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southdowns84
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2009
1135 posts

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

Then there’s 2 years and 850 attempts at 37.6% with this new form


Guess we can be intentionally obtuse if it supports our argument.. reverse cherry picking


Brogdon was 40.8% from 3 on 598 attempts when he was the 3rd or 4th option on the floor.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
5101 posts

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
Now that's an interesting number since if he came here that would be his role.

Especially since Zion would likely produce similar gravity to what Giannis did for him.


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GynoSandberg
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2006
68080 posts
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re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
Ball has never shot 38.6% for a season, much less for his career. He’s a point lower, sustained over a nice volume sample.

How does one quantify an inconsistent shooter? If given the mysterious criteria, do you think we can point Brogdon as “inconsistent”?


Lester Earl
Baylor Fan
@LesterEarl3
Member since Nov 2003
259093 posts
 Online 

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

He is only picking the last two seasons because it is the only way it's possible he can manipulate the data to make Lonzo look like a better shooter.


I don’t think any rational person would consider Ball’s time with the lakers relevant

He has a different shot, developed by a great shooting coach. He’a went from a 31% shooter to a 37% shooter and has sustained it.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
5101 posts

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

I don’t think any rational person would consider Ball’s time with the lakers relevant

He has a different shot, developed by a great shooting coach. He’a went from a 31% shooter to a 37% shooter and has sustained it.



I already said it's fair to acknowledge his clear change, what isn't is the deliberate cherry-picking to falsify who the better shooter is.

Just like it's silly ot not adjust for Lonzo's change, it's retarded to try and cherry pick Brogdon's career to go with it.

It's fine if you want to use just Lonzo's last two seasons due to his change in form, or just last year, but Brogdon is a 39% shooter on 1200 shots that had one down season due to a bunch of small lingering injury issues. Unless you want to move the goalposts, there's no reason to only be using Malcolm's worst year and this year to determine his ability as a shooter.


Baron
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Dec 2014
694 posts
 Online 

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

developed by a great shooting coach. He’a went from a 31% shooter to a 37% shooter and has sustained it.


So then we can assume Brogdon would also get the Vinson bump?


Lester Earl
Baylor Fan
@LesterEarl3
Member since Nov 2003
259093 posts
 Online 

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
Maybe ?

No one is claiming he can’t shoot, either. Despite a lower % than Lonzo over the last 2 years


southdowns84
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2009
1135 posts

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

How does one quantify an inconsistent shooter? If given the mysterious criteria, do you think we can point Brogdon as “inconsistent”?


I don’t have the time to calculate it but standard deviation isn’t a revolutionary new term in statistical analysis.


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southdowns84
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2009
1135 posts

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

No one is claiming he can’t shoot, either.


They can claim he’s a better shooter than Ball because statistically he’s a better shooter than ball in every measurable category.


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Lester Earl
Baylor Fan
@LesterEarl3
Member since Nov 2003
259093 posts
 Online 

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

to falsify who the better shooter is.



Find me where I said Lonzo was better


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shel311
Nicholls St. Fan
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
85023 posts
 Online 

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

How does one quantify
Obviously this is just random and on the fly but I used shooting below 25% from 3 this season:

Zo - 13 times in 55 games
Brogdon - 14 times in 56 games


Could mean nothing, thought it was interesting though. Brogdon does shoot less 3s, so just that alone could kinda skew the numbers I'd think. Brogdon has a 0-1 and a couple of 0-3 games, whereas Zo shot 5 or more 3s in every game this season except for 1, so a sub 25% night is more impactful due to volume. Though the total wasn't THAT huge. In Brogdon's 14 games, he shot 80 3s, and in Zo's 13 he shot 91, a difference of 1.3 attempts per game.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
5101 posts

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

Ball has never shot 38.6% for a season, much less for his career. He’s a point lower, sustained over a nice volume sample.

How does one quantify an inconsistent shooter? If given the mysterious criteria, do you think we can point Brogdon as “inconsistent”?




Take pretty much any ten game sample size of Brogdon this year, and most years other than his injury filled one last season, and there is pretty solid consistency. Everyone has bad games, but Lonzo has bad months. And unlike Brogdon, Lonzo lacks the diversified offensive skillset to contribute in other ways

Lonzo has very hot and very cold streaks. First ten games was shooting sub 30%. Then bounces back and shoots near 50%. Then cools back off and is shooting sub 35% for a dozen games, then up, then back down.

That to me is what I am talking about with consistency.

There are nights where Lonzo could get 8 wide open shots and miss 7 of them. And it is maddening still.







southdowns84
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2009
1135 posts

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

Zo - 13 times in 55 games
Brogdon - 14 times in 56 games


Could mean nothing, thought it was interesting though. Brogdon does shoot less 3s, so just that alone could kinda skew the numbers I'd think. Brogdon has a 0-1 and a couple of 0-3 games, whereas Zo shot 5 or more 3s in every game this season except for 1, so a sub 25% night is more impactful due to volume. Though the total wasn't THAT huge. In Brogdon's 14 games, he shot 80 3s, and in Zo's 13 he shot 91, a difference of 1.3 attempts per game.


Thanks, this is good stuff.


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Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
5101 posts

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:


Find me where I said Lonzo was better



A person doesn't need to spell it out when you delibrately quoted and responded to someone's challenge at you about saying whether Lonzo was a better shooter and you grabbed for cherry picked data showing Lonzo with a higher percentage and qualified it no further.


Lester Earl
Baylor Fan
@LesterEarl3
Member since Nov 2003
259093 posts
 Online 

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

Obviously this is just random and on the fly but I used shooting below 25% from 3 this season:

Zo - 13 times in 55 games
Brogdon - 14 times in 56 games



You can’t use this year for Brogdon though


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southdowns84
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2009
1135 posts

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
What I’d be interested in seeing is Lonzo’s % in the 4th quarter of close games when teams are playing defense, because that’s what’s going to happen in the playoffs (like last year in the bubble).


Lester Earl
Baylor Fan
@LesterEarl3
Member since Nov 2003
259093 posts
 Online 

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

A person doesn't need to spell it out when you delibrately quoted and responded to someone's challenge at you about saying whether Lonzo was a better shooter and you grabbed for cherry picked data showing Lonzo with a higher percentage and qualified it no further.


So nothing huh


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shel311
Nicholls St. Fan
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
85023 posts
 Online 

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

Everyone has bad games, but Lonzo has bad months
If you remove the 1st month since it's a super small 5 game sample, and not a full month:

Zo's worst 3pt shooting months:

33.8%
34.0%


Brogdon's worst 3pt shooting months:

33.3%
33.3%


But the main difference was Brogdon had 2 good/2 not good, while Zo had 1 good/3 not good.


quote:

Lonzo has very hot and very cold streaks. First ten games was shooting sub 30%. Then bounces back and shoots near 50%. Then cools back off and is shooting sub 35% for a dozen games, then up, then back down.

That to me is what I am talking about with consistency.
Brogdon's splits by month:

41.5%
33.3%
44.8%
33.3%

This post was edited on 6/2 at 5:25 pm


shel311
Nicholls St. Fan
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
85023 posts
 Online 

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

What I’d be interested in seeing is Lonzo’s % in the 4th quarter of close games when teams are playing defense, because that’s what’s going to happen in the playoffs (like last year in the bubble).

Should be super easy to get, but unfortunately that's an NBA.com stat, and I really suck at using that website.


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Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
5101 posts

re: Hypo: Who would you rather pay
quote:

Obviously this is just random and on the fly but I used shooting below 25% from 3 this season:

Zo - 13 times in 55 games
Brogdon - 14 times in 56 games


Could mean nothing, thought it was interesting though. Brogdon does shoot less 3s, so just that alone could kinda skew the numbers I'd think. Brogdon has a 0-1 and a couple of 0-3 games, whereas Zo shot 5 or more 3s in every game this season except for 1, so a sub 25% night is more impactful due to volume. Though the total wasn't THAT huge. In Brogdon's 14 games, he shot 80 3s, and in Zo's 13 he shot 91, a difference of 1.3 attempts per game.

It's worth noting if we are talking about overall consistency, only 4 of those games did Brogdon maintain an overall 25% or less shooting night.

11 out of Lonzo's 13 games he shot 25% or less overall those games.

Which I think highlights one of the issues Lonzo needs to figure out, which is how he can grow his offensive arsenal to find ways to still contribute when his threes aren't falling.

Nearly 20 games this season we had a night where Lonzo took between 8-20 shots, a majority of them threes, but shot less than 37% from the field overall. And a lot of those nights he'd also add 3+ turnovers....And this is in the context of a third option with more wide open looks. Brogdon was often the second option, sometimes first option most nights.

This post was edited on 6/2 at 5:39 pm


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