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re: If We Sign Holiday, What Next?
Posted on 6/10/17 at 8:08 am to corndeaux
Posted on 6/10/17 at 8:08 am to corndeaux
The biggest change has been the ability of guys to hit off the dribble 3's. THAT has changed the game. Think of those 90s Magic and Rockets teams -- the best three point shooting teams of that era. But how many pull up, off the dribble 3-point shooters did they have? Cassel wasn't horrible but literally nobody else did it
For the game to be more balanced again, you gotta make THAT shot difficult again
For the game to be more balanced again, you gotta make THAT shot difficult again
1
Posted on 6/10/17 at 12:49 pm to corndeaux
quote:
how does returning to low post, center oriented play not do the same thing, just as something you prefer?
I think it balances the current game out, not shifts to another single dominant style of play.
Boogie would benefit no doubt but he's no Shaq.
Teams like Houston and GS would still thrive, but teams whose stars are big guys could play a different style altogether and be successful.
The rule definitely helped perimeter play, but it's also a whole helluva lot harder to score on the low block when the defender can hand-check you.
There are no more Shaqs. All I see it doing is making the game more competitive, making strategy important again and balancing out the league in terms of parity. For example, just look at the Pels. They'd benefit. They wouldn't be unstoppable, but they'd be much harder to gameplan for if you could feed Boogie on the low block, force a double-team and either kick it out for a 3 or find AD crashing to the goal.
This post was edited on 6/10/17 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 6/11/17 at 1:48 am to Number 31
All I want is for all players being on equal footing (regardless of position). Today's game is tilted toward perimeter players and ball-handlers. There's a reason Lillard's teams have been more successful than AD's. There's a reason Boogie hasn't been to the playoffs yet. There's a reason Ryno and Gordon are more successful on a Harden led team versus being on the Pels.
In yesterday's NBA, talent won out regardless of position (as it should be). There were champions that led their team from every position then: PG- Magic, Isiah, Billups. SG- Jordan, Wade. SF- Bird, Pierce. PF- Duncan. C- Olajuwon, Shaq.
In yesterday's NBA, talent won out regardless of position (as it should be). There were champions that led their team from every position then: PG- Magic, Isiah, Billups. SG- Jordan, Wade. SF- Bird, Pierce. PF- Duncan. C- Olajuwon, Shaq.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 2:54 am to PelicansBay
quote:
PelicansBay
This guy gets it.
Serious quesrion for McNamara: Have you ever played organized basketball at a competitive level?
You're smart and you write well, but some of what you say seems to be motivated just to be contrarian and leads me to think you've never actyally played the game, which if accurate you should keep your analysis of the game to facets you actually understand.
This post was edited on 6/11/17 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 6/11/17 at 4:12 am to Number 31
Lol. Can't wait for Michael's reply as I know the answer.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 7:09 am to Aussie_Pelican
No way that guy deserves a reply. Maybe the dumbest poster since Tinman on PR
Posted on 6/11/17 at 8:07 am to Crewz
i think you are overstating that ability to a certain extent.
i get the concern that more and more guys are going to try to emulate Steph off the bounce. and they will break the league, like Steph. but he's an outlier- like Dirk shooting 45-50% from mid-range for 15 years
according to NBA.com, there were only 10 guys who took more than 3 pull up 3PA/G. all primary ball handlers, which makes sense, and all seen as very good players (give or take Kemba). would need to go into the weeds more to see how many of these were clock running down shots v "normal" offense
3 guys hit above 39%. 7 hit above 35%. only Harden was under 34%. he also took 7 of those a game.
the year before, there were only 8 guys who took 3 PU3PA/G. only Steph hit above 34%. the year before that, 7 guys with only 2 above 34%. and the year before, 8 with 4 above 34%
that data is very small. is this year an outlier or is it a trend? we'll have to keep watching, but, outside of Steph and unlike spot up 3s, i think the return on those shots decreases the more you take because they are difficult shots. and there is a teammate factor too
i get the concern that more and more guys are going to try to emulate Steph off the bounce. and they will break the league, like Steph. but he's an outlier- like Dirk shooting 45-50% from mid-range for 15 years
according to NBA.com, there were only 10 guys who took more than 3 pull up 3PA/G. all primary ball handlers, which makes sense, and all seen as very good players (give or take Kemba). would need to go into the weeds more to see how many of these were clock running down shots v "normal" offense
3 guys hit above 39%. 7 hit above 35%. only Harden was under 34%. he also took 7 of those a game.
the year before, there were only 8 guys who took 3 PU3PA/G. only Steph hit above 34%. the year before that, 7 guys with only 2 above 34%. and the year before, 8 with 4 above 34%
that data is very small. is this year an outlier or is it a trend? we'll have to keep watching, but, outside of Steph and unlike spot up 3s, i think the return on those shots decreases the more you take because they are difficult shots. and there is a teammate factor too
Posted on 6/11/17 at 8:15 am to Number 31
quote:
also a whole helluva lot harder to score on the low block when the defender can hand-check you
so this is where i am confused. they can't hand check in the post with these rules, so shouldn't that make low post scoring easier? why bring the hand check rule to make it more difficult? the bigger issue, to me, for post play was zone defense rules.
the questions you have to ask here are:
how efficient was low post scoring 20 years ago?
did these rules dramatically decrease efficiency in the post?
if not, why switch back?
Posted on 6/11/17 at 8:42 am to corndeaux
If something goes from zero to 3 to 10, any mathematician would tell you it's likely to be 20-30 in 2-3 years. And it's not just those 10 guys. Many other are a threat you have to respect
Again, I don't see how this is debateable. There is no balance. Guys like Ibaka, AD, Cousins, etc would have lived in the paint 15 years ago. Blake would have been Shawn Kemp and how many 3'a did Kemp take in his 20's? Blake is being pushed out there now.
I am fine with people who say that they don't mind this new version of the NBA. I disagree, but that's fine. But to think this might be an abnegation or that teams are going to find some magical defenses to make three point rate go down is insane IMO
If you don't change the line or some rule, we are gonna see every team taking 30-50 threes per game within two years
Again, I don't see how this is debateable. There is no balance. Guys like Ibaka, AD, Cousins, etc would have lived in the paint 15 years ago. Blake would have been Shawn Kemp and how many 3'a did Kemp take in his 20's? Blake is being pushed out there now.
I am fine with people who say that they don't mind this new version of the NBA. I disagree, but that's fine. But to think this might be an abnegation or that teams are going to find some magical defenses to make three point rate go down is insane IMO
If you don't change the line or some rule, we are gonna see every team taking 30-50 threes per game within two years
Posted on 6/11/17 at 9:10 am to Crewz
quote:
something goes from zero to 3 to 10,
it didn't. it went from 8 to 7 to 8 to 10 with attempts. and 4 to 2 to 1 to 9 with efficiency above 34%.
not sure any mathematician will tell you there's a trend with efficiency at this point.
quote:
Guys like Ibaka, AD, Cousins, etc would have lived in the paint 15 years ago. Blake would have been Shawn Kemp and how many 3'a did Kemp take in his 20's? Blake is being pushed out there now.
you're changing your argument. is the general increase the problem or is it the pull up 3s?
and Davis could still live in the paint if he wanted to play the 5. he could be an updated Amare. the problem with the guys you listed is that they either don't want to be 5s or play next to a good 5 already.
PF, as we have thought of it, is a dead position in the league. people want to mourn that, fine.
those guys that can defend the rim are 5s, whether they realize it or not. they can control the paint and make hay as the lone big. Davis in the playoffs was a vision of that.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 10:07 am to corndeaux
quote:
so this is where i am confused. they can't hand check in the post with these rules, so shouldn't that make low post scoring easier? why bring the hand check rule to make it more difficult? the bigger issue, to me, for post play was zone defense rules.
the questions you have to ask here are:
how efficient was low post scoring 20 years ago?
did these rules dramatically decrease efficiency in the post?
if not, why switch back?
Bringing back the handcheck rule will make things more difficult from the perimeter. The physicality will slow down players rhythm from long-range.
I agree, the zone defense hurts post play. Teams can sag off players and clog the paint (thus the large amount of kickout 3's). The zone defense helps finesse C's thrive. Finesse C's couldn't stay on the floor (before the rule change), because they got ate up on defense in the post. C's are supposed to be physical, not perimeter dominated. It's rediculous that Dwight Howard is actually planning on attempting to shoot 3's now.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 10:10 am to corndeaux
I am not changing my argument. I say the three point line has to be moved back for SEVERAL reasons.
Or change rules. The combination of making all our bigs go behind it (Dwight says he will be working on threes behind it this summer for Christ's sakes!!!) AND guys being able to hit off the dribble threes with regularity (Heck, Reggie Miller was considered the best ever while he was playing and he didn't do that!)
Make it obvious that the line is no longer having its intended purpose. The purpose was to reward a shot that was nearly twice as hard with 1.5 the points. You took it at your own risk and sometimes it was worth it, sometimes not. Now, the math just tells you to take it all the time. And that is not going back
Or change rules. The combination of making all our bigs go behind it (Dwight says he will be working on threes behind it this summer for Christ's sakes!!!) AND guys being able to hit off the dribble threes with regularity (Heck, Reggie Miller was considered the best ever while he was playing and he didn't do that!)
Make it obvious that the line is no longer having its intended purpose. The purpose was to reward a shot that was nearly twice as hard with 1.5 the points. You took it at your own risk and sometimes it was worth it, sometimes not. Now, the math just tells you to take it all the time. And that is not going back
Posted on 6/11/17 at 11:15 am to Crewz
Allowing hand checks is interesting...is there any momentum for this?
Posted on 6/11/17 at 1:19 pm to Crewz
quote:
No way that guy deserves a reply. Maybe the dumbest poster since Tinman on PR
So you never played competitive, organized basketball... so you insult me to deflect from what was a legitimate question. Got it.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 1:27 pm to corndeaux
quote:
so this is where i am confused. they can't hand check in the post with these rules, so shouldn't that make low post scoring easier? why bring the hand check rule to make it more difficult? the bigger issue, to me, for post play was zone defense rules.
The hand-check affects positioning and the ability to post up.
Your point on zone defense is valid.
quote:
how efficient was low post scoring 20 years ago?
did these rules dramatically decrease efficiency in the post?
if not, why switch back?
Yes. Just look at the Pels for one anecdotal example. AD and DC are still scoring 25+, but most are mid-range jumpers (AD) and perimeter shots (DC).
I say do away with both rules.
Posted on 6/12/17 at 10:51 am to Crewz
quote:
guys being able to hit off the dribble threes with regularity
which is not demonstrably true right now, as pointed out above. it very well may get there- it may be there already. but that is not exactly clear at this moment for non Steph players.
quote:
I say the three point line has to be moved back for SEVERAL reasons.
that's fair. boxscoregeeks had a SLOAN abstract a few years back about the optimal # of 3PA being basically "never enough"
maybe everyone is taking 50 3PA/G in 3 years and it's a disaster. but maybe teams start switching everything and post play/OREB become more effective weapons. or maybe someone comes up with a scheme to limit 3PA, forcing offenses to adjust.
Posted on 6/12/17 at 11:12 pm to PelicansBay
Just a head's up. There's a mistake in your bio on Amazon.
It's perspective.
quote:
as his works provide a unique prospective that shines through in his stories.
It's perspective.
Posted on 6/12/17 at 11:18 pm to Peazey
Thank you
Posted on 6/12/17 at 11:42 pm to PelicansBay
Yeah, I don't want to come across as a smart arse. Just figured it would be something that you want to fix. I would want some one to tell me.
Posted on 6/13/17 at 2:58 pm to Peazey
Since I have no idea where the off-season thread went to, I'll just post this here...
Wolves are apparently going to make a run at Holiday. Now, this could simply be Jrue's agent trying to drum up interest in his client or it could be legitimate. Who knows? I'd happily do Jrue + 2 2nds for Rubio.
LINK
Wolves are apparently going to make a run at Holiday. Now, this could simply be Jrue's agent trying to drum up interest in his client or it could be legitimate. Who knows? I'd happily do Jrue + 2 2nds for Rubio.
LINK
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