re: Are we not one move away from being a top 5 team?

huge gamble that might pay off incrementally
but it could also cost you the whole shooting match

I'd rather see them cut bait on holiday, extend cousins with the cap space, and troll for backcourt help. ideally you trade for Rubio, extend cousins, diallo plays, get lucky with some bottom end moves, and have at least some options going forward

holidays contract is an option that might work, but if it doesn't I don't see much of a viable plan B, and they could see cousins walk

agree on defense which is why you sign a beverly/allen type at a fraction of holidays cost. Or try to get in on a 3 team Boston trade and get Bradley. Or even trade the 18 first for Bradley hoping it will be mid-first anyway

Bradley/Rubio would be quite a different look than what we've had

I don't know what Bradley will get
but he's signed for 9MM next season then UFA so it buys you a year

3 moves...

1. Coach
2. GM
3. CP3

That Is always the case. If a player is good, they have a ton of leverage -- whether you got them in a trade a year ago or four years ago (Jrue). Whether you got them in the draft or off the streets

You can be afraid of a playing leaving or demanding a big deal. You gotta identify the players you want and then go get them. And then if you still want them, keep them

The problem with Asik wasn't the leverage it was that he was a dying breed and declining. It was a misevaluation of talent and where the league was going. The evaluation has to be better. THAT is what needs to be fixed

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The problem with Asik wasn't the leverage it was that he was a dying breed and declining. It was a misevaluation of talent and where the league was going. The evaluation has to be better. THAT is what needs to be fixed

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It was not JUST a misevaluation of talent, but also a bloated contract. If I remember correctly, if they didn't sign Asik, they only had like $3M with which to replace him and AD didn't want to play C. They had no realistic option other than Asik and couldn't get over the 1st they sunk into him, so his agent had all of the power. The contract was for more money and longer than everyone thought it would be. It was universally panned as a bad contract from the moment it was signed.

If you trade a 1st for someone who only has a year left right now, you are pretty much guaranteed to overpay them next summer. If we trade the 2018 1st, it should be for someone who we can control for at least 2 years (unless it is a Paul George type player). By that point, the Cousins extension drama is over and won't affect the decision making process.

We would also be able to be in a much better negotiating stance in that we will have more flexibility to move contracts, we could try to groom a replacement (at least feign that we are okay with them walking), and we would have our 2019 & 2020 pick.

Biyombo signed for 3 mil that summer. We also saw them get serviceable bigs for the minimum this summer for the minimum

People who don't understand sunk cost are terrible business. Dell was obviously not well versed in it. We will see if he learned his lesson

Every guys contract comes up sooner or later. And again, if he is a good player, he has a ton of leverage. Doesn't matter what you gave up for him. Shouldn't matter what the alternatives are. The Pats don't overpay people. Doesn't matter if they gave up something of value to get them or don't have a viable alternative that can replace them immediately. It's ALWAYS a bad decision, and will come back to bite you

But if you love a guy, go get him and pay him. If you think you'll love a guy but he doesn't work out, cut bait-- even if it meant you "lost" the original move. Better than doubling down on a bad move. Example-- imagine if Orlando doubled down and gave Ibaka the max as opposed to getting a little something. Does the first trade look terrible? Sure, but they didn't double down. That was Dell's error with E.G. And Asik

Can't wait to see if he's learned

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Biyombo signed for 3 mil that summer. We also saw them get serviceable bigs for the minimum this summer for the minimum

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I championed signing him over Asik before the Asik deal. I was criticized because we were a playoffs team and getting younger and less experienced was not an option. Many also said Bioymbo was too small and unproven as a starter. People also went crazy because signing Bioyombo would mean no Gee and DC. The bigs available this summer are not really relevant to our decision back then. I just think Dell backed himself into a corner with the Asik deal.

The Pats put themselves in a position to very rarely overpay by smart management. They always have the bargaining advantage because almost everyone is replaceable. They have a system that values player development where backups are ready to step in and assume the starter's role, they also manage cap space very well and keep a nice collection of draft picks. It also helps that their HOF QB is willing to be paid under market value.

Dell is not Bellichick though and we know that. My issue is that I think Dell will be influenced by things other than a pure player evaluation next summer even more so than he will be with Jrue this summer. Dell is going to really consider the message it sends to team Cousins (and AD) if we (i) let Jrue walk for nothing, (ii) trade another first for a player, (iii) if that player does well, we don't resign them due to $$$ and (iv) instead elect to go with a budget option because that is all we can afford or trade the 2019 pick after the draft and start all over.

I just don't see Dell being disciplined about a contract for a guard next summer with Cousins extension (and his job) on the line. Him not really considering trading Ryno and Jrue at the deadlines also hints that he still wants to "win" his previous trades/moves [no learned lesson on sunk costs] and is obviously infleunced by how his moves will be perceived by AD/Cousins.

So with that in mind what would you pay Lin and/or Bradley next summer assuming they performed as you expect? What's the number you let them walk? Over or under $24M?

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This is hard. Predicting the future is the job

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Sooooo much luck and random variables involved

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while certainly true, the Asik/Ajinca contracts were brain dead on arrival. a complete whiff on what the team needed. forget where the league was headed; the league was already there w/r/t slow bigs.

keeping one of them made sense. but BOTH and for so many years? just completely foolish

We need a true point guard; move Jrue to SG ; and a small forward who can score decently and defend.