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Is this trade for Melo realistic?
Posted on 8/5/10 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 8/5/10 at 10:47 pm
I've been taking a Hornets break but I really feel like this trade is a win-win. Can somebody let me know what they think? I'd also throw in a 1st round pick and get a 2nd back from Denver. You'd have to get 'Melo to be signed and traded or to agree to an extension under the table before you deal both DC and Thornton.
LINK
Denver gets young and way cheaper during their ownership transition, and their fans buy this trade because they just saw Cleveland, Phoenix, and Toronto get absolutely nothing for LeBron, Amare, and Bosh respectively.
My other rationale for this is that Posey is then immediately interested and hard-working again, and his contract is no longer horrible. He'd actually be a nice piece on this team. So you're essentially getting a free $6MM experienced player in this deal because as it stands he's worthless. Rationale 1B is that CP3 is a Hornet for life under this scenario.
Last point - yeah we'd be adding $4 to $6MM in payroll plus 2 other scrubs we'd have to sign to fill out the roster. But think about the extra tickets we'd sell, the (at least) 6 extra home playoff games we'd host, and that more than makes up for it. You'd have 1 year to make a run, then JR Smith and DX come off the books and you replace them cheaply using the Heat "come play for us on the cheap and win a title" plan.
Starting Lineup / Top Reserves
1. CP3/FA
2. JR Smith/Q-Pon
3. Melo/Posey/Scrub
4. West/Brakins/Scrub
5. Okafor/Birdman
LINK
Denver gets young and way cheaper during their ownership transition, and their fans buy this trade because they just saw Cleveland, Phoenix, and Toronto get absolutely nothing for LeBron, Amare, and Bosh respectively.
My other rationale for this is that Posey is then immediately interested and hard-working again, and his contract is no longer horrible. He'd actually be a nice piece on this team. So you're essentially getting a free $6MM experienced player in this deal because as it stands he's worthless. Rationale 1B is that CP3 is a Hornet for life under this scenario.
Last point - yeah we'd be adding $4 to $6MM in payroll plus 2 other scrubs we'd have to sign to fill out the roster. But think about the extra tickets we'd sell, the (at least) 6 extra home playoff games we'd host, and that more than makes up for it. You'd have 1 year to make a run, then JR Smith and DX come off the books and you replace them cheaply using the Heat "come play for us on the cheap and win a title" plan.
Starting Lineup / Top Reserves
1. CP3/FA
2. JR Smith/Q-Pon
3. Melo/Posey/Scrub
4. West/Brakins/Scrub
5. Okafor/Birdman
This post was edited on 8/5/10 at 11:00 pm
6
Posted on 8/5/10 at 10:58 pm to AlejandroInHouston
It's alot more realistic than most trades that are out there.
Posted on 8/5/10 at 11:01 pm to The Future
Thanks. I really like my point about Posey too. We're basically throwing $6.5MM away on him right now. It's like having a Maserati in your garage but not knowing how to drive it. In this trade he immediately becomes relevant again - we figure out how to drive that Maserati 
.
I know I'm being redundant but it just seems like it really works. Maybe Portland can offer a package this attractive to Denver, but they are huge rivals to the Nuggets and that wouldn't be palatable IMO. Plus Roy and Melo would be rather redundant. And Melo would actually agree under the table to sign his extension here b/c he and CP3 are BFF.
. I know I'm being redundant but it just seems like it really works. Maybe Portland can offer a package this attractive to Denver, but they are huge rivals to the Nuggets and that wouldn't be palatable IMO. Plus Roy and Melo would be rather redundant. And Melo would actually agree under the table to sign his extension here b/c he and CP3 are BFF.
This post was edited on 8/5/10 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 8/5/10 at 11:01 pm to AlejandroInHouston
I would think the ownership transition would need to be finalized in order to for the team to go back over the tax threshold.
From a value standpoint, I'd hate to give up all our assets (youth/expirings) but if it means locking up Melo and (presumably) Paul long-term then that may be what we're looking at realistically. Scott's no longer here to clash w/ JR and Birdman would be a nice athletic big off the bench. But we'd have no backup point.
Paul/filler
JR/QPon
Melo/Posey/QPon
West/Brackins
Okafor/Birdman
From a value standpoint, I'd hate to give up all our assets (youth/expirings) but if it means locking up Melo and (presumably) Paul long-term then that may be what we're looking at realistically. Scott's no longer here to clash w/ JR and Birdman would be a nice athletic big off the bench. But we'd have no backup point.
Paul/filler
JR/QPon
Melo/Posey/QPon
West/Brackins
Okafor/Birdman
Posted on 8/5/10 at 11:03 pm to Beastwood
quote:
But we'd have no backup point.
Yeah it's the "Miami" problem that Bill Simmons kept harping about - how are they going to fill out their roster without being like $50MM over the luxury tax, but guys would be clamoring to come play here and fill that spot on the cheap just like in Miami. I think it would organically take care of itself.
Posted on 8/5/10 at 11:06 pm to AlejandroInHouston
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/12/23 at 9:22 am
Posted on 8/5/10 at 11:07 pm to Beastwood
quote:
I would think the ownership transition would need to be finalized in order to for the team to go back over the tax threshold.
Really think about this. As it stands we're going to average 12,500 fans per game next season (ballpark) with not all suites sold, and only 70% of premium seats sold. Let's be optimistic and say we host 3 first round home playoff games at $2MM gate revenue each game.
Now the trade scenario: We average 18,000 fans per game next season, 90% suites are sold, 90% premium seats are sold. Let's say we host 3 first round home playoff games at $2MM gate revenue each game, 3 second round home playoff games at $2.5MM gate revenue each, and 3 WCF games at $3MM gate revenue each.
You're easily talking about an extra $25 to $30MM in ticket sales next season alone with the improved roster. That's not even addressing new corporate sponsorships, merchandise sales, a better media deal (I think this one is almost up).
I know you'd have to do a way more scientific and thorough cost/benefit analysis to assess the risk/reward but on the surface it seems like a no brainer.
This post was edited on 8/5/10 at 11:10 pm
Posted on 8/5/10 at 11:35 pm to AlejandroInHouston
This all sounds so good. I'm really trying not to get my hopes up, but I really think this is something that can happen
Posted on 8/5/10 at 11:43 pm to americanoutlaw
I would start Anderson over Okafor, and that would be an awesome trade. I don't think Birdman wants to leave Denver, though.
Posted on 8/6/10 at 12:43 am to AlejandroInHouston
It makes for us a great team, but I see a few flaws when it comes to the Denver side.
1. You create a huge problem at PG for the Nuggets. They have too many. They then have Billups, Lawson, and DC. It is too much talent locked in a position. It is very similar to are guard situation.
2. You have them trading JR Smith for Thornton. Would they really think that was an upgrade. I could easily see Thornton commanding a similar contract to Smith's. I personally like Thornton, but the move doesn't really make them younger are more financially flexible.
3. They then give up Birdman who is a great energy guy who appears to have a decent contract.
I wish we could get them to agree to that trade, but I seriously doubt it. I just think they could get more out of what they are giving up.
I think Portland could easily do a better deal than that.
1. You create a huge problem at PG for the Nuggets. They have too many. They then have Billups, Lawson, and DC. It is too much talent locked in a position. It is very similar to are guard situation.
2. You have them trading JR Smith for Thornton. Would they really think that was an upgrade. I could easily see Thornton commanding a similar contract to Smith's. I personally like Thornton, but the move doesn't really make them younger are more financially flexible.
3. They then give up Birdman who is a great energy guy who appears to have a decent contract.
I wish we could get them to agree to that trade, but I seriously doubt it. I just think they could get more out of what they are giving up.
I think Portland could easily do a better deal than that.
This post was edited on 8/6/10 at 12:45 am
Posted on 8/6/10 at 2:34 am to Colonel Flagg
This trade has tremedous upside for New Orleans. Granted we loose our youth but we also make CP3 happy by bringing in Melo. I would love if this trade went down.
Denver better do this or else they will lose Melo next off season to the Knicks.
Denver better do this or else they will lose Melo next off season to the Knicks.
Posted on 8/6/10 at 7:48 am to AlejandroInHouston
If this trade were to happen...it wouldn't be til after this season, right? Or am i mistaken? I haven't been keeping up this offseason that much.
Posted on 8/6/10 at 8:29 am to AlejandroInHouston
quote:
yeah we'd be adding $4 to $6MM in payroll
I think this is unavoidable. Denver is currently $7 - $8 million over the tax. If they are switching to rebuilding I think we have to use our trade exceptions to let them shed some salary.
This is multiple trades so the trade machine can't handle it, not to mention our rookies aren't listed yet but:
DC and trade exceptions to Portland for Bayless and Rudy.
Bayless, Rudy, Brackins, Peja to Denver for
Carmelo, Anthony Carter and Coby Karl (or some other filler)
MoPete Trade Exception for Birdman and possibly filler.
I'm not sure if we'd need to add a pick to this or not, but for the price of Carmelo and Birdman we save them $12 million and get them about $1 million away from the safe side of the tax threshold, plus they get a good young combo guard, all star potential scoring 2/3, a promising stretch 4, and possibly a 1st round pick.
The Hornets would then need to find a place to dump Juju and Songaila to get back under the tax, but you give Denver some nice pieces to build with and the Hornets get Carmelo and still keep Pondexter and Thornton and add Birdman who can help considering how thin the front line is.
Posted on 8/6/10 at 2:19 pm to TigerinATL
what point would trading collison to denver make for them. they already have mr big shot and lawson. you have to look at both teams ends for a trade to matter. they have absolutely zero need for darren collison thus making this trade pointless
Posted on 8/6/10 at 2:32 pm to Ron Mexico
Posted on 8/6/10 at 2:36 pm to TthomasJR
It would give the Nuggets a lot of money in expiring deals to work with and the Pacers really want DC, it's not any more unrealistic than others have been.
Posted on 8/6/10 at 2:40 pm to Ron Mexico
quote:
they already have mr big shot and lawson
Billups has a $14 million team option next year. Depending on how the CBA shakes out they could cut him if they go into full rebuild mode. But no room for Collison is why in my trade I flipped DC to Portland first. Collison would likely be part of any Melo deal, he just would go to another team.
This post was edited on 8/6/10 at 2:41 pm
Posted on 8/6/10 at 3:14 pm to AlejandroInHouston
The overrating of Melo on this board is incredible. He is not some sort of magical elixir to the slew of roster problems the Hornets have.
Posted on 8/6/10 at 4:06 pm to Ghazi
David West>Dirk
Posted on 8/6/10 at 4:09 pm to Ghazi
Melo + Paul would be legit, bruh
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