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re: How bad is this 2021 draft?

Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:14 pm to
Posted by Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
12646 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:14 pm to
You are being pretty aggressive defending a guy that as you say, shot 70% from the FT line.

If the guy was pushing 90% I’d say odds are better than not he has the tools and form to develop a good NBA jumper, but 70% is almost 10% below NBA league average, even lower for a guard, I wouldn’t say it’s a guarantee at all that he even becomes average.



Posted by supe12sta12z
Tiger Town
Member since Apr 2012
12748 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:15 pm to
I'd be very worried if the team thinks they can solve the shooting issues solely through the draft. So I don't think that's their thought process. They're going to take who they think is the best player and fit for this team and if that player is a sharpshooter, then it's gravy. The good news is that there are quite a few quality shooters in this upcoming free agency and that's where they should be focusing on when it comes to shooting.
Posted by supe12sta12z
Tiger Town
Member since Apr 2012
12748 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:19 pm to
I put more stock in guys like Johnson and Bouknight developing a shot vs guys like Barnes and Kuminga. 70% at the line is where I draw the line on how I see their potential in developing a shot.
This post was edited on 5/19/21 at 12:20 pm
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
127690 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:19 pm to
70% is decent for college. I think that’s almost exactly the college average.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36137 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Marcus Smart developed into a competent shooter you dickwad.
Yep 33%

My point is that not everyone develops a shot. That's it. You're acting as if everyone figures it out. I'm saying that he could do it, he hasn't shown it yet, therefore it's still up in the air. I didn't even say that it was unlikely just that it was a big "if". The literal definition of a "big if" is "something that is both important and uncertain". Geez, take a lap.
Posted by supe12sta12z
Tiger Town
Member since Apr 2012
12748 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:25 pm to
6 attempts a game. You clearly haven't watched the evolution of Smart. It's not an elite shooter by any stretch of the imagination but he's very competent unlike a guy like Simmons. Enough that Stevens gives him the green light. But keep focusing on stats without context.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36137 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:29 pm to
Simmons is one of the worst shooters in the league. You can not develop a shot a still be a better shooter than Simmons.

Are you really arguing that Smart is a good shooter? He's had one season where he shot league average

I'm perplexed that you think everyone should automatically assume someone will be a good shooter because they shot 70% from the line in college. Could he? Yes, I never denied that. But, acting as if it should be assumed is asinine.

ETA: are you his brother or just a Stan?
This post was edited on 5/19/21 at 12:31 pm
Posted by supe12sta12z
Tiger Town
Member since Apr 2012
12748 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:33 pm to
You keep twisting words. I said several times now that Smart is a competent shooter. You don't listen very well. I said there is evidence that Johnson can develop a shot. You keep come back and acting like I said he's going to be a great shooter. But keep imagining it.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36137 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:36 pm to
I think the issue is that you don't understand what the phrase "big if" means. It's the term that triggered you with my initial comment.

It just means "important and uncertain". That's it.

If you're going to argue against the "uncertain" part of that, then I don't know what to tell you.
Posted by kadillak
Member since Nov 2007
7641 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:37 pm to
IMO, this class is probably most comparable to the 2018 class as draft prospects in recent years. Went into the draft with a good top tier of Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, JJJ, and Young at the top. Then you go late into the lottery with guys like SGA, both Bridges, Porter. Zhiare Smith slipped out the lottery when many thought he was a top 10 prospect. Robert Williams and Mitchell Robinson slipped way down the draft when they were considered lottery talents because of respective question marks.

Just looking at guys I've seen discussed in the lottery tier: Cade, Mobley, Suggs, Green /// Kuminga, Barnes, Keon, Springer, Giddey, Garuba, Moody, Isaiah Jack, Kai, DMitch, Kispert, Bouknight, Wagner, Mann, Jalen Johnson, Rife, ZWill. There's some really good depth to that second tier. For example, I view Kai Jones as similar draft prospect as Jax and there's a pretty good chance that Kai goes outside of the lottery.

Posted by Mad Scientist26
Member since Jul 2018
2257 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:48 pm to
I really like Moses Moody or Korey Kispert with our 1st round pick. Also, I like Jared Butler or Chris Duarte (although he may slip to us in the 2nd) if we can somehow sneak into the backend of the 1st. I’m not sure if we can draft a starter in this draft but I would consider two solid shooters off the bench a win.
Posted by supe12sta12z
Tiger Town
Member since Apr 2012
12748 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:53 pm to
I really like Duarte and like him better than Kispert as he's a better defender and is the better athlete. It's unfortunate that he's turning 24 when the draft rolls around.
Posted by CP3forMVP
Member since Nov 2010
15760 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

I could see the argument, I'm not in love with Keon Johnson or Jalen Johnson for instance


When I watch Keon Johnson I really like what he does defensively, and I think a guy that takes the approach that he does to the defensive end of the court is exacly what this team needs.

But then you look at the offensive game, and there's just nothing there for me. Sure he's got potential, but you can only rely on potential for so long. Somebody in this thread said "even Austin Rivers figured out how to shoot." Rivers shot 37% from three at Duke. Keon is a 27% guy. He's not a threat, and I know we all want to sit here and say that he will get better, but how often does someone that bad even become average?

I went back and looked at the guys selected in the lottery of the last 10 drafts and the list of guys who were sub 30% shooters in college and became even average in the NBA is pretty short. Kawhi, Otto Porter, Jaylen Brown, and Donovan Mitchell. Obviously there's a theme with 3/4 of those guys, but the list of guys who were bad in college and stayed bad in the NBA is much much longer.

Johnson is intriguing, but kind of weird to me at the same time. If you just look at a picture of him you would think he's this 6'9" super athletic wing, but I don't think he has the lateral quickness to defend on the perimeter in the NBA. And he lacks a first step and shot creation offensively to play on the wing. He's just a weird prospect in general.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36137 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 1:44 pm to
quote:

But then you look at the offensive game, and there's just nothing there for me. Sure he's got potential, but you can only rely on potential for so long. Somebody in this thread said "even Austin Rivers figured out how to shoot." Rivers shot 37% from three at Duke. Keon is a 27% guy. He's not a threat, and I know we all want to sit here and say that he will get better, but how often does someone that bad even become average?

How fricking dare you
Posted by CelticDog
Member since Apr 2015
42867 posts
Posted on 5/20/21 at 11:14 am to
quote:

70% is almost 10% below NBA league average


its 77%


if a prospect is below avg ft he better do something at a premier level for me to take him.









This post was edited on 5/20/21 at 11:20 am
Posted by RUFshreve
Shree'pote
Member since Jul 2016
3027 posts
Posted on 5/20/21 at 8:01 pm to
I think Moses Moody and Davion Mitchell are the two prospects that would make the most sense for us, in our projected range.

Moody has the higher upside for sure. Dude has an insane ceiling as a defender, with his 6'6 height and 7'0 wingspan. He is a menace on the wing and can effectively guard 1-4. His movement off-ball and his willingness to take big shots is exactly what we need offensively. Think of all how well JJ fit with Zion year one, before he became a shell of himself, their two man game really worked well. That was primarily because of the constant motion from JJ stretching the defense and Zion being able to capitalize or dish for the three. We need someone who brings that to the starting unit. I think Moody is the perfect 2-3 for us. He brings shooting and defense. Y'all want a true 3&D wing, this is the guy. He will turn 19 right before the draft, so they sky is the limit with Moody.

On the other hand, you have Davion Mitchell. Griff says he wants toughness, BBIQ and shooting. Meet Davion Mitchell, the definition of those three qualities in a national champion prospect, who comes into the league ready to contribute from day one (something Griff and co. will probably prefer at this point). He can catch and shoot or shoot of the dribble, something only BI offers right now in the starting five. Mitchell is tenacious at the point of attack defensively and would set the tone for the entire team defensively. We always talk about wanting an alpha dog type that gives 100% all the time, I think Mitchell is that guy. He is also a decent secondary creator, great leader and teammate and overall winner. He has a champions mindset. You could see it on display in the NCG. I try not to go overboard with evaluating prospects just from their March madness performances, but Mitchell's was so good, it's impossible to ignore.

I think if we stay in the 8-10 range, these are the two guys who fit us the best. I also like Garuba and wish we could get another mid first to grab him.
This post was edited on 5/20/21 at 8:05 pm
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36137 posts
Posted on 5/20/21 at 8:43 pm to
Agreed with this entire post.

Mitchell is basically Marcus Smart with a better jump shot.

Moody is the definition of a 3 & D wing.
Posted by CelticDog
Member since Apr 2015
42867 posts
Posted on 5/20/21 at 9:54 pm to
quote:

Mitchell is basically Marcus Smart with a better jump shot.




this would a good one to throw in a couple of 2nds to move up 2 spots and snag him.
Posted by Jojodaddy
Member since Dec 2015
522 posts
Posted on 5/20/21 at 9:58 pm to
Nailed it.
Posted by Awesome All Day
Plaquemine, La
Member since Jul 2011
822 posts
Posted on 5/21/21 at 8:41 am to
quote:

I think Moses Moody and Davion Mitchell are the two prospects that would make the most sense for us, in our projected range.


Depending on where we pick (13-20ish) I'm all in for Moody. I think defense is our biggest need and this guy can defend the entire floor... and he takes pride in doing so. The fact that he can score as well is the cherry on top. He's a mature kid and I believe this team could use someone with his type of personality and business like mentality.
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