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About 5% people who reject trading Lonzo actually realise what the implications are
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:02 pm
I'll bet my house Lonzo re-signing with the Pels straight into free agency is one of the least likely outcomes.
He's going to test the waters of the open market and receiving offers of 23-26 mil is very, very likely.
What these people are saying is that they are very happy to give Lonzo 4/100, and also equally happy to let him walk for nothing. It's going to take nothing less than 25 mil per for Lonzo to quickly agree to for a no-fuss re-signing with Nawlins.
Very short sighted, unless they think a sign and trade is quite likely
He's going to test the waters of the open market and receiving offers of 23-26 mil is very, very likely.
What these people are saying is that they are very happy to give Lonzo 4/100, and also equally happy to let him walk for nothing. It's going to take nothing less than 25 mil per for Lonzo to quickly agree to for a no-fuss re-signing with Nawlins.
Very short sighted, unless they think a sign and trade is quite likely
This post was edited on 3/2/21 at 1:05 pm
12
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:09 pm to Pelefraan 1
I specifically put together this thread because of all the blind Lonzo speculation:
LINK /
Long story short, basically you need to convince yourself Chicago or NY is going to hand Lonzo a godfather offer, and more and more it doesn’t make much sense for NY with the return of Rose.
And with Chicago they run the risk of missing out on the rest of FA, and basically lock themselves into resigning their guys, if they get tied up in an offer that we wait to match.
LINK /
Long story short, basically you need to convince yourself Chicago or NY is going to hand Lonzo a godfather offer, and more and more it doesn’t make much sense for NY with the return of Rose.
And with Chicago they run the risk of missing out on the rest of FA, and basically lock themselves into resigning their guys, if they get tied up in an offer that we wait to match.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:12 pm to Pelefraan 1
What do we think the return is for Lonzo at this point? Other than a trade for another expiring guy, I haven't seen a ton.
And if you're a team that is prepared to offer $26 million to Lonzo Ball (and I don't think this team exists), why are you trading for him? If you know that the Pels are trading him because they don't want to pay him, just give him your huge offer sheet and sign him in four months.
And if you're a team that is prepared to offer $26 million to Lonzo Ball (and I don't think this team exists), why are you trading for him? If you know that the Pels are trading him because they don't want to pay him, just give him your huge offer sheet and sign him in four months.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:13 pm to TotesMcGotes
quote:The type of team that this would make sense for is a team that would like him, but does not have the cap. Therefore, they are basically trading for his bird rights.
And if you're a team that is prepared to offer $26 million to Lonzo Ball (and I don't think this team exists), why are you trading for him? If you know that the Pels are trading him because they don't want to pay him, just give him your huge offer sheet and sign him in four months.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:14 pm to Bronc
You seriously think the corpse of D-Rose is in the Knicks long-term plans, so much so that they'll pass on Ball to hand Rose the keys to the team for the next 10+ years.
Righto
Righto
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:16 pm to NOSHAU
I suppose, but those are the types of moves you make for superstars, not Lonzo Ball.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:18 pm to Pelefraan 1
quote:
He's going to test the waters of the open market and receiving offers of 23-26 mil is very, very likely.
I just don't see that happening. I can see somewhere in the ballpark of 17-20 though which is reasonable.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:36 pm to Pelefraan 1
He’s a restricted FA. Not a lot of teams are usually willing to tie up $26million on their books for 3 days waiting for the possibility the other team matches. Free agency moves too fast in the first 72 hours to risk it. I don’t see that happening for Lonzo.
He’ll get around 20 a year, and honestly at this point he deserves it. The Pels just need to ask whether they think he can be moved in the future at that price, and right now the answer is yes.
He’ll get around 20 a year, and honestly at this point he deserves it. The Pels just need to ask whether they think he can be moved in the future at that price, and right now the answer is yes.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:36 pm to Pelefraan 1
quote:
You seriously think the corpse of D-Rose is in the Knicks long-term plans, so much so that they'll pass on Ball to hand Rose the keys to the team for the next 10+ years.
Righto
No but I think the Knicks are trying to win now and they have Quickley, who they are very high on, and Thibs and Rose have a long-standing relationship. So they have their PG for now and the guy they think is their future.
So godfathering Lonzo and making him their centerpiece acquisition, potentially missing out on other options to do so, doesn’t make a ton of sense.
As I said in that thread, I wouldn’t rule out the Knicks, but there are a lot of good reasons why they wouldn’t and not a ton of really good reasons they should godfather Lonzo.
And given the smoke from seemingly Lonzo’s camp focused on Chicago, that seems to me where the interest lies to drive up his price.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:39 pm to TotesMcGotes
quote:Not really. Usually teams go out of their way to clear cap for the superstars as superstars choose where they will play. The trades to use the bird rights happen for borderline stars and top supporting players. Some team may think he is that.
I suppose, but those are the types of moves you make for superstars, not Lonzo Ball.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 1:39 pm to Bronc
quote:
Chicago or NY
One piece of the puzzle here is that Chicago's GM from last year is working as a consultant for the Pels. So they should have a pretty good idea of just how far Chicago is or isn't willing to go.
Dolan is a loose cannon but we see signs that Leon Rose is in charge and running the team like a sane and competent GM. After reading several recent takes on Rose, "patient" is one of the adjectives I saw repeatedly. If he and Thibs can keep the team where it is, winning and firmly in the playoffs, I think they'd be a lot less likely to want to overpay for Lonzo. They won't need Lonzo's name recognition, and honestly might have a better shot at FAs in another year after they show the dumpster fire is definitely out.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 2:02 pm to Pelefraan 1
quote:
About 5% people who reject trading Lonzo actually realise what the implications are
This is the Crewziest thread title if there ever was one.
Did you forget your log in or something?
Posted on 3/2/21 at 2:05 pm to Pelefraan 1
this board shifted so fast on lonzo it made my head spin 
Posted on 3/2/21 at 2:05 pm to Pelefraan 1
And the correct answer is give him 4/80 and move on with building the rest of your team with 3pt shooters and defensive wings. If he's giving you 15/5/5 or anywhere in the vicinity of that on 40% 3pt shooting with good defense he's worth that all day at 23 years old. He'll get better and develop into a 3 level scorer with his speed.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 2:13 pm to Pelefraan 1
Lonzo is not getting 26 mil
Why are you making this up
Why are you making this up
Posted on 3/2/21 at 2:39 pm to TotesMcGotes
quote:
And if you're a team that is prepared to offer $26 million to Lonzo Ball (and I don't think this team exists), why are you trading for him?
First off, you all need to understand that a max contract for Lonzo would start at $28M. This is why i argued about him getting $25M/yr, b/c it's just under his max. It just seems ridiculous at that point. $20-22M would seem like the max for him b/c if you go any higher, why wouldn't you just be giving him an actual max contract?
Secondly, a team trades for him b/c they control him once they get him b/c he's a RFA. Now that might not be the best way to negotiate with a player, but it would ensure that you can keep him, and it would also mean that if you are a team that doens't have the cap space in the offseason, this is your way to "sign" a big FA.
I think you can gauge his value similar to Porzingis, getting two first round picks back. The Knicks also got Dennis Smith Jr, who in his 2nd year was still looking pretty good, so you can really say his value was 3 1sts. The rest of the trade was mostly swapping salaries so the Knicks could get expiring's to create $75M in cap space so they could sign 5 PF's.
I think Porzingis was valued a bit higher at that time than Lonzo is right now, but 2 1sts in the late teens early 20's should be expected, or 1 1st and a young player.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 2:43 pm to whatiknowsofar
quote:
And the correct answer is give him 4/80
I think the more correct answer is you give him what the market will bear.
It would be silly to hand him 20 million if, say, the highest open market bidder is only 17 million.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 2:46 pm to Pelefraan 1
I mean, I still want to trade Lonzo for LaVine or Beal, but I definitely don't want to trade him now for scraps and picks.
His improved play means that we wouldn't have to give up nearly as much as we thought in a Beal or LaVine trade.
His improved play means that we wouldn't have to give up nearly as much as we thought in a Beal or LaVine trade.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 2:49 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
a team trades for him b/c they control him once they get him b/c he's a RFA.
I get that, but the market for Lonzo isn’t massive as is.
If there is a team out there who is willing to pay near max money for Lonzo, they have to figure their offer sheet will win out. So why give up picks and/or players for a guy you think you can get in four months?
I could see this argument if it were a better player, but I have to figure that one near max offer for Lonzo will get it done.
Posted on 3/2/21 at 2:52 pm to Baron
quote:There's a decent amount of money out there, and I could see Lonzo waiting it out a bit. A team like Chicago could be Atlanta this past year and can strike out on the "big" names that are out there and offer Lonzo like Atlanta offered Bogdan last year.
He’s a restricted FA. Not a lot of teams are usually willing to tie up $26million on their books for 3 days waiting for the possibility the other team matches. Free agency moves too fast in the first 72 hours to risk it. I don’t see that happening for Lonzo.
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