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Started By
Message
To the statisticians: What are odds that draft positions = lottery position?
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:42 am
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:42 am
25.0% Suxers get 1
18.8% Lakers get 2
15.6% Nets get 3
Would it be a simple multiplication?
.25*.188*.156 = 0.007332?
So, based on the discussion, it seems to be 1.87%
18.8% Lakers get 2
15.6% Nets get 3
Would it be a simple multiplication?
.25*.188*.156 = 0.007332?
So, based on the discussion, it seems to be 1.87%
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 10:53 am
6
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:43 am to Jester
once the sixers are selected 1st, wouldn't that alter the percentages of who gets #2? and then so on and so forth for the pick after that?
eta: the lakers' 18.8% chance to get pick #2 accounts for the fact that they might get pick #1. once pick #1 is taken, that should alter those percentages.
eta: the lakers' 18.8% chance to get pick #2 accounts for the fact that they might get pick #1. once pick #1 is taken, that should alter those percentages.
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 10:46 am
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:45 am to Jester
You'd have to figure what the Lakers odds are once the 76ers get #1. So it's 25% to start, then whatever the Lakers chances are out of 750 combinations left, times whatever the Celtics odds are out of 750 less the Lakers combinations.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:45 am to Jester
The lakers % is higher than that once the 76ers get the 1st pick and so on
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:46 am to UNO
quote:
once the sixers are selected 1st, wouldn't that alter the percentages of who gets #2? and then so on and so forth for the pick after that?
That's kind of why I was asking. I'm sure I could figure it out after an hour or so, but someone with more than 3 credits in statistics could probably answer it in no time.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:46 am to Jester
It's still low, but not nearly as low as your calculation.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:48 am to Jester
No, once the sixers get the first pick, the odds for the laker s to get the 2 increase and the same for the 3. Quick math in my head puts it at about 1.8% chance.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:48 am to slackster
quote:
You'd have to figure what the Lakers odds are once the 76ers get #1. So it's 25% to start, then whatever the Lakers chances are out of 750 combinations left, times whatever the Celtics odds are out of 750 less the Lakers combinations.
Yeah, and then the forumla is probably
1 - (1 - PHI%)*(1 - LAL%)*(1 - Nets%).
I think. It's been a little while
Or maybe it's (1 - PHI%)*(1 - LAL%)*(1 - Nets%).
I can't remember
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 10:51 am
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:49 am to slackster
quote:
You'd have to figure what the Lakers odds are once the 76ers get #1. So it's 25% to start, then whatever the Lakers chances are out of 750 combinations left, times whatever the Celtics odds are out of 750 less the Lakers combinations.
So....
(250/1001) * (199/751) * (156/552) = (250*199*156) / (1001*751*552) = 7761000/414966552 = 1.87%
Combos (1001 Total):
1. 250
2. 199
3. 156
4. 119
5. 88
6. 63
7. 43
8. 28
9. 17
10. 11
11. 8
12. 7
13. 6
14. 5
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 10:52 am
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:50 am to Spitting Venom
It's like 1.87% if my math is correct.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:52 am to slackster
288
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:54 am to KosmoCramer
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:55 am to Jester
quote:That's not the correct way to do it. You are treating it like threw independent events, but when the Nets got position 3, the conditional probabilities for positions 1 and 2 changed and each team had a better chance getting their respective positions.
Would it be a simple multiplication?
.25*.188*.156 = 0.007332?
1.87% may be correct. It would be the 15.6% multiplied by whatever the updated probabilites for 1 and 2 are.
I got 4.7% if I'm interpreting the percentages you posted as the probability of obtaining that specific position.
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 11:01 am
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:58 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
That's not the correct way to do it. You are treating it like threw independent events, but when the Nets got position 3, the conditional probabilities for positions 1 and 2 changed and each team had a better chance getting their respective positions.
1.87% may be correct. It would be the 15.6% multiplied by whatever the updated probabilites for 1 and 2 are.
Pretty sure they draw 1 first, then 2, then 3. They just announce it the other way around for drama.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 11:02 am to Jester
quote:Nevermind, I for some reason forgot that teams 4-14 have a chance so this is incorrect.
Pretty sure they draw 1 first, then 2, then 3. They just announce it the other way around for drama.
It is 1.878%.
It's 0.25*0.265333*0.283122
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 11:11 am
Posted on 5/18/16 at 11:07 am to buckeye_vol
250/1000 = .25
199/750 = .26533
156/551 = .28312
.25*.26533*.28312 = .01878
is that right?
199/750 = .26533
156/551 = .28312
.25*.26533*.28312 = .01878
is that right?
Posted on 5/18/16 at 11:08 am to burdman
Looks good to me.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 11:10 am to burdman
quote:Yeah. I was assuming only positions 1-3 were in the lottery. But your math is correct since 4-14 has a chance too.
250/1000 = .25
199/750 = .26533
156/551 = .28312
.25*.26533*.28312 = .01878
is that right?
Also for the conspiracy theorists (not you), they need to realize that even the 1.878% is low, it the most likely single combination.
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 11:12 am
Posted on 5/18/16 at 11:12 am to buckeye_vol
I gotcha. I'm always weary to throw math out around here because I know there's a lot of people who are smarter than me
Posted on 5/18/16 at 11:12 am to burdman
You did good with it, or you coulda just looked at my post
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