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Started By
Message
Those of you into Card Collecting (non-vintage), be warned. It’s the junk-grading era.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 8:30 pm
Posted on 5/10/21 at 8:30 pm
First off, I’ve been in the hobby for 28+ years. Seen the ups, downs and arounds. I’ve been kind of wading back into the market lately by watching tons of breaks, resells, etc. on social media and through EBay.
There are some major problems:
1. Limited distribution and markup resell. Regular consumers do not have access to regular wax product. Retail hanger boxes are going for $150.00 for Prizm and Select. Hobby is going for upwards of $800.00. Mega boxes are about $500.00. This is all the resell market because there are no storefronts anymore besides Walmart and Target. You’re not getting product from them because people camp outside.
2. The price point of entering the market mentioned above, combined with the over production has resulted in people spending $500.00 and receiving about $30-$40 in resell value. The entire product’s value is based in the pre-package. There is no residual value.
The card companies responded to the pandemic demand by….printing more cards. How you think that’s going to work out?
The only thing legit owning is low serial numbered cards. Taking 10 or less. Even then, the price for those make it cost prohibitive. It’s a card. No matter what value they attach to a 1/3 or 1/1 card, Joey B’s auto is only worth so much. The most demanded cards are never insert 1/1s (which again I believe this is manipulated for higher end cards- think Monopoly scandal of the 90s). It’s always base graded low print RCs with an attached grading of GM 10…
3. Which brings me to the last and final point. Grading isn’t worth crap anymore because during the pandemic Zion Williamson broke them. 330,000 individual base Zion Williamson cards were graded. So many were submitted they’ve quit taking cards to grade. Zion’s are not going to be worth owning. The market is so flooded with “graded” cards it’s hardly the prestige it once held. Gem Mint 10s are a dime a dozen of any rookie. The values are over inflated for the modern era and you’re lucky to crack $80 for 97% of the premium RCs of players like Zion, Herbert and Burrow.
I keep telling my nephew. Modern day cards are not an investment. It’s a junk bubble fueled by nostalgia, mass production and literally…shiny things.
Don’t get caught up folks. The returns aren’t there. Even for premium auto cards.
There are some major problems:
1. Limited distribution and markup resell. Regular consumers do not have access to regular wax product. Retail hanger boxes are going for $150.00 for Prizm and Select. Hobby is going for upwards of $800.00. Mega boxes are about $500.00. This is all the resell market because there are no storefronts anymore besides Walmart and Target. You’re not getting product from them because people camp outside.
2. The price point of entering the market mentioned above, combined with the over production has resulted in people spending $500.00 and receiving about $30-$40 in resell value. The entire product’s value is based in the pre-package. There is no residual value.
The card companies responded to the pandemic demand by….printing more cards. How you think that’s going to work out?
The only thing legit owning is low serial numbered cards. Taking 10 or less. Even then, the price for those make it cost prohibitive. It’s a card. No matter what value they attach to a 1/3 or 1/1 card, Joey B’s auto is only worth so much. The most demanded cards are never insert 1/1s (which again I believe this is manipulated for higher end cards- think Monopoly scandal of the 90s). It’s always base graded low print RCs with an attached grading of GM 10…
3. Which brings me to the last and final point. Grading isn’t worth crap anymore because during the pandemic Zion Williamson broke them. 330,000 individual base Zion Williamson cards were graded. So many were submitted they’ve quit taking cards to grade. Zion’s are not going to be worth owning. The market is so flooded with “graded” cards it’s hardly the prestige it once held. Gem Mint 10s are a dime a dozen of any rookie. The values are over inflated for the modern era and you’re lucky to crack $80 for 97% of the premium RCs of players like Zion, Herbert and Burrow.
I keep telling my nephew. Modern day cards are not an investment. It’s a junk bubble fueled by nostalgia, mass production and literally…shiny things.
Don’t get caught up folks. The returns aren’t there. Even for premium auto cards.
17
Posted on 5/10/21 at 8:36 pm to DiamondDog
quote:
First off, I’ve been in the hobby for 28+ years.
Hasn't this largely been true the entire time you have been collecting? Since the proliferation of card companies in 1989 and the subsets from those companies it has been watered down. I’d collect for fun, but for money I would only collect the extremely high valued older cards.
This post was edited on 5/11/21 at 8:29 am
Posted on 5/10/21 at 8:38 pm to DiamondDog
The People that prioritize a card’s grade or resell are who fricked up the hobby for people who actually enjoyed it for the collecting.
It happens with everything that’s a hobby it seems…shoes, bourbon, PS5, etc….
Thankfully my team blows arse so all of the cards I want are cheap as frick.
It happens with everything that’s a hobby it seems…shoes, bourbon, PS5, etc….
Thankfully my team blows arse so all of the cards I want are cheap as frick.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 8:42 pm to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Hasn't this largely been true the entire time you have n collecting?
1995-1998
2001-2005
Those were the two modern era worth collecting. Coincided with actual premium NBA athletes: MJ, Kobe Bryant and LeBron.
Basketball cards will always be more valuable than baseball and football card in the modern era. I have no idea why. The values are just not comparable.
A premium athlete in basketball has a higher visibility and premium than anything in baseball and football.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 8:42 pm to DiamondDog
My friend Don West strongly disagrees.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 8:55 pm to DiamondDog
quote:
I have no idea why.
quote:
A premium athlete in basketball has a higher visibility and premium than anything in baseball and football.
Seems like you grasp it pretty well actually.
I mentioned the other day I found myself at a card show this past weekend for probably the first time in 15 years, I was floored at the amount of money people were selling/buying for.
This post was edited on 5/10/21 at 8:56 pm
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:11 pm to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
I’d collect for fun, but for money I would only collect the extremely high valued older cards.
I got into the buy/resell game in 2012-2014. Probably spent a solid $10,000.00 in buying, busting and selling wax. Ended up giving entire collection to kids in the neighborhood once I liquidated the higher end profits (handful of cards).
If you have a kid you’re wanting to get into the product, encourage them to collect specific players. General collecting like I used to do as a kid just will never pay dividends for your pocket or their collection.
To give you some perspective for how far values have inflated. Skybox used to be $2.50 in 1994-1995. The year before, Topps Finest entered the market at a storefront of $10.00 a pack. You know how wickedly absurd that was back then? It blew all our minds as 12 year olds. Our middle class parents couldn’t believe it.
A buddy of mine saved up for three packs of 1995 Topps Finest NBA. He busted a Jordan base. Sold it back to the shop for $50.00 on the spot. It was like we won the frickin lottery. Even the frickin commons were going for $3.00 a piece according to Beckett values.
Contrast that to today…NBA Hoops and Topps Opening Day which are junk cards (if anybody tells you different they’re a liar or a hustler) go for $5/pack. Select and Prizm are going for $50 and $40 a pack. A four card pack. Except the commons aren’t worth anything. Nobody collects commons. They’re filler. Who wants a Prizm Mekhai Becton (seriously, who has ever collected a LT?)?
The whole thing has become a straight hustle. I loathe Pokémon but if they’d be better off spending their dollars there.
The sports card market has become a vanity affair bubble for adults.
This post was edited on 5/10/21 at 9:12 pm
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:18 pm to DiamondDog
Are the formerly “junk” cards (‘88-92 baseball cards) worth anything these days?
Billy Ripken “frickface, scratchout with a loop”?
Gregg Jeffries Rookie?
In all seriousness, are
Griffey, Jr and McGuire rookies worth more than twenty bucks or so? Nongraded.
Billy Ripken “frickface, scratchout with a loop”?
Gregg Jeffries Rookie?
In all seriousness, are
Griffey, Jr and McGuire rookies worth more than twenty bucks or so? Nongraded.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:20 pm to DiamondDog
quote:
into Card Collecting
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:23 pm to Ric Flair
quote:
Billy Ripken “frickface, scratchout with a loop”?
Gregg Jeffries Rookie?
Your entertainment is worth more.
quote:
In all seriousness, are
Griffey, Jr and McGuire rookies worth more than twenty bucks or so? Nongraded
No. Griffey was overproduced. Gem Mint 10 Upper Deck carries some weight. They’ll sell about $2K all day. The Fleer version worth about $100 GM 10. The Topps Traded will go for a couple hundo.
Raw. Again; unless it’s worth sending in, not worth your time. I don’t call $100 worth my time but you might be able to get that for an UD Griffey with graded potential.
UD Griffey BGS 8 goes for $90-$100. So the drop off is steep for quality.
This post was edited on 5/10/21 at 9:25 pm
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:24 pm to Giant Leaf
quote:
Giant Leaf
That's not nice.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:26 pm to 93and99
quote:
That's not nice.
Accuracy was the only goal
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:27 pm to Giant Leaf
What are trying to say. Don’t be coy.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:28 pm to DiamondDog
quote:
What are trying to say. Don’t be coy.
That they are retards
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:31 pm to DiamondDog
You could have easily summed your whole post up in like 2 sentences
1. You'll rarely get your value back on sealed product, no matter the MSRP or scalper value
2. Collect cards you enjoy
People are getting so pissy now that they can't waste money gambling on packs when in reality it's doing them a favor. Just go out and buy the cards you want, they're dirt cheap raw unless you want to go for serial #'d.
On the Zion bit, as long as he continues his historic run, his cards aren't bad buys in PSA 10, even with the stupid pop reports. They've pretty much bottomed out ~$50 right now for base cards. Any parallel is a great buy
1. You'll rarely get your value back on sealed product, no matter the MSRP or scalper value
2. Collect cards you enjoy
People are getting so pissy now that they can't waste money gambling on packs when in reality it's doing them a favor. Just go out and buy the cards you want, they're dirt cheap raw unless you want to go for serial #'d.
On the Zion bit, as long as he continues his historic run, his cards aren't bad buys in PSA 10, even with the stupid pop reports. They've pretty much bottomed out ~$50 right now for base cards. Any parallel is a great buy
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:36 pm to DiamondDog
quote:
First off, I’ve been in the hobby for 28+ years. Seen the ups, downs and arounds. I’ve been kind of wading back into the market lately by watching tons of breaks, resells, etc. on social media and through EBay.
There are some major problems:
1. Limited distribution and markup resell. Regular consumers do not have access to regular wax product. Retail hanger boxes are going for $150.00 for Prizm and Select. Hobby is going for upwards of $800.00. Mega boxes are about $500.00. This is all the resell market because there are no storefronts anymore besides Walmart and Target. You’re not getting product from them because people camp outside.
2. The price point of entering the market mentioned above, combined with the over production has resulted in people spending $500.00 and receiving about $30-$40 in resell value. The entire product’s value is based in the pre-package. There is no residual value.
The card companies responded to the pandemic demand by….printing more cards. How you think that’s going to work out?
The only thing legit owning is low serial numbered cards. Taking 10 or less. Even then, the price for those make it cost prohibitive. It’s a card. No matter what value they attach to a 1/3 or 1/1 card, Joey B’s auto is only worth so much. The most demanded cards are never insert 1/1s (which again I believe this is manipulated for higher end cards- think Monopoly scandal of the 90s). It’s always base graded low print RCs with an attached grading of GM 10…
3. Which brings me to the last and final point. Grading isn’t worth crap anymore because during the pandemic Zion Williamson broke them. 330,000 individual base Zion Williamson cards were graded. So many were submitted they’ve quit taking cards to grade. Zion’s are not going to be worth owning. The market is so flooded with “graded” cards it’s hardly the prestige it once held. Gem Mint 10s are a dime a dozen of any rookie. The values are over inflated for the modern era and you’re lucky to crack $80 for 97% of the premium RCs of players like Zion, Herbert and Burrow.
I keep telling my nephew. Modern day cards are not an investment. It’s a junk bubble fueled by nostalgia, mass production and literally…shiny things.
Don’t get caught up folks. The returns aren’t there. Even for premium auto cards
So what you’re saying is you’re mad you can’t walk into Walmart and find cards. Got it
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:41 pm to bluebarracuda
quote:
You could have easily summed your whole post up in like 2 sentences
Probably but people generally want a feel for your thought process and actual reasons.
quote:
Just go out and buy the cards you want, they're dirt cheap raw unless you want to go for serial #'d.
And that’s how I know I’ve outgrew the hobby. I don’t care about collecting one player. I’ve got a master collection of Mark Teixeira that can teach you a couple things about collecting mistakes.
quote:
On the Zion bit, as long as he continues his historic run, his cards aren't bad buys in PSA 10, even with the stupid pop reports. They've pretty much bottomed out ~$50 right now for base cards. Any parallel is a great buy
Disagree and I’ll tell you why: Hideo Nomo. Anybody who lived through this hype monster will tell you he has to do it consistently for years and years. He has to be an all-timer of all time to meet the hype that’s been set.
Hideo Nomo RC was the hottest RC out there in 1995. It kicked around and then finally tanked for good in 1997. Believe it or not, it wasn’t mass produced.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:44 pm to gadknot
quote:
So what you’re saying is you’re mad you can’t walk into Walmart and find cards. Got it
Ughhh. More like limited distribution channels combined with artificially inflated product. It’s PS5 Black Friday every day.
I enjoyed the hobby when there were small business retail outlets. Retail boxes you find in Walmart and Target are junk. You won’t pull the same as in Hobby boxes.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:45 pm to DiamondDog
The assholes that camp out at Target and WalMart play a major role in ruining things for the casual buyer. I like to bust packs. I don’t care if it’s NBA Hoops and Score, just something to get my fix. It’s nice pulling some rookies, players on my favorite team, LSU guys, etc.
The ONLY reason it has been impossible to find anything at the stores is because literal bums are paid to go in and buy boxes. Target limited to 3 per customer. Then it was 1 per customer. Now it’s one per customer per day. They hold the cards behind the customer service counter on Friday. After that day, they seem to disappear, even the hockey shite which always stays on the shelves.
The only value is reselling the boxes and packs or via breaks. Once it’s open, it never holds value. I’m not sure how this hasn’t been realized by the buyers wanting to get some major hit. Those hits aren’t coming in retail boxes and packs.
The ONLY reason it has been impossible to find anything at the stores is because literal bums are paid to go in and buy boxes. Target limited to 3 per customer. Then it was 1 per customer. Now it’s one per customer per day. They hold the cards behind the customer service counter on Friday. After that day, they seem to disappear, even the hockey shite which always stays on the shelves.
The only value is reselling the boxes and packs or via breaks. Once it’s open, it never holds value. I’m not sure how this hasn’t been realized by the buyers wanting to get some major hit. Those hits aren’t coming in retail boxes and packs.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:53 pm to DiamondDog
quote:
I’ve got a master collection of Mark Teixeira that can teach you a couple things about collecting mistakes
There are no collecting mistakes if you're collecting what you enjoy and like
If you're just in collecting for the money, you're going to have a bad time no matter what you're collecting
Edit: I do agree that there are too many junk cards being graded right now. You think it's bad in sports cards right now, Pokemon is far worse.
This post was edited on 5/10/21 at 10:04 pm
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