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re: The Unofficial 2018 Non-GS Tennis Thread
Posted on 8/19/18 at 5:20 pm to MidnightVibe
Posted on 8/19/18 at 5:20 pm to MidnightVibe
Definitely free money.
Federer -140 when he’s played like arse and just served his way to the final, and now he’s going up against the best returner of serve ever?
Federer -140 when he’s played like arse and just served his way to the final, and now he’s going up against the best returner of serve ever?
1
Posted on 8/19/18 at 5:42 pm to BayouBengals03
Novak rightfully the favorite going into the US Open. Fed looked uncharacteristically sloppy despite making it to the final in Cincy. Hope Roger can get back into form, especially his return.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 7:00 pm to GumBro Jackson
Great win for novak. As a novak fan winning all the masters 1000’s is a heck of a deal. Hopeful for big things from him in New York.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 10:17 pm to TigerDog83
I want Novak to get at least 15 slams so there will be no doubt that he is considered at least* 3rd best all time.
*winning record vs roger and rafa. Most masters before all is said and done. All masters. don't @ me.
*winning record vs roger and rafa. Most masters before all is said and done. All masters. don't @ me.
This post was edited on 8/19/18 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 8/20/18 at 12:53 am to emanresu
quote:
winning record vs roger and rafa.
Almost certainly
quote:
All masters.
Not getting touched for 30 years.
quote:
Most masters before all is said and done.
Maybe not.
Posted on 8/20/18 at 1:32 am to MidnightVibe
https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/more-sports/2016-us-open-tennis-championships-thread/64918679/page-18/
You shouldn't have equivocated, bayou. You had it on the nose with your short answer.
quote:
re: 2016 U.S. Open Tennis Championships threadPosted on 9/7/16 at 11:09 pm to MidnightVibe Assume: you are watching the 2018 US Open and not the 2016 U.S. OPEN. Further assume: Juan Martin Del Potro has suffered no major setbacks to either wrist in the previous two years Hypothetical question: the highest ATP ranking achieved by JMDP is _____?
quote:
little billy
2
quote:
bayouracka
Short answer is 3. Long answer is that his current rank of 142 would make it tough to climb the rankings, so maybe 7.
quote:
MidnightVibe My answer is 1. Going out on a limb.
You shouldn't have equivocated, bayou. You had it on the nose with your short answer.
Posted on 8/20/18 at 8:46 am to emanresu
quote:
I want Novak to get at least 15 slams so there will be no doubt that he is considered at least* 3rd best all time.
*winning record vs roger and rafa. Most masters before all is said and done. All masters. don't @ me.
As a tangent off this, Rafa is within striking distance of catching Novak for weeks at #1.
Current Weeks at #1:
Live ranking points:
My contention is that Rafa is likely to stay #1 until the start of the clay court season. There are 35 weeks between now and then. He trails Novak by 37 weeks according to wikipedia, and 38 weeks according to ATP site (I actually think the wikipedia one is correct as the ATP site might be a week behind on the updates).
Once clay court season starts next year, he has a ton of points to defend, and so he's almost certainly not going to improve his ranking during the 2019 clay court season. And so from Monte Carlo on its' difficult to gauge how long he might hold on to the #1 ranking if others are earning points they didn't last season.
Rafa is at 10,040 points:
Points to defend between now and next clay court season:
US Open: 2,000
Beijing: 500
Shanghai: 600
Paris: 180
WTF: 0
Aussie Open: 360
Total: 3,640
Roger is at 7080 points
Points to defend between now and clay court season:
US Open: 360
Shanghai: 1,000
Basel 500
WTF: 600
Aussie: 2,000
Rotterdam: 500
IW: 600
Total: 5,560
Conclusion: Fed def ain't catching him
I'm not even going to do the numbers for Delpo and Alex Zverev because it's even worse than Fed's in terms of points behind Rafa + points to defend.
The only guy that could catch him is Novak.
Novak is currently at 4,445
Points to defend until Monte Carlo:
180
So, it's certainly possible for Djokovic to catch him if he went on a crazy run, but he'd still have to accrue 2,135 more points than Rafa between now and then to tie him. Which is significant.
In view of the above, I think it's very likely that Rafa will pass Djokovic on the weeks at #1 list at the end of April 2019. Whether Djokovic gets the ranking back after that is too much to speculate about this far in advance, but it certainly could happen as good as Djokovic is.
This post was edited on 8/20/18 at 8:49 am
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:01 am to MidnightVibe
Posted on 8/20/18 at 8:09 pm to MidnightVibe
Djokovic will be in the top 8 in New York. That's good.
Posted on 8/21/18 at 10:16 am to BayouBengals03
And here we go... US Open qualifying, Winston Salem, lots of tennis being played right now.
Posted on 8/22/18 at 11:57 am to Kingpenm3
Everybody Wang Chung -170
Posted on 8/22/18 at 11:57 am to MidnightVibe
Also, this Winston Salem field is a goddamn wasteland.
Posted on 8/23/18 at 8:51 am to MidnightVibe
quote:
Also, this Winston Salem field is a goddamn wasteland.
For sure.
R. Harrision has had a bit of luck and moved himself into the quarters though.
And C. Harrison has one win in qualifying and a decent path to a spot in the main draw.
Posted on 8/23/18 at 3:23 pm to Kingpenm3
Stevie just beat edmubd one and two.....huh?
Posted on 9/5/18 at 4:37 am to MidnightVibe
Carrying over some thoughts from the US Open thread since they apply more to tennis in general.
This is a really tricky subject that I haven't been able to grasp at a level that I would like. The problem is that you almost need to know each player inside and out to be able to say that a certain player is in form, out of form, playing out of his mind, etc. You also need to know their opponents to get a really good feel for their level, and it helps to watch the matches instead of looking at stats.
Additionally, some players have a huge performance range where they can beat, or lose to, almost anyone at any time, while the Goffin and Bautista types generally don't fluctuate much in their level of performance. On top of that, the younger players can improve significantly in a few months, and this can catch you by surprise if you haven't been following them closely.
Of course it has some meaning. But I think this is built into the betting odds close to 100% of the time. There simply won't be many cases where a guy played a fantastic match the previous round and neither the oddsmakers nor the betting public noticed. So my point was more along the lines of... there will be more opportunities to fade a player coming off a great performance than betting ON that player.
It's not often that a player follows up a great performance (by his standards) with an even better performance, even though that's exactly what Thiem did tonight and made both of us look bad. What I find interesting is that no one ever says, "Well Cilic looked like shite against De Minaur, so I'll take him over Goffin", yet players do follow up bad performances with good ones very often. I guess this ties back to Cilic having a wide range of possible outcomes, and something I may need to consider more when analyzing matches for players of his ilk.
quote:
So, I actually disagree with you re: recent results. A tennis player being at their absolute best is a wildly tenuous equilibrium that relies on physical health, freshness, confidence, and motivation. If someone had a bad serving day in round 1, there is probably a reason for that. Maybe they are in their own head. Maybe they have an ailment that is affecting their motion. But more often than not, whatever prevented them from serving well in round 1 will still be there in round 2.
This is a really tricky subject that I haven't been able to grasp at a level that I would like. The problem is that you almost need to know each player inside and out to be able to say that a certain player is in form, out of form, playing out of his mind, etc. You also need to know their opponents to get a really good feel for their level, and it helps to watch the matches instead of looking at stats.
Additionally, some players have a huge performance range where they can beat, or lose to, almost anyone at any time, while the Goffin and Bautista types generally don't fluctuate much in their level of performance. On top of that, the younger players can improve significantly in a few months, and this can catch you by surprise if you haven't been following them closely.
quote:
Anyway, point is...I do think a more temporally localized analysis is worthwhile.
Of course it has some meaning. But I think this is built into the betting odds close to 100% of the time. There simply won't be many cases where a guy played a fantastic match the previous round and neither the oddsmakers nor the betting public noticed. So my point was more along the lines of... there will be more opportunities to fade a player coming off a great performance than betting ON that player.
It's not often that a player follows up a great performance (by his standards) with an even better performance, even though that's exactly what Thiem did tonight and made both of us look bad. What I find interesting is that no one ever says, "Well Cilic looked like shite against De Minaur, so I'll take him over Goffin", yet players do follow up bad performances with good ones very often. I guess this ties back to Cilic having a wide range of possible outcomes, and something I may need to consider more when analyzing matches for players of his ilk.
Posted on 9/5/18 at 4:38 am to bayoucracka
This is not the US Open thread, in case anyone gets them confused.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 2:39 pm to bayoucracka
Remaining year important dates:
September 14-16 -- Davis Cup Semifinals
September 21-23 -- Laver Cup
October 7-14 -- Shanghai Masters
October 29- November 4 -- Paris Masters
November 6-10 -- Next Gen ATP Finals
November 11-18 -- Adult ATP Finals
November 23-25 --- Davis Cup Finals
September 14-16 -- Davis Cup Semifinals
September 21-23 -- Laver Cup
October 7-14 -- Shanghai Masters
October 29- November 4 -- Paris Masters
November 6-10 -- Next Gen ATP Finals
November 11-18 -- Adult ATP Finals
November 23-25 --- Davis Cup Finals
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:32 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:I cant beleive John is missing this to be at the birth of his child
Davis Cup Semifinals
He should name his kid Communist
Posted on 9/16/18 at 8:39 am to lsupride87
Ryan Harrison and Mike Bryan staved off elimination yesterday in a fifth set tiebreaker. Querrey beat Cilic this morning. Tiafoe is playing Coric as we speak. 
Posted on 9/23/18 at 6:52 pm to lsupride87
Europe wins Laver Cup. I'm glad Zverev finished it now because I would have felt bad for Kyrgios losing it to Djokovic. From what I saw today, it looked awesome and terrible all at once.
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