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Week 2 NFL Bet Thread
Posted on 9/11/18 at 11:11 am
Posted on 9/11/18 at 11:11 am
Current Lines:
BAL @ CIN +1
IND @ WSH -5.5
KC @ PIT -5
CLE @ NO -8.5
PHI @ TB +3
CAR @ ATL -5.5
MIA @ NYJ -3
LAC @ BUF +7.5
DET @ SF -5.5
ARI @ LAR -13
NE @ JAX +2
OAK @ DEN -6
NYG @ DAL -3
SEA @ CHI -3.5
TBD:
HOU @ TEN (Injuries)
MIN @ GB (Injuries)
Pick(s) so far:
Baltimore PK @ Cinci (Thursday)
This game has been circled all offseason for Baltimore due to revenge factor for last game of the season in 2017, Burfict still not playing for Cinci. Interesting to see what the line does - I think it's priced about right from a market perspective, but it just seems like Baltimore is going to win this one going away.
Initial thoughts on other games:
Miami +3 @ NYJ. Want to fade the Darnold hype train - probably can wait on this one.
Arizona +13 @ Rams. Short week for Rams, divisional opponent. Seems too high.
KC +5 @ Pitt. I respect their homefield prowess, but Pittsburgh is still overrated.
San Fran -5.5 vs Detroit. I feel like fading Fat Pencil Man all season until proven otherwise. Detroit has serious issues on both OL and DL. Will want to see the injury report on Ziggy Ansah.
BAL @ CIN +1
IND @ WSH -5.5
KC @ PIT -5
CLE @ NO -8.5
PHI @ TB +3
CAR @ ATL -5.5
MIA @ NYJ -3
LAC @ BUF +7.5
DET @ SF -5.5
ARI @ LAR -13
NE @ JAX +2
OAK @ DEN -6
NYG @ DAL -3
SEA @ CHI -3.5
TBD:
HOU @ TEN (Injuries)
MIN @ GB (Injuries)
Pick(s) so far:
Baltimore PK @ Cinci (Thursday)
This game has been circled all offseason for Baltimore due to revenge factor for last game of the season in 2017, Burfict still not playing for Cinci. Interesting to see what the line does - I think it's priced about right from a market perspective, but it just seems like Baltimore is going to win this one going away.
Initial thoughts on other games:
Miami +3 @ NYJ. Want to fade the Darnold hype train - probably can wait on this one.
Arizona +13 @ Rams. Short week for Rams, divisional opponent. Seems too high.
KC +5 @ Pitt. I respect their homefield prowess, but Pittsburgh is still overrated.
San Fran -5.5 vs Detroit. I feel like fading Fat Pencil Man all season until proven otherwise. Detroit has serious issues on both OL and DL. Will want to see the injury report on Ziggy Ansah.
8
Posted on 9/11/18 at 11:13 am to Billy Mays
First glanve, I like the Redskins and Steelers. Havent done any research yet though.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 11:15 am to Billy Mays
Like the Niners at that number. As you said, Detroit looks to have serious issues. Usually try and stay away from teams that are coming off blowout losses, but I think this one could get to 7.
Will probably hop on the Giants if it gets back to 3.5 as well.
Will probably hop on the Giants if it gets back to 3.5 as well.
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 11:17 am
Posted on 9/11/18 at 11:18 am to Billy Mays
quote:
NE @ JAX +2
i dont have a side yet but i cannot wait for this game
eta: week 2 schedule blows
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 11:19 am
Posted on 9/11/18 at 11:22 am to Winston Cup
quote:
i dont have a side yet but i cannot wait for this game
It's definitely the game of the week, and I can't help but like NE. Tom Brady (GOAT) vs. Blake Bortles (2nd Worst starting QB in NFL) - seems elementary to me.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 11:39 am to Billy Mays
quote:
Miami +3 @ NYJ. Want to fade the Darnold hype train - probably can wait on this one.
I like Darnold but Miami will probably win this outright.
quote:
PHI @ TB +3
PHI all day here
quote:
ARI @ LAR -13
... Redskins ate Bradford's lunch but my goodness that's huge for a divisional game. Rams going to win it but Cards should cover quote:
IND @ WSH -5.5
Washington at home... Alex Smith pain train
quote:
CAR @ ATL -5.5
Not touching this one
quote:
CLE @ NO -8.5
HATE
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 11:40 am
Posted on 9/11/18 at 1:07 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Miami +3 @ NYJ. Want to fade the Darnold hype train - probably can wait on this one.
Jets-Dogs in Miami games are 77-49 ATS
Saints are 18-8 as a favorite off a SU loss
Lions are 0-10 vs SF
Oakland = Favorites (Denver)after playing Seattle are 14-25-1 ATS
These trends are like a couple years old but just thought Id pass them on. Some trends work and some dont.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 4:24 pm to saintsfan1977
Anyone not taking Pittsburgh is throwing away their money. Every time Pittsburgh has played Kansas City anywhere at any time in the last five years they have completely dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage. They are a very bad match up for the Chiefs. They will have at least 125 more yards rushing than the Chiefs and that is even without Bell. The Chiefs had no one in their secondary that could stay within ten yards of San Diego's wide receivers. How are they going to cover Brown? And unlike San Diego's receivers the Steelers receivers do not have tennis rackets for hands. Steelers will win by at least two touchdowns.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:04 pm to Billy Mays
I need some help with updating a spreadsheet for NFL betting.
Rating of positions from -2.0 to 5.0 for each of the below criteria:
QB
RB1
RB2
WR1
WR2
TE
OL
K
DL
LB
DB1
DB2
Pass Rush
Scoring D
Special Teams (Outside of PK)
Take Aways (D ability to get TOs)
Its early in the year so this is probably suited for after W4. Does anyone want to help evaluate each NFL team's above position(s)?
Basically for QB, guys like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc will be 4.5 to 5.0.
At WR, for instance, the Dallas WRs will be something like 1.0 for WR1 and .5 for WR2.
Anyone, anyone?
Rating of positions from -2.0 to 5.0 for each of the below criteria:
QB
RB1
RB2
WR1
WR2
TE
OL
K
DL
LB
DB1
DB2
Pass Rush
Scoring D
Special Teams (Outside of PK)
Take Aways (D ability to get TOs)
Its early in the year so this is probably suited for after W4. Does anyone want to help evaluate each NFL team's above position(s)?
Basically for QB, guys like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc will be 4.5 to 5.0.
At WR, for instance, the Dallas WRs will be something like 1.0 for WR1 and .5 for WR2.
Anyone, anyone?
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:11 pm to 88Wildcat
Sounds like the Over is the play in Pitt/KC provided the hurricane has blown thru.
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:28 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Blake Bortles (2nd Worst starting QB in NFL)
You're an idiot.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 6:01 pm to Tom288
Bless your heart.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:01 pm to Billy Mays
Cinci 5-1 at home SU vs Baltimore last 6 years. Last year was the only loss 20-0.
Took cinci +1 (-110)
Took cinci +1 (-110)
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:10 pm to Billy Mays
Philly and Carolina
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:03 pm to Captain Ron
quote:
Does anyone want to help evaluate each NFL team's above position(s)?
Use SDQL and scrape the passing, rushing, team stats. Use those to rank the positions.
The hardest part is valuating the performance of the OLIne and Dlines since you can only use rushing and sacks.
PFF could probably provide the stats for those but I believe you have to pay for it.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:23 pm to JohnnyTour11
I feel like ATL will be backed by the pros bc of the somewhat misleading non-cover vs. Philly. Both teams have legit injuries already. ATL lost Neal and Deion Jones, CAR lost their LT and Greg Olsen.
Posted on 9/13/18 at 10:15 am to Billy Mays
Tonight Cincinnati PK
Under 44
Parlay Cin +1.5 & U 45.5 +105
Under 44
Parlay Cin +1.5 & U 45.5 +105
This post was edited on 9/13/18 at 10:21 am
Posted on 9/13/18 at 10:22 am to Billy Mays
atl-car i think is the hardest game this week simply because we dont know what we are getting from carolina.
what is their motivation in this game?
are they too distracted from hurricane stuff at home?
leaving carolina early yesterday to get ahead of the storm throw off their normal practice routine?
can anyone replace greg olsen?
trai turner out, how healthy is luke kuechly?
too many questions. last 9/10 in the series have gone under the total. easy to like the dog and points in an under game, but again so many ? around the panthers right now. atl money line may be a safer play
what is their motivation in this game?
are they too distracted from hurricane stuff at home?
leaving carolina early yesterday to get ahead of the storm throw off their normal practice routine?
can anyone replace greg olsen?
trai turner out, how healthy is luke kuechly?
too many questions. last 9/10 in the series have gone under the total. easy to like the dog and points in an under game, but again so many ? around the panthers right now. atl money line may be a safer play
Posted on 9/13/18 at 10:37 am to Winston Cup
I was looking at Atlanta as soon as the schedule came out but now Atlanta is dinged up. They do have 10 days to prepare for Carolina though. And like you said Carolina might be distracted with the hurricane.
Posted on 9/13/18 at 10:41 am to Billy Mays
KC @ PIT -5
CLE @ NO -8.5
PHI @ TB +3
CAR @ ATL -5.5
OAK @ DEN -6
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