re: The worst game decision in the history of the NFL

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

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Baloo

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You've been reading my posts this morning haven't you? From earlier today...

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And then factor the probability of TOM BRADY and the Patriots receivers gaining two yards. Then factor the probability PEYTON MANNING and the Colts receivers driving the field in a 2 minute offense.

I don't fault Belichek. You want the game in the hands of your best players/unit. And the offense was his best shot at winning that game.

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Logically it was a good call IMO. The only reason I might not do it is because I wouldn't want to offend my defense and make them think I don't have faith in them. All things equal, go with the math. The math says go for it. Either way Manning probably would have driven down for the touchdown. I'd put the odds at about 60-65 percent chance to score the td if they get it at 30 and about 50 percent chance if they get it at their own 35 or so. 50 is a high estimation but fair based on Peyton Manning and the Colts offense. The former option carries a 70 percent chance that you end the game on that play.

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Baloo and I are correct. It was 100% the correct call. Belichick played the percentages correctly, but it didn't work out in his favor.

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After thinking about it and looking at the data, I've changed my mind. It was a good call. It probably would have been better had he not called timeout and simply run a play.

I actually fell asleep early Sunday night, and didn't see the finish. I did hear all of the talk about it, though. After seeing more last night I will conclude this:

Had Les Miles wasted a timeout at the start of the possession, and then burnt another one before going for it, the Rant would be an epic meltdown. So I will say that the Patriots deserved to lose. But, I don't understand why most everyone is on the side of punting. When Tony Dungy was asked why do you punt, he could only answer, "You just do." Nobody gives a valid reason on why this is wrong, other than it offends your defense. Well, if the defense doesn't want to be offended, don't give up 14 pts. earlier in the 4th quarter.

Why is it such a given that the Colts automatically score from the Pats 30, but having to move another 40 yards from their own 30 gives them very little shot? With Peyton, time was not a factor there.

If the Pats had a time out, that replay call would have been very interesting.

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2 minutes is plenty enough time if you have a smart QB.

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Peyton Manning

It wasn't the worst call made on that drive...