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CoeJ
New Orleans Saints Fan
North Cack
Member since Oct 2010
1586 posts

Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
It's not this year so Boston is being tossed aside as not having a draft pick to sweeten this thing but the Memphis pick is the most valuable draft pick outside of the 3/4 this year.

Memphis pick is 1-6 protected next year - odds are it will not convey. The following year (full rebuild Memphis) the pick is unprotected.

This could put us in the top 4 of a potentially LOADED draft, depending if/when one and done is scrapped, and we'll be going into Zion's third and probably first huge year.

Tatum is the best player on the board and the Memphis pick is a much bigger asset than people realize.

If this team isn't in LOVE with somebody they can grab at 3 or 4, they should play the long game.


Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5075 posts
 Online 

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
How is a Memphis team with Morant, JJJ, the assets they get from Conley, and other guys possibly finish with that bad of a record? On top of that, they will have a lot of space in 2020 and will be trying to win in 2020-21. I would bet that pick is much more like Sacramento's this year, where everyone thought it would be good a few years ago and it finishes 14th


bugafor6
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2016
2895 posts

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
Well, we know that absolute chaos can happen so I’ll take a guaranteed lotto pick any day of the week. Morant and some young assets won’t all of a sudden make them contenders


jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
1203 posts

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
The Memphis pick took a shite last night when they got #2.. at least from where I'm sitting

That's another Austin Rivers situation waiting to happen


TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
50400 posts
 Online 

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
I would eventually trade it rather than holding onto it, but I think last night made that pick way more valuable by demonstrating just how much flattening the odds changed things.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
477 posts

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
quote:

How is a Memphis team with Morant, JJJ, the assets they get from Conley, and other guys possibly finish with that bad of a record? On top of that, they will have a lot of space in 2020 and will be trying to win in 2020-21. I would bet that pick is much more like Sacramento's this year, where everyone thought it would be good a few years ago and it finishes 14th




By the very nature of the flattening system, picks are both more and less valuable.

We just saw LA go from 11 to 4, the Pels 7 to 1. Cleveland from 2 to out of the top 5.

I think in Memphis's case the pick becomes more, not less valuable. As they are likely to not be a bottom 3 seed, but not in the playoff hunt either. So that 7-10 pick is going to have a much greater probability of rising. I think it becomes a safer asset actually. By far the best draft asset amongst the three proposed teams packages.


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Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5075 posts
 Online 

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
Odds are still odds.

Yes, last night teams with 6% chances did well. But that doesn't change the fact that odds are odds

I think the most likely outcome with that Memphis pick is that you end up getting some pick in the 8-12 range, either next year or in 2021. And I think most GMs would feel the same and trade accordingly

Its a solid asset but no way is it better than #3 or even #4 this year


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30
CoeJ
New Orleans Saints Fan
North Cack
Member since Oct 2010
1586 posts

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
Interesting.

I don't see the easiest path to rebuild with them. The only assets they'll have under contract going into that season are morant, jaren jackson and kyle anderson.

That's a hell of an empty canvas. It's also not a sexy market.

Conley is not going to get a Boogie haul, even the shitty one he did get. I see too much having to go right for that Memphis pick to be low lottery (in terms of ping pong balls anyway)

What's the biggest FA haul they've ever had? Z-Bo?

The had to get Conley and the Gasols through the draft. I just don't see them being a fringe playoff team in 2 years without a lot going right.

I also value BOS players over everyone (except maybe Robinson)



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10
teke184
LSU Fan
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
32467 posts
 Online 

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
Memphis could trade Conley and is still in the west.

Dallas won’t be tanking this year. The Lake Show is, in theory, healthier. New Orleans won’t be tanking this year.

About the only team in the West guaranteed to be worse than Memphis is the Suns. Possibly the Wolves if KAT gets hurt.


That’s not to guarantee it will be a high pick but I think Memphis is in the lowest strata of the west right now and the odds are against a major leap.


Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5075 posts
 Online 

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
Right. And their pick in 2020 is protected so it can't be elite.

The only shot at becoming amazing is in 2021 and my argument is that by then they will be good. And more importantly they will be trying and going all out because they won't have their pick and they will have been a losing team for the last 3 years in a small market.

Anything is possible but as a GM you have to think about what is most likely when evaluating a future asset and I think the most likely outcome is that it's a late lotto pick in 20 or 21


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Suntiger
USA Fan
BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
26641 posts

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
The new lottery system basically makes future picks the equivalent of Schrödinger’s cat. Future picks are now more and less valuable at the same time.


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SCLSUMuddogs
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2010
5075 posts

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
The knicks have an unprotected dallas pick for 2021 and their own pick. That seems like a better value to me


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teke184
LSU Fan
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
32467 posts
 Online 

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
Late lottery in 2021 is currently projected to be fairly good since it is set to be a “double class” with one-and-done ending.

It also means a future asset to get rather than having a ton of assets now which we have to figure out how to shoehorn together.



I’m not saying that Memphis pick is the end all be all but I think it beats any pick the Lakers could offer. Not the Knicks, though.


Pelefraan 1
Member since Jan 2018
1796 posts

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
quote:

Late lottery in 2021 is currently projected to be fairly good since it is set to be a “double class” with one-and-done ending. It also means a future asset to get rather than having a ton of assets now which we have to figure out how to shoehorn together. I’m not saying that Memphis pick is the end all be all but I think it beats any pick the Lakers could offer. Not the Knicks, though.


Excellent points. I'm recommending you for the Elite Board


Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5075 posts
 Online 

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
Actually it won't be the double dip year and giving out false info is a BIG no-no on the elite board :)


Pelefraan 1
Member since Jan 2018
1796 posts

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
Well this is awkward
This post was edited on 5/15 at 10:05 am


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CoeJ
New Orleans Saints Fan
North Cack
Member since Oct 2010
1586 posts

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
Are the double dip year and the Bronny year going to match up?


NOFOX
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
7474 posts
 Online 

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
quote:

Are the double dip year and the Bronny year going to match up?


Double dip is going to be 2022. I believe Bronny is Class of 2023.


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tigerforever7
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2012
480 posts
 Online 

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
I am having trouble finding it on the internet, but what picks do we have this coming draft? Obviously I know we have #1.


CoeJ
New Orleans Saints Fan
North Cack
Member since Oct 2010
1586 posts

re: Boston's pick to offer might be the most valuable one.
39
57 via Den


ETA:

Boston would conceivably offer 14, 20, 22 this year and MEM future 1st (top 6 protected 2020)

Lakers currently have only #4 to give this year. They also have future firsts.

Knicks have #3 and #55 this year along with future firsts and 2 future Dallas firsts.

This post was edited on 5/15 at 10:28 am


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