re: Unofficial 11/16/17 NBA Thread: GSW @ BOS edition

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His stats across the board are *slightly* better in the regular season. But that’s nearly 400 regular season games compared to 45 playoffs games... it’s pretty amazing that the numbers are as similar as they are.

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The issue IMO is consistency.

He completely shits the bed 1-2 times each series, generally speaking.

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Harden with the Rockets:

TS% reg season: 60%
TS% playoffs: 58%

Turnovers reg season per 36: 4.2
Turnovers playoffs per 36: 4.3


His stats across the board are *slightly* better in the regular season. But that’s nearly 400 regular season games compared to 45 playoffs games... it’s pretty amazing that the numbers are as similar as they are.

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Well the issue is the varying sample sizes in the playoffs. Specifically, there is a smaller sample when a player is playing terrible because they are knocked out early, and a larger sample--and thus a greater weighting--when a player is playing great.

So let's just compare a season by season comparison of a bunch of statistics. A negative number indicates a statistics got worse in the postseason.

Field Goal Percentage (negative indicates decrease)
12-13 (-4.7%)
13-14 (-8.0%)
14-15 (-0.1%)
15-16 (-2.9%)
16-17 (-2.7%)
Average (-3.7%)
Median (-2.9%)

Effective Field Goal Percentage (negative indicates decrease)
12-13 (-4.7%)
13-14 (-9.3%)
14-15 (-0.2%)
15-16 (-3.7%)
16-17 (-3.9%)
Average (-4.4%)
Median (-3.9%)

True Shooting Percentage (negative indicates decrease)
12-13 (-5.2%)
13-14 (-9.9%)
14-15 (+1.5%)
15-16 (-4.3%)
16-17 (-3.0%)
Average (-4.2%)
Median (-4.3%)

Turnovers Per Game (negative indicates increase)
12-13 (-0.70)
13-14 (+0.10)
14-15 (-0.50)
15-16 (-0.60)
16-17 (+0.30)
Average (-0.28)
Median (-0.50)


Turnover Percentage (negative indicates increase)
12-13 (-0.9%)
13-14 (+3.1%)
14-15 (-2.2%)
15-16 (-1.9%)
16-17 (+1.5%)
Average (-0.1%)
Median (-0.9%)

Player Efficiency Rating (negative indicates decrease)
12-13 (-2.20)
13-14 (-5.20)
14-15 (-1.90)
15-16 (-3.50)
16-17 (-4.40)
Average (-3.44)
Median (-3.50)

Box Plus Minus (negative indicates decrease)
12-13 (-1.70)
13-14 (-3.00)
14-15 (-0.90)
15-16 (+0.30)
16-17 (-2.20)
Average (-1.50)
Median (-1.70)


So clearly Harden’s shooting percentages, PER, Box Score Plus Minus, Turnovers Per Game, and Turnover Percentage worsens from the regular season to the postseason. 2014-2015 was the one post season where her shooting improved, and of course because he played better, they went further into the playoffs so that season accounts for 17 of his 45 postseason games with Houston (37.8%), which disproportionately weights it compared to the seasons where he played worse and got knocked out earlier.

basically every player EVER performs worse in the playoffs than regular season. You are playing a good squad every night (unless you are in the east). There are no suns and bulls in there to boost your averages.

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basically every player EVER performs worse in the playoffs than regular season. You are playing a good squad every night (unless you are in the east). There are no suns and bulls in there to boost your averages.

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Very true. The deceases are normal, and he's still a great player (game 6 against Spurs aside) even with those.

They are a couple noteworthy exceptions though:

538: LeBron Doesn’t Get Better In The Playoffs. He’s Always This Good.

Looks like he has decreased.

And also a lot of times Lebrons playoff schedule is easier than a regular season schedule bc he avoids the big dogs in the west until the finals. whereas if you are in the west your schedule will always be very very tough if you advance even a little.

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Looks like he has decreased.

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Yes. The two highest rated players of all time, had two of the smallest deceases or all time, despite the phenomenon you noted and regression to the mean--which SHOULD have a greater impact on the highest rated players.

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And also a lot of times Lebrons playoff schedule is easier than a regular season schedule bc he avoids the big dogs in the west until the finals. whereas if you are in the west your schedule will always be very very tough if you advance even a little.

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O what a load of a crap. 97 of LeBron's 217 (44.7%) playoff games have either been in the conference finals or NBA finals, including playing against some of the greatest teams of all time in the last few finals.

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The east conference finalists would be first rd exit teams in the west more times than not during Lebrons current finals runs.

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In LeBron's 9 ECF appearances, the average net adjusted rating (per 100 possessions) of his opponents is 4.52.

When the Rockets made the WCF in 14-15, their net adjusted rating was 4.01. Even including this year's net adjusted rating (6.68) which is the highest since Harden has been in Houston, the Rockets have an average rating of 4.31.

So you're right: the ECF opponents are slightly better than the Houston Rockets, so I guess their slightly better than a team that has exited in the first round 3 of the last 5 seasons.

Good observation about the ECF and the Rockets. We could probably start using the Rockets as a baseline quality for a first round exit then--according to your logic.