mil next year and will be a RFA the following summer. He is eligible for an extension in the summer and for the purpose of this exercise, lets say his agent says he won't sign anything smaller than 4 years/100 million. If he doesn't get that, he will explore restricted free agency.
The Grizzlies pick (we are assuming it won't convey this year) is top 6 protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021.
Also, for the purpose of this debate, let's assume the Pels pick stayed right at #7.
For those who don't know the ins and out -
Brown makes 6.5 mil next year and will be a RFA the following summer. He is eligible for an extension in the summer and for the purpose of this exercise, lets say his agent says he won't sign anything smaller than 4 years/100 million. If he doesn't get that, he will explore restricted free agency.
The Grizzlies pick (we are assuming it won't convey this year) is top 6 protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021.
Also, for the purpose of this debate, let's assume the Pels pick stayed right at #7.
15
Posted on 4/30/19 at 8:43 am to Crewz
Grizzlies pick in a heartbeat i like the financial freedom and the ability to build assets for the future plus if were keeping jrue i dont like the fit with him and brown and smart (im assuming there all playing significant minutes based on how much there getting paid)
Posted on 4/30/19 at 8:45 am to Crewz
Grizzlies pick.
As bad as that team looks, especially with Mike Conley having a foot out the door, that appears to be a very high pick in what could be a stacked draft.
As bad as that team looks, especially with Mike Conley having a foot out the door, that appears to be a very high pick in what could be a stacked draft.
Posted on 4/30/19 at 8:47 am to kamald
I agree for the most part. My counter would be: In February - which asset do I think will have more value around the league? I think Brown will have good value. The Memphis pick should, but what if the Grizzlies are surprisingly good next year and all of a sudden that pick is looking like it will be between 12-19 and will convert in 2020. Thats a 'meh' asset now.
That would be my one fear. If you think of them as pure assets that will eventually be flipped, I think Brown has a much higher floor while Memphis pick has a higher ceiling
That would be my one fear. If you think of them as pure assets that will eventually be flipped, I think Brown has a much higher floor while Memphis pick has a higher ceiling
Posted on 4/30/19 at 8:50 am to Crewz
Isn’t 2020 supposed to be a stacked draft?
And isn’t one of the lessons people learned by watching Ainge to not have all their assets convey at once?
And isn’t one of the lessons people learned by watching Ainge to not have all their assets convey at once?
Posted on 4/30/19 at 8:52 am to Crewz
Grizz pick, but it wouldn't be a deal breaker for me.
You could probably turn Brown into something nice if you don't see him as part of the core going forward. Maybe not Grizz pick nice, but still something solid.
If the other pieces of the trade in your scenario are already agreed to, this wouldn't be something that kills the deal.
Obviously assuming in this scenario that I've seen all the offers and this one, with the agreed upon parts, is the strongest.
You could probably turn Brown into something nice if you don't see him as part of the core going forward. Maybe not Grizz pick nice, but still something solid.
If the other pieces of the trade in your scenario are already agreed to, this wouldn't be something that kills the deal.
Obviously assuming in this scenario that I've seen all the offers and this one, with the agreed upon parts, is the strongest.
Posted on 4/30/19 at 8:54 am to Crewz
You take the pick. It gives you flexibility and a VERY good asset in 2021 if it's top 5. I mean you could land Jalen green, hell or you convey the pick and a star becomes available you can trade for him.
I like brown a lot as a prospect still. Dude is still young and has a high ceiling, but once he becomes paid you're committing to him and not receiving the financial benefit of a rookie deal. That's the issue, because it feels like an accelerated rebuild already.
I like brown a lot as a prospect still. Dude is still young and has a high ceiling, but once he becomes paid you're committing to him and not receiving the financial benefit of a rookie deal. That's the issue, because it feels like an accelerated rebuild already.
Posted on 4/30/19 at 8:58 am to teke184
2020 is an okay draft. I would compare it to this year where you have 2-4 potential multiple time all stars but mostly starters and good role players. I love the 2021 draft, including Jalen Green - who will be talked about as the best prospect since Lebron when he comes out.
But again - I have seen too many times before when the assumption is that this future pick of current crappy team will be good, and then it conveys and its not good. See: The Kings this year, the Wolves pick when we had it, the Nets pick that the Cavs basically traded Kyrie for. Its far more rare that the pick conveys and is a great pick. Mostly because there will be multiple teams tanking in a season, but you know who won't be tanking? The team whose pick is being conveyed
But again - I have seen too many times before when the assumption is that this future pick of current crappy team will be good, and then it conveys and its not good. See: The Kings this year, the Wolves pick when we had it, the Nets pick that the Cavs basically traded Kyrie for. Its far more rare that the pick conveys and is a great pick. Mostly because there will be multiple teams tanking in a season, but you know who won't be tanking? The team whose pick is being conveyed
Posted on 4/30/19 at 9:02 am to Crewz
As much as I would love to see a Jrue-Smart-Brown perimeter defense for fun, the grizzlies pick is a better asset than a market rate Jaylen Brown for the Pelicans.
A potentially unprotected 2021 pick is very valuable with the new odds. Memphis isn’t a destination and cant do a quick rebuild. They also have an impatient owner who is starting to tinker.
A potentially unprotected 2021 pick is very valuable with the new odds. Memphis isn’t a destination and cant do a quick rebuild. They also have an impatient owner who is starting to tinker.
Posted on 4/30/19 at 9:14 am to Crewz
Grizzlies should convey the pick next year, honestly they probably will convey it looking at all things (being honest) and at that point brown would be the better value.
But you ask yourself, is the value for jaylen brown (at its best) enough to change your projection? What's the difference between a 8-12 2020 pick vs jaylen brown in February?
But you ask yourself, is the value for jaylen brown (at its best) enough to change your projection? What's the difference between a 8-12 2020 pick vs jaylen brown in February?
Posted on 4/30/19 at 9:16 am to NOFOX
It COULD be a better asset. I wouldn't be so bold to declare it is a better asset.
Again, I think you get the best trade value in January/February. If Grizz are 28-24 at that point, the pick doesn't have nearly as much value as Brown.
I would think the most likely outcome is that whenever that pick conveys, it will be between 9-16. Far more likely than it being a top 5 pick in 2021 or pick 6 or 7 next year.
I think Brown has more trade value than the 10th or 11th pick, even in a strong draft. I think thats the reality. But it might have more valuable, because you could find an optimistic GM who gets excited about the possibility of that pick. But I bet that the reality of that pick is that when it conveys, it won't be a great commodity.
Again, I think you get the best trade value in January/February. If Grizz are 28-24 at that point, the pick doesn't have nearly as much value as Brown.
I would think the most likely outcome is that whenever that pick conveys, it will be between 9-16. Far more likely than it being a top 5 pick in 2021 or pick 6 or 7 next year.
I think Brown has more trade value than the 10th or 11th pick, even in a strong draft. I think thats the reality. But it might have more valuable, because you could find an optimistic GM who gets excited about the possibility of that pick. But I bet that the reality of that pick is that when it conveys, it won't be a great commodity.
Posted on 4/30/19 at 9:28 am to Crewz
I agree with your assessment of the pick's likely long term value, but we see how much the league over values potential and draft picks. The past few years only desperate teams have been willing to trade 1sts at all.
To me the question is does Brown fit with Jrue and Tatum as a long term starter? If not what can I flip him for now and is that worth more than the Grizzly Pick with the assumption that the Grizz pick will be 7-10 this year or unprotected in 2021.
To me the question is does Brown fit with Jrue and Tatum as a long term starter? If not what can I flip him for now and is that worth more than the Grizzly Pick with the assumption that the Grizz pick will be 7-10 this year or unprotected in 2021.
Posted on 4/30/19 at 9:34 am to Crewz
you take brown and figure it out later
Posted on 4/30/19 at 9:34 am to TigerinATL
Agree with all of that but I think you have to be prepared to flip him in February, not now. I think there are few sellers in the summer. It's riskier to hold onto him for an eventual move but it has a much higher chance of getting a good return.
Posted on 4/30/19 at 9:41 am to Crewz
quote:Does the Memphis pick, being still unknown, have more value now as an asset to flip for a player(s) that Griffin may covet more than Brown? Effectively looking for that GM that may covet the potential of that unprotected pick?
Agree with all of that but I think you have to be prepared to flip him in February, not now. I think there are few sellers in the summer. It's riskier to hold onto him for an eventual move but it has a much higher chance of getting a good return.
Posted on 4/30/19 at 9:47 am to NOSHAU
My bet would be that Grizz pick would have more value now but by February and beyond Brown would have more value
Posted on 4/30/19 at 9:49 am to Crewz
quote:
Agree with all of that but I think you have to be prepared to flip him in February, not now. I think there are few sellers in the summer. It's riskier to hold onto him for an eventual move but it has a much higher chance of getting a good return.
I think the biggest problem with this is not necessarily the risk of injury (though that is a big concern too), but more so that establishing a culture and a lockerroom is going to be difficult when everyone knows one of the starters, a good player and friend of your new franchise player is on the block and won't be with the team past February.
Posted on 4/30/19 at 9:58 am to Crewz
quote:
It COULD be a better asset. I wouldn't be so bold to declare it is a better asset.
I said that the pick is a better asset than a market rate Brown to the Pelicans. In other words, unless you trade Brown the pick is more valuable as an asset.
With respect to trading him, the Grizzlies could be 28-24 diminishing the value of the pick, but Brown could also tear his ACL or could look much more pedestrian after leaving Boston diminishing the value of Brown.
Addding and then trading Brown could cause locker room issues like in my other post or the Pels could start out hot going 35-17 causing the FO to second guess trading Brown unless the offer is absurd.
Lots of risk either way, but based on the Grizzlies roster and how they are being managed and the fact that Memphis is one of the least desirable cities for players, I think the pick will be more valuable than Brown for our situation.
This post was edited on 4/30/19 at 10:00 am
Posted on 4/30/19 at 10:08 am to NOFOX
I wouldn't have him "on the block" as in - We are definitely trading him so give us your best offer and we have no leverage.
I would be very prepared to match/sign him in the summer and move forward with him.
You never do anything with just one path in mind. You leave yourself open to keeping Brown, to moving him immediately, to moving him in February, whatever. Same with Grizz pick.
My guess is that if these two assets are stocks, Grizz pick is slightly higher this summer, but the longer time goes, Brown rises and Grizz falls.
That's most likely IMO. But Grizz pick undoubtedly has the higher ceiling - it's all risk. And luck or lack there of will determine who is right in this debate. More so than logic, because there is good logic on both sides.
Luck.
I would be very prepared to match/sign him in the summer and move forward with him.
You never do anything with just one path in mind. You leave yourself open to keeping Brown, to moving him immediately, to moving him in February, whatever. Same with Grizz pick.
My guess is that if these two assets are stocks, Grizz pick is slightly higher this summer, but the longer time goes, Brown rises and Grizz falls.
That's most likely IMO. But Grizz pick undoubtedly has the higher ceiling - it's all risk. And luck or lack there of will determine who is right in this debate. More so than logic, because there is good logic on both sides.
Luck.
Posted on 4/30/19 at 10:08 am to Crewz
I take brown be cause i don't think that pick will be top 4.
Brown is a very good player now who teams will want if we don't want to keep him
I know the unknown is always better but I take the sure thing.
Brown is a very good player now who teams will want if we don't want to keep him
I know the unknown is always better but I take the sure thing.
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